Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Mississippi
2. 50,000♦ Utah
3. 50,000♦ New Mexico
4. 50,000♦ Bucks
1. Mississippi- After watching the Rebels annihilate the Tigers on this very same court 82-59 last season, you might be inclined to think Ole Miss would be in for some payback today, but that's simply not the case and here's why:
First, this year's version of the Rebels is even better than last years. Ranked 15th in the country and sitting at 15-1, Ole Miss has benefited greatly from their freshman phenom G Chris Warren. He's joined in the backcourt, by 6'5 guard Eniel Polynice, who can not only score (12 ppg, 4 assists/game), but can also play defense (30 steals).
But the real mismatch is in the frontcourt, where 6'8 290 lbs Dwayne Curtis can and will control the paint. He's coming off a 20-point 12 rebound effort against Florida, and with Tigers F Korvotney Barber out with a broken hand, no one can stop him. F Kenny Williams (8 ppg 8 boards/game) occupies the other block, giving Ole Miss another strong option against a short-haned Auburn frontcourt in this one.
With such a tremendous edge in the paint, you can expect the Rebels high-powered offense to have their way with the Tigers defense today. Both teams are allowing 70 ppg over their last 5 games, but the BIG difference is the Rebels are allowing opponents to shoot just 41%, while the Tigers are allowing 51%... Needless to say, that's a huge difference.
Bottom line, if Auburn had its full compliment of weapons, maybe, just maybe, we'd side with the Tigers here. But you don't just lose your best frontline player and then turn around and compete with a team like Ole Miss, who's frontcourt is big, strong, and capable of controlling the game. Although it won't be as bad as last season, Ole Miss gets the solid road win and cover here.
Take Mississippi comfortably over Auburn as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Utah- While there's no doubt BYU is excellent at home (9-0), they've proven vulnerable on the road (2-3), and if you don't believe me, check out this afternoon's game at rival Utah.
The Utes are no joke at home (7-1), especially defensively, where they lockdown opponents to the tune of 54 ppg on 40% shooting! For all the success BYU has had on offense on friendly rims, its a completely different story in hostile territory, where they average just 65 ppg on 41% shooting. Utah's empahsis on defense is bad news for this Cougars team, which dropped in just 41 points on 33% shooting in their last road game at UNLV (one of the ugliest offensive efforts I've seen in a while).
Utah is one of the few teams in conference that can say they've got a solid answer for Cougars C Trent Plaisted. Their own bigman, Luke Nevill, is not only bigger (3 inches and 30 lbs.), but a better shot blocker (25 to 14 swats), and playing at home. Make no mistake, Plaisted disappeared in BYU's last road game at UNLV, scoring just 5 points and grabbing 6 rebounds in 23 minutes.
Finally, we know damn well these two teams don't like eachother, and the fact BYU won both match ups last year only fuels the Utes fire for revenge. In fact, the last time they played at the Hunstman Center, the Cougars handed the Utes a tough 76-66 loss... Payback's a bitch, and BYU finds that out the hard way in this one!
Take Utah at home over BYU in this MWC rivalry showdown.
3. New Mexico- Tough match up for Air Force, which has a lot of trouble on the road, going just 3-9-1 ATS over their last 13 away. They did get the win and cover at Wyoming in their last one, but a win over a flawed Cowboys team is hardly enough to change my mind about the Falcons road play.
More indicative of the Falcons true demeanor in hostile territory is their previous three road games - all losses - including a very ugly 58-36 loss at Utah two weeks ago. New Mexico's offense is well above average, scoring 76 ppg on an excellent 49% shooting at home... So how in the hell do you expect this road-weary Falcons squad to keep pace? Air Force averages only 54 ppg on 41% shooting away this season, a big part of the reason they've got only one true road win this year (at sorry-ass Wyoming).
If you've followed New Mexico basketball then you know how good of a bet they've been at home, going 8-2 ATS there this season! Not to mention they're also 12-4-1 ATS over their last 17 games overall. Coming off their first home loss of the season, a disappointing effort against San Diego State, look for the Lobos to come out fired up in this one. Don't get discouraged by the fact they've lost two straight, returning home against offensively inept Air Force is the perfect situation for this New Mexico team.
Bottom line, look for the Lobos to blow Air Force right out of their gym in this one. Superior offense, coupled with the Falcons inability to score on the road, equals a lopsided home win and cover for the Lobos in this one!
Take New Mexico BIG over Air Force in this MWC match up.
4. Bucks- I gave you the Warriors over the Bulls yesterday as my Free Play release, but tonight, I've elevated the Bucks to my paid play simply because I believe Golden State will run out of gas in this one.
Playing their 4th road game in 5 nights, even a team used to running-and-gunning all game long cannot hold back fatigue. In fact, one could argue that the Warriors cover up their defensive deficiencies with a superior offense... So what happens when the offense is tired? You get what will happen tonight, a tired Warriors team trudging up and down the floor against a rested Milwaukee team that's a solid 11-5 (8-8 ATS) at home this season.
Match ups may also be an issue, as Bogut has shown improvement, coming off a 21 point 10 rebound effort in the Bucks 87-80 win over the Hawks Wednesday. In fact, over his last 3 games he's averaging 23 ppg and 10.5 rebounds per game! While normally you'd take the more balaned Baron Davis over Michael Redd, I have serious concerns about Davis' energy in this one. He's coming off an exhausting 45 minute 40 point night in Chicago yesterday... I don't care who you are, he going to be noticaeably slower in this one (as goes Davis, goes this Warriors offense).
Finally, the one place the Bucks do play some real defense is at home, where they allow 95 ppg, which is down 5 points from their season average. After a tough home loss to Washington, the Bucks have beaten the struggling Heat, and a solid Hawks team with strong defensive efforts, and I expect another solid effort here tonight. In the end, Golden State is a team built on offense, and if they can't execute because of tired legs, then they can't win, plain and simple. Bucks roll!
Take the Bucks over the Warriors in this NBA match up.
