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BETTING PROPHETS PLAYS
NFL
Football
San Diego Chargers/New England Patriots 1/20/2008 3:00:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points OVER 47 -110 for Game
NFL
Football
New York Giants 1/20/2008 6:30:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +8 -115 for Game
NCAA
Basketball
Marquette 1/20/2008 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +3 -110 for Game
NHL
Hockey
Columbus Blue Jackets 1/20/2008 8:05:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line +130 for Game
REPORT# 2 8:57 am
THE SPORTS MEMO
San Diego at New England -14 O/U 49
Recommendation: New England
We used the over in the Patriots game last week in this same price
range, but we?ll adjust to some injury information and some good
old visual evidence from last week?s performances to determine
a new plan of attack this week. Jacksonville had been on a monumental
run going over the total in 11 straight prior to their trip to
Foxboro and their performance against Pittsburgh told us that
trend was likely to continue against the League?s most diverse
offensive attack. Typically these Chargers have the weaponry we
would equate with an over team as well, but if you watched the
game last week you saw Tomlinson and Rivers injure their knees
and you saw a hobbled Antonio Gates become a non-factor. You
also saw the Colts take over early in the game as Peyton Manning
picked apart the secondary. That doesn?t bode well against Tom
Brady who is as patient in the pocket as any QB that has started
in the NFL. Brady doesn?t force anything, taking only what is
available; take away Moss and Welker kills you. Take away Welker
and Ben Watson goes for 25 down the middle. Watson is covered?
Throw to Gaffney. The Chargers were able to take advantage of
three turnovers from the Colts as Indy drove the field. Each turnover
stopped what looked like sure scoring drives. But the Pats
don?t turn the ball over, period. Both LT and Rivers are questionable
as of now but we?ll call for them to gut it out come game
time. If they can?t go the onus falls on Michael Turner and Darren
Sproles in the backfield and Billy Volek under center. Either scenario
is fine for us. We expect the combination of stout defense
from the Pats (who have given up less than 14 points per game at
home this season) and a conservative clock management style offense
(to protect and relieve pressure from their injured offensive
stars or backups) from the Chargers. While the Pats have fallen
off course by covering just once in their last seven games, and the
Chargers have produced the single best run ATS in the NFL down
the stretch (9-1 including eight straight) this week sets up nicely
for a blowout as Belichick?s crew head to another Super Bowl.
New York at Green Bay -7 O/U 42
Recommendation: Green Bay
The Giants continued their improbable run on the highway cashing
another ticket and taking the outright win in Big D. But if you
watched the game you probably came away less than impressed
by the G-Men, and a quick glance at the box score would justify
your feelings. New York was completely dominated from a numbers
standpoint: They were out gained by over 100 yards (including a 64
yard deficit on the ground), lost the time of possession battle by 13
minutes, gave up more sacks and allowed the Cowboys to covert on
10-16 on third down. It wasn?t exactly the performance of a lifetime
and certainly those numbers wouldn?t get the job done against the
Packers. Green Bay spotted the Seahawks a 14 point lead after two
quick Ryan Grant turnovers. But Grant fully redeemed himself by
going over 200 yards while scoring three TDs and the Packers,
who scored a TD on six straight possessions, ran away from Seattle
(quite literally). The same fundamental and situational matchups
that made the Packers an appealing bet last week make them an
appealing bet again this week. Their rushing attack is absolutely
looking like one of the best in football right now as Ryan Grant
continues to punish defenses behind an excellent zone blocking offensive
line. Grant pushed his streak of 100 yard efforts to six in
his last 11 outings while scoring at least one TD in each of his last
seven games. The Giants? numbers tell a story of being able to defend
the run; they do after all rank in the top ten in that category.
But we saw Marion Barber run all over them before Dallas decided
to give up on the run, something the Packers don?t seem likely to
do. The Giants and their backers will point to the pressure they
put on Tony Romo, and the fact that they are one of the best pass
rushing teams in the NFL as being a big plus for them this week.
But Green Bay utilizes the three step drop quick-to-intermediate
passing game really neutralizing much pass rush, and their WRs
are amongst the best in producing yards after the catch. Lambeau
has been magical this season (7-1-1 ATS) once again and they?ll be
rocking this week as their beloved Pack head to the Super Bowl.
