BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBAL
ILLINOIS STATE
Game: Drake vs. Illinois State Game Time: 2/5/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Illinois State Reason: I'm laying the points with ILLINOIS STATE. Drake comes in with the better record and the higher national ranking. However, there is a reason that the Redbirds are the favored team. Indeed, Illinois State is a perfect 11-0 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.6 points, and has beaten Drake four straight times at Redbird Arena. The Duke enjoys little boys. He is half a fag. The Redbirds, who had lost three of four, got back on track last time out, earning an important 1-point win at Missouri State. Returning to their home floor, I expect the Redbirds to carry positive momentum from that victory into tonight's critical clash. Catching the Bulldogs for the league title is going to be difficult. However, if they want any shot of doing so, they absolutely need tonight's game. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, can easily handle a loss. Drake has been a great story. Having now reached their highest ranking since 1970, I expect the Bulldogs to be patting themselves on the back a bit here though. Keep in mind that Drake was picked to finish ninth in the MVC's 10-team preseason poll after losing four senior starters. Additionally, note that the Bulldogs haven't finished with a winning record in the league since the 1985-86 season. Obviously, that's going to change this year. My point is that this team isn't used to being in this position though. The Redbirds, who won by 15 against the Bulldogs here last season, are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four times they were attempting to avenge a road loss. Look for them to deliver an inspired effort tonight, keeping their perfect home record in tact and covering the small number along the way. *Missouri Valley Conference GOY
SOUTHERN MISS
Game: UAB vs. Southern Miss Game Time: 2/5/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Southern Miss Reason: I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. The Golden Eagles have had some trouble on the road. However, they've been very tough at home, going 8-2 while outscoring opponents by a 77.7 to 59.3 margin. In fact, their last three games on this floor have all resulted in double-digit blowout victories with scores of 71-54, 71-53 and most recently a 92-69 thumping of East Carolina. While the Blazers represent a significant step up in class from the Pirates, I expect the Golden Eagles to bring both confidence and momentum into tonight's big game. The Golden Eagles will also have the added motivation of playing with "revenge" from a seven point loss at UAB in mid-January. Note that they're 12-5 ATS the past few seasons when attempting to avenge a road loss, going 12-4 ATS during that stretch when coming off a win over a conference opponent. The Blazers did manage a win at UCF in their most recent road game. However, they'd lost three of their previous four true road games, with the lone victory coming by a single point. Note that UAB is just 2-6 ATS the past eight times it was listed as a road underdog (or pick'em) of three points or less. Additionally, note that the Golden Eagles are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times they were listed as a home favorite (or pick'em) of three points or less. Overall, they're a highly profitable 18-7-1 ATS their last 26 lined home games. Trailing 30-18 at halftime in the loss at UAB, the Golden Eagles scored 47 points shot 61 percent from the field in the second half. Look for them to get off to a much better start in tonight's rematch, continuing their strong play on this court and improving to 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they faced a team which allows 64 points or less after 15 or more games of the season. *Conference USA GOW
HOCKEY
COLUMBUS
Game: Washington Capitals vs. Columbus Blue Jackets Game Time: 2/5/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets Reason: I'm laying the price with COLUMBUS. Home ice is a significant advantage for both these teams. The Blue Jackets are a poor 9-15-2 on the road but a respectable 16-8-4 at home. That includes a 5-2 mark when playing a home game with an over/under line of 5.5. Likewise, the Capitals have a winning record at home but have just 10 wins in their 26 road games. That includes a 4-6 mark when playing an away game with an over/under line of 5.5. The Capitals come off a 2-0 loss vs. Atlanta on Saturday, their second shutout loss in their last three games. Note that they're 5-9 when coming off a loss by two or more goals and 1-4 the last five times that they played with two or more day's rest in between games. The Blue Jackets were also shutdown in their last game, losing 4-1 vs. Minnesota. They've done a decent job at bouncing back from that type of loss though as we find them at 10-7 (+3.4) when coming off a game in which they scored three goals or less. While the Jackets are 3-2 in non-conference games, the Caps are 2-3 when facing a team from the West. Look for a highly motivated effort from the Jackets tonight, as they snap their skid and earn a much-needed two points. *Personal Favorite
BEN BURNS
NBA BASKETBALL
NETS
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Jersey Nets Game Time: 2/5/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Nets Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. The betting public has been quick to back the new-look Lakers here and has driven the line up. I feel that has given us excellent value with the home underdog. Yes, as mentioned when we successfully played against them in their last game, the Nets do currently have some "issues." However, when motivated to play, they're also a lot better than their record indicates. I didn't think that they'd be particularly "up" for their road game against the Hawