POINTWISE ( 3-8 )
MEINEKE BOWL
WAKE FOREST (8-4) vs CONNECTICUT (9-3)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29
1:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Wk Forest ... 41.0 .. 28-23 .. 19-19 .. 136- 97 ... 174-220.. +11 . Wk Forest
UConn ........ 41.1 .. 28-19 .. 20-18 .. 165-159 .. 193-188.. + 8 . by 8.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
This contest marks just the first time in school history, that the Deacons of
Wake Forest have participated in the bowl picture in back-to-back seasons,
with just the '46 Gator, '49 Dixie, & '79 Tangerine gracing their resume, before
2 bowls in the '90s, & this, their 3rd since '02. Grobe has done a masterful job
the past couple of seasons, with Wake a combined 19-7, since the onset of
'06. A year ago, they made it to the Orange Bowl, after a 9-6 win over Ga Tech
in the ACC title game, & proceeded to hold mighty Louisville to just 24 pts (16
below the Cards' average), before losing 24-13 (1-pt ATS loss). QB Skinner
has thrown for 1,936 yds, with an eye-popping 72% completion rate. But he
has thrown for just 11 TDs, along with 12 INTs. Frosh RB Adams has been a
pleasant surprise (887 yds & 10 TDs), with WR Moore at 899 yds & 5 TDs.
And that rush "D" ranks 17th in the nation, holding all but 2 foes under 116
RYs. Oh, by the way, rumors of Grobe heading to Arkansas have proven just
that - rumors. He is staying. And so, apparently, is coach Randy Edsall of the
Connecticut Huskies, who was rumored to be heading for Georgia Tech. UConn
has risen quickly, under his tutelage, with this its 2nd bowl in 4 years, the first
a 39-10 rout of Toledo, as a 3? pt dog, in the '04 Motor City. QB Lorenzen is
their trigger (2,269 yds, 13 TDs, 5 picks), but RBs Dixon & Brown combined
for 1,558 yds & 11 TDs. The Huskies ranked 2nd in the nation in scoring "D",
before being pulverized, 66-21, in their finale vs WVa, so take note of a non
conference schedule vs the likes of Duke, Maine, Temple, & Akron. In an
oddity, both lost to Virginia by the same score, 17-16. Home field decides this.
PROPHECY: WAKE FOREST 26 - Connecticut 19 RATING: 1
WAKE FOREST 26 - Connecticut 19 RATING: 1
CENTRAL FLORIDA (10-3) vs MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Central Fla . 37.0 .. 38-28 .. 22-20 .. 243-131 .. 174-248.. + 4 . Central Fla
Miss St ....... 46.1 .. 22-25 .. 17-18 .. 135-159 .. 170-182.. - 3 . by 8.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
Talk about coaches turning their teams around. After Jackie Sherrill led the
Bulldog of Mississippi State to consecutive bowl games in '98, '99, & '00, the
latter a 43-41 heartstopping (OT) win over Texas A&M in the Independence
Bowl, hard times hit Starkville, with consecutive 3-8, 3-9, & 2-10 campaigns.
Enter Sylvester Croom, the first black head coach in SEC history. Things
didn't go exactly swimmingly, with 3-win seasons in '04-'06, then opening this
campaign with a 45-0 loss to LSU, along with a 200-yd deficit. But it was the
turnover (7) which strangled them in that one, & improvement was obvious, as
they won their next 3, including a shocking upset of Auburn. As a matter of
fact, they have a pair of upsets, as 2-TD dogs, the other over Kentucky (19?
& 31 pt covers). But it must be noted that MSt had a 9 TO edge in those wins.
Croom: SEC Coach of the Year. Offensively, the 'Dogs are nothing special,
ranking 78th overland, with QBs Carroll a combined 10 TDs & 15 INTs. But
their 28th ranked "D" has to be respected. But it will have to put the clamps on
the nation's leading runner, UCF's splendid Kevin Smith, who finished the year
with 2,448 yds & 30 TDs, joining the peerless Barry Sanders, as the only RBs
in history with more than 2,000 RYs, & 30 TDs in a season. Try 284 RYs in
Central's 44-25 rout of Tulsa in the C-USA title game. For the Knights, this
marks their 2nd bowl trip in the 4 years of O'Leary's reign, the other being a
49-48 OT loss to Nevada in the '05 Hawaii Bowl. QB Israel (60%, 2,085 yds,
15 TDs & 8 picks) is the other part of UCF's balanced attack. No questioning
Bulldog improvement, but Knights are bowl experienced, & prevail in tight one.
PROPHECY: CENTRAL FLORIDA 31 - Mississippi State 24 RATING: 6
PENN STATE (8-4) vs TEXAS A&M (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Penn St ....... 41.2 .. 31-18 .. 20-16 .. 187- 88 ... 212-219 .. + 1 . Penn St
Tex A&M ..... 46.0 .. 29-26 .. 21-19 .. 216-152 .. 187-264 .. + 8 . by 1.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
Of course, the top sidebar to this game, is the fact that it marks Joe Paterno's
500th game as head man with the Nittany Lions of Penn State. That's right, all
41 years at the same school, with no less than 33 bowl campaigns. Oh, he
has 371 wins, second only to Bobby Bowden's 373. Quite an historic competition.
This year's edition has been noted for its home dominance, where the
Nits held a 226-67 pt edge over all foes, except Ohio St, against whom the
Lions were overmatched. At season's end Penn St ranked 9th best in the land
in total defense, & 6th best against the run. Check bowl-bound Michigan,
Wisconsin, Indiana, & Purdue all being held to 3.0 ypr or less. Offensively, the
Nits are led by RB Kinlaw (1,186 yds, 10 TDs), with QB Morelli a steady 59%
for 2,508 yds (18/9). Even in their loss to Ohio St, the Lions managed 6.0 ypr.
But, as noted above, State wasn't the same squad away from home, failing to
cover all 4 Big Ten RGs, losing 3. The Aggies of Texas A&M made it to the '04
Cotton & '06 Holiday Bowls, under Dennis Franchione, but were mauled 38-7
& 45-10 by Tennessee & California, respectively. He has departed, following,
not only a disappointing season, but also due to some highly questionable offfield
doings. He is replaced by Gary Darnell (defensive coordinator) for this
game, & he has his work cut out. The Ags have had their sporadic moments,
of course, including an upset of arch-rival Texas in the season's finale, but 9
returning starters, including QB McGee, & RB Lane from LY's 18th best "O"
boded far better than this year's 53rd rated unit. The dog has covered the last
3 bowls involving Penn St, & this is a home game for the Ags. Weak dog call.
PROPHECY: Penn State 24 - TEXAS A&M 23 RATING: 6