Strike Point Sports Picks For Football (NFL and NCAA)
NFL Conference Championship Picks
2-Unit Play. #303 Take San Diego +14 over New England (3 pm)
The Pats have failed to cover their last four games, while San Diego is 7-0 ATS in its last seven following a SU win. I think that despite New England's dominance all season, this game will be competitive, mainly because of the pressure the Bolts will apply to Tom Brady. The Chargers are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, and in the most important game of the season, they will come to play.
3-Unit Play. Take San Diego/New England Over 47 (3 pm)
There are just too many playmakers in this game for theese two teams not to shoot over the posted total. Tom Brady alone could play a big factor with the air attack, but with San Diego's turnover forcing defense and a special teams unit that is one of the best in the league, we'll see both teams account for 50+. I can definitely see the winner of this game at or above 30 points, and considering we see this being a single digit outcome, the loser will be over 20. Play the over here.
2-Unit Play. #305 Take New York +7 over Green Bay (6:30 pm)
Cold weather, yes, and Brett Favre, but if Mike Vick and Atlanta can knock of Green Bay, then so can the red hot road Giants. New York has been outstanding away from Giant Stadium this season, as well as having covered their last four games in the playoffs as an underdog. The Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven at Lambeau vs. winning road teams, and I think the points will be good here, as New York has a great shot to take this one outright.
1-Unit Play. #305 Take New York +260 over Green Bay (6:30 pm)
See above, but there is a lot of value on the Giants here. They enter the NFC championship playing arguably the best football of anyone over the last five or six games. The defense is comes in off a great outing limiting the NFC's top offense in Dallas, and I think they again show up strong against Green Bay. The offense is clicking with a solid balance of run and pass. Play New York small on the moneyline to win outright.
2-Unit Play. Take New York/Green Bay Over 40.5 (6:30 pm)
This one, just like the AFC tilt, will go over its number. I see both teams here hitting for at least 20, while the weather can certainly play a role with favorable field position with turnovers and short punts. I see at least three mistakes via the cold, possible snowy weather. Two quarterbacks in Brett Favre and Eli Manning have shown in recent games they have been real successful down the field. They'll both cash in offensively and be a big reason for this game topping the total in this game.
Burns NFL Playoff TOY
Purchased Premium Picks
Sun, 01/20/08 - 6:30 PM Ben Burns | NFL Total
triple-dime bet306 GBP / 305 NYG Under 40.5 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on the Packers and Giants to finish UNDER the number. Its true that Green Bay saw last week's game here vs. Seattle finish above the total. However, that was due in large part to a couple of turnovers leading to easy touchdowns and the game taking on a different "feel" as a result. Conversely, the Giants have seen both of their playoff games finish below the total. Having outplayed Brad Johhsnon and Tony Romo and having avoided costly mistakes, Eli Manning continues to get the majority of his team's accolades. Its been the Giants' defense which has quietly carried the load though. After giving up an early touchdown in their opener against Tampa, the Giants' defense stiffened and blanked the Bucs through the second and third quarters, eventually surrendering only 14 points. It was more of the same against the Cowboys last week. After surrendering 14 points in the first half, the Giants' defense "dug deep" and held the high-scoring Cowboys to a mere three points in the second half, including none in the second half. That's pretty impressive considering that the Cowboys scored more points than any other team in the NFC this season, second only to the Patriots in the entire league. That low-scoring result marked fourth time in their past seven games that the Giants had held an opponent to 17 points or less. Only one of those seven opponents scored more than 22 points, and that was the Patriots in a "meaningless" game. Five of the seven games produced 38 combined points or less. As is the case in New York, the quarterback gets the bulk of the attention in Green Bay. While Favre has certainly had an impressive season, its the defense, which ranks second in the NFC in terms of points allowed, which has quietly gotten the job done. Indeed, the Packers are allowing only 18.2 points per game. The Giants last visited Lambeau in 2004, scoring a 14-7 upset. Their previous visit here was way back in 1995 when they combined with the Packers for just 20 points. On what is expected to be an extremely cold Sunday, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair. *Playoff TOY
pers fave
patriots
playoff TOY
under NYG/GB
Advance Analysis
3* S.D.
Steve Budin
100*PACKERS
Dr. Bob
3-Stars on Green Bay at -7 at -120 odds or less, 2-Stars from -7 (-125 or more) to -9 points.
3 Star Selection
GREEN BAY (-7.0) 30 NY Giants 14
03:30 PM Pacific, 20-Jan-08
New York has played well in winning playoff games at Tampa Bay and at Dallas, but committing zero turnovers in those two wins has certainly helped the Giants' cause. New York is still averaging 1.9 turnovers per game, so don't expect the Giants to continue to play mistake free football, especially given Eli Manning's interception history (20 interceptions this season and 55 the last 3 years). New York's offense is just 0.1 yards per play better than average this season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and they've averaged more than 5.4 yppl only twice in their last 12 games (and neither playoff game). Green Bay's defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average, so neither team has an advantage when the Giants have the ball.
New York's defense has played very well in recent weeks, and for most of the season after a bad start, and I rate the Giants' stop unit at 0.7 yppl better than average after excluding their horrible game 1 effort against Dallas (8.8 yppl allowed). Green Bay's offense, however, is considerably better than that. The Packers are 1.0 yppl better than average offensively for the season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but that unit went to another level when Ryan Grant emerged at running back. Grant barely played in Green Bay's first 6 games, but injuries forced Grant into the lineup in week 8 and a superstar has emerged. Grant has gained 1130 rushing yards in 11 games since becoming the featured back and he's averaged a very impressive 5.4 ypr in those games. Grant overcame two early fumbles last week, which staked Seattle to a 14-0 lead, to rush for 201 yards on just 27 rushes and the Packers' offense rates at 1.3 yppl better than average with Grant at running back (and also adjusting Favre's passing numbers for games in which big play WR Greg Jennings played - he missed 3 games). New York's pass rush is a big part of what makes them a good defense (they average 3.1 sacks) but Brett Favre is very good at getting rid of the ball on time, and avoiding sacks when he needs more time, and he was sacked just 16 times in 17 games and only once in week 2 against the Giants. Favre averaged 7.3 yards per pass play despite not having big play receiver Greg Jennings available and he should have another good game today against a questionable and banged up Giants' secondary. Green Bay racked up 370 yards at 5.6 yppl and scored 35 points in a victory at New York against the Giants in week 2 without Grant (GB ran for just 85 yards at 3.1 ypr in that game) and my math model projects 5.9 yppl for the Packers in this game. That number could be higher if cornerback Sam Madison misses another game and if CB Aaron Ross re-injures his dislocated shoulder, but I made no adjustments for New York's ailing secondary.
My math model favors Green Bay by 7 points with a total of 44 points, which is where the line on this game opened. While there is no line value, there is reason to play the Packers here. It is awfully tough for teams to play 3 consecutive road games and even tougher to play well in 3 straight road games. Road teams are only 42.6% ATS if they were also on the road in their previous two games (since 1980) and that record drops to just 34-64-1 ATS if the team is coming off a win in their last game, including 30-62-1 ATS when not getting at least 10 points (8-22-1 ATS in playoff games). Green Bay applies to a 17-2 ATS Championship Game situation that is 15-1 ATS for teams not favored by more than 10 points. Home teams have won by 10 points or more exactly 50% of the 74 Conference Championship games over the years, while the median pointspread has the home team favored by only 4 1/2 points. Championship games are often blowouts and even big favorites tend to cover the spread if they win the game, so laying the points is not as much of a risk in Championship games. In fact, the team that wins straight up in a conference Championship game is an incredible 64-0-2 ATS when not favored by more than 10 points, including 11-0 ATS for teams favored from 7 1/2 to 10 points. Now there is no guarantee that the Packers are going to win this game, but it sure is the most likely outcome and it is also very likely that they will cover the spread if they do win the game. The fair line on this game is Green Bay by 7 points, but giving up a couple of points of line value if necessary isn't as much of a risk in a Conference Championship game, especially since 8 and 9 are such rare numbers to land on. I'll take Green Bay in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (at -120 odds or less) and for 2-Stars from -7 (-125 or more) to -9 points.
My math model predicts 44 points in this game, which is also where the total opened, and the cold weather certainly didn't negatively affect the scoring in last week's game in Green Bay. So, I also lean with the Over in this game given the line value.
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) 30 San Diego 16
12:00 PM Pacific, 20-Jan-08
San Diego is a different team now than they were when they visited Foxboro in September and came away with a 14-38 loss, but the odds are against them to stay close in this game. San Diego was transformed defensively starting with their week game against Indianapolis, when All-Pro Antonio Cromartie joined the starting lineup. Cromartie had a great season and the Chargers pass defense went from average to very good with Cromartie playing full time. San Diego's run defense also go stronger and the Chargers have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in 10 games with Cromartie in the starting lineup, against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Peyton Manning had a good game last week and the Colts racked up 446 total yards at 6.8 yppl, but Manning also suffered two interceptions on deflected passes. New England's offense is among the best in history, averaging 36.5 points per game at 6.4 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack) and Tom Brady was nearly perfect last week in slicing up Jacksonville's defense. San Diego certainly will provide a stiffer test than the Jaguars did last week but Brady has a history of playing error free football in the post-season, so the Chargers are not likely to match their average of 2.9 forced turnovers per game.
San Diego's offense is the big question mark in this game, as their top 3 players - QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and TE Antonio Gates - are all injured. Rivers hasn't practiced all week (through Thursday) but says he expects to play on his injured knee. Tomlinson sat out the second half of last week's win against the Colts but is listed as probable and Gates played at noticeably less than 100% last week with his sprained toe and will probably be about the same this week. The good news for Chargers' fans is that there isn't much drop off from Rivers to capable backup Billy Volek and backup running backs Michael Turner and Darrin Sproles are also more than capable replacements for Tomlinson if he can't play. Rivers was as good as I've ever seen him last week, completing 14 of 19 passes for 264 yards, but San Diego's offense is still just 0.2 yppl better than average for the season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), so it's unlikely that Rivers' great play in the post-season will continue. The Patriots are only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team), so the Chargers should still move the ball at a decent rate.
Overall, my math model favors New England by only 10 1/2 points but the Patriots apply to a 46-17 ATS playoff situation and a 17-2 ATS playoff situation. Favorites of more than 10 points are only 3-6 ATS in Conference Championship game history, but both the situations favoring the Pats are 2-1 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 10 points in championship games. New England is also 38-17-3 ATS with Tom Brady at quarterback in home games when not favored by 20 points or more, including 4-2-1 ATS in the playoffs (although that trend failed last week). This is a tough game to call with the line value favoring San Diego and the situational analysis favoring New England, so I suggest passing on this game - although I'd lean very slightly with the Pats at -13 1/2 or less if I were forced to make a play (but, you're not forced to make a play).
NFL Math Model Predictions
Percent chance of covering based only on math only and does not include any situational analysis.
Listed alphabetically by home team
Team Rushing Passing Total Pts Line Chance
NY Giants 26.6-118, 4.43 33.7-193, 5.74 60.3-311, 5.16 18.5 +7.5 0.504
Green Bay 25.7-118, 4.58 35.6-246, 6.90 61.2-363, 5.93 25.7 -7.5 0.496
San Diego 26.0-110, 4.23 32.2-189, 5.87 58.2-299, 5.14 16.7 +13.5 0.537
New England 27.6-108, 3.90 36.7-274, 7.46 64.4-381, 5.93 27.1 -13.5 0.463
Key to Math System Predictions:
Rushing = Run Plays - Rushing Yards, Yards Per Rush (ypr)
Passing = Pass Plays - Passing Yards, Yards Per Pass Play (ypp, includes sacks)
Total = Total Plays - Total Yards, Yards Per Play
Pts = Predicted Points Scored
Line = Point Spread
% = Chance to Cover Spread
Teddy Covers
green bay
WINNING POINTS
Akron* over Bowling Green by 22
BeeGees? must attempt to pound out their hits in the first-season system of Louis Orr
without 6-5 senior guard Ryne Hamblet, whose absence has been flying under the
radar during the light-schedule transition from non-conference to MAC season. The
30% shooting performance on home floor against Ohio was probably an early signal
of things to come, a problem not readily apparent due to the ?W? in that game. Playing
on the road with a 6-4, 240 leading scorer against Akron?s 6-6, 240 Jeremiah Wood is
a loss in that match-up, to go along with other losses in match-ups against Akron?s senior
guards and more mature systems. AKRON, 71-49.
James Patrick Sports
College Hoop Action
Penn State vs. Indiana 2:00 p.m. est.
Without Gerry Claxton you can just about put a fork in the Nittany Lions for this promising season. The heart & soul of Penn State went down with a knee injury for the season and the scoring, defense and rebounding absence will be greatly missed. The Hoosiers take no prisoners at Assembly Hall and today they have a victim that is prime for the taking.
3* #808 Indiana Hoosiers
Oregon vs.Washington State 8:00 p.m. est.
The Ducks have dropped four of six on the road of late and the Cougars are ready for battle as Oregon swept Washington State last season. Beasley Coliseum and the main ingredients back from a 26 win season a year ago put us on Wassou in this game.
3* #822 Washington State Cougars
NFL Playoff Game of the Year is Golden
Chargers vs. Patriots 3:00 p.m. est. (AFC Championship Game)
A lot of things have changed since the Patriots beat San Diego in week two of the regular season. San Diego has been hit with some crucial injuries to their key offensive players and that isn't a very promising outlook heading into Foxboro to play the undefeated Patriots for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. QB Phillip Rivers, RB LaDanian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates, the top offensive weapons for Norv Turner's team, are all ailing. It's going to take more than the Chargers will offer to take out New England at home in Foxboro. Did you know that teams that beat the defending Super Bowl Champions are just 2-8 ATS ? Last week San Diego 28 Indianapolis 24. Considering the fact that New England never punted until the final half minute against a sound Jacksonville Jaguar team last weekend and Brady was 26 for 28 passing, We expect the Patriots to blow away the huge point spread here and make a statement heading into the Super Bowl as an Undefeated AFC Champion.
5* Pot of Gold #304 New England Patriots
Brandon Lang
SUNDAY
40 Dime - PACKERS (Do not get beat by the hook in this game. If your bookmaker has a 7-1/2 posted on this game, I am telling you must purchase the 1/2-point off this number and lay only -7 points. )
10 Dime - OVER Packers/Giants
5 Dime - OREGON
WINNING POINTS
*New England over San Diego by 17
It?s not like the Chargers don?t possess talent or can?t beat any team.They
can. Just ask the Colts. San Diego just can?t compete at New England with
its three best offensive players banged-up. When Antonio Gates is the
healthiest of the trio with a dislocated toe, you know the Chargers have
problems. LaDainian Tomlinson (check status) has a bruised knee.
Quarterback Philip Rivers also has a bad knee. Michael Turner is an outstanding
backup runner. But he?s far from being the NFL?s rushing leader
like Tomlinson. Billy Volek is a serviceable backup quarterback. However,
this isn?t some JV squad the Chargers are facing in the AFC championship
game.The Patriots may be the best team ever.They finished the regular-season
setting records for points, touchdowns and victories.They are going for
their fourth Super Bowl championship in seven years.Tom Brady is 13-2 in
the postseason.This is his finest season, maybe the best ever for a quarterback.
The Patriots beat a much-stronger and healthier San Diego club on the
road last season in the playoffs, 24-21.They rang up 24 first downs and 403
yards Saturday in a 31-20 victory against Jacksonville, scoring on five of
eight possessions. Randy Moss only had one catch for 14 yards, still Brady
completed 26-of-28 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns. The
Chargers have some momentum, winning eight in a row and 12 of their
past 14. They are a different team than the one that got buried 38-14 as
three-point road underdogs to New England. Brady torched the Chargers
for 279 yards and three scores, including two touchdown throws to Moss.
New England?s fourth-ranked defense held Tomlinson to 43 yards on 18 carries.
Still, the Chargers exerted a lot of physical and mental energy in upsetting
the Colts.The Chargers?winning streak came against weak opponents.
Tennessee was the only playoff team they met in dispatching their final
seven regular-season foes and the Titans just snuck into the postseason
when the Colts played their reserves against them in Week 17.The Chargers
trailed the Titans in the second half in both of their victories.New England?s
defense gets overshadowed by its record-setting offense. Yet the Patriots
only allowed 17.1 points per game.There?s no better defensive mind than
Bill Belichick. His challenge is easier with San Diego?s key skilled players
hurting. Leadership could factor. Norv Turner is nowhere near Belichick?s
stature as a head coach.The Chargers are a Southern California team going
into cold and potentially bad weather.Rivers is a highly accurate passer. His
maturity has come into question, though, with his taunting of opponents
and sideline arguments with teammates. Maintaining composure is important
for the Chargers, yet they are one of the youngest teams with 12 rookies.
Nearly a third of the team has been in the league three years or less. Just
five San Diego starters are 30 or older.The Packers are the youngest team,
but they have a veteran leader, Brett Favre, who has been to two Super
Bowls and through many playoff wars.The Chargers have an opportunistic
defense.They led the NFL in takeaways with 48 and turnover margin at plus
24. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips are feared pass rushers. Playing in
what could be sloppy conditions hurts their edge speed. Brady had an
unbelievable 50-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio. It?s asking a lot
for the Chargers to come up with takeaways.The best thing they have going
is the line probably is going to be inflated.The Patriots have only covered
one of their last seven games.We don?t see Brady committing turnovers.The
Patriots have everything going and now they?ve caught a huge break with
San Diego?s injuries. NEW ENGLAND 31-14.
*Green Bay over New York Giants by 14
At some point the courageous but banged-up Giants are going to run out of
gas.That time is going to come at Lambeau Field on Sunday.The Packers are
the healthier team,which is a huge key at this point, have home-field advantage,
the better quarterback and are playing their best ball.They even get an
extra day of rest. If you discount six bad quarters versus the Bears and an
ill-fated trip to Dallas in November, no team other than New England has
played better than Green Bay.The Giants aren?t in the Packers? class, especially
without star tight end Jeremy Shockey, several linebackers and multiple
injuries in their secondary. The Packers have the deepest set of wide
receivers in the NFC headed by Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The
Giants led the NFL in sacks. But Favre, with his quick release and veteran
savvy, will spread the field, get the ball off quickly and take advantage of
numerous mismatches. The Giants lost another defensive back against
Dallas when cornerback Aaron Ross suffered a shoulder injury. If Ross
(check status) is out, New York will be down to three healthy cornerbacks
?undrafted rookie Geoff Pope, journeyman R.W. McQuarters and Corey
Webster. The Packers played their finest game of the season Saturday in
beating Seattle at home, 42-20. The Packers? game plan was to nullify
Seattle?s quick pass rushers by throwing quick, short passes. Favre has been
at his best when that has been the team game plan. Ryan Grant rushed for
a Green Bay playoff record 201 yards, averaging 7.4 yards per carry on 27
attempts.The Giants won?t be able to key on Favre because of the Packers?
balanced attack.Green Bay is physical, tough and smart on both sides of the
ball.The Packers? special teams are solid, too.The Giants have shown outstanding
resiliency winning their last nine road contests.This will be their
third away game in three weeks, however. The Packers, by contrast, last
played away from home on Dec. 23. The Giants have gotten this far by
defeating an offensively-challenged bunch of retreads named the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers and survived a challenge at Texas Stadium when the Cowboys
continued their flat performance from the end of the regular season.The
much maligned Eli Manning still is playing while his Cowboys counterpart,
Tony Romo, probably is lying on a beach somewhere with Jessica Simpson.
Eli?s brother, Peyton, is probably off filming another commercial. It is amazing
Eli is the one still standing. He?s actually put together three straight 100-
rating passing games. Look for the Packers to draw the bad Eli rather than
the good Eli. Manning hasn?t proven he can be effective in cold and possible
bad weather.The Packers held opposing quarterbacks to a 75.6 passer
rating, while playing an extremely physical man-to-man coverage with their
two star cornerbacks, Charles Woodson and Al Harris. The Packers? weak
link is their safeties, Atari Bigby and Nick Collins. Both of them have
stepped up lately, though, especially Bigby. Only the Steelers could match
the Packers giving up just six touchdowns on the ground. So don?t look for
Brandon Jacobs or third-string runner Ahmad Bradshaw being much of a
help to Manning on the ground.The Packers had no problem handling the
Giants on the road in Week 2 winning, 35-13. Favre threw three touchdowns
and had 286 yards passing.This was without a running game since
Grant, who the Packers got from the Giants, wasn?t Green Bay?s featured
back then. Rookie DeShawn Wynn was Green Bay?s leading rusher that day.
The Giants are encountering a team much, much superior to the
Buccaneers and one that is playing at a particularly high level and in much
better form than Dallas. GREEN BAY 30-16.
POINTWISE
PROPHECY: NEW ENGLAND 38 - San Diego 20 RATING: 5
PROPHECY: GREEN BAY 27 - New York Giants 16 RATING: 6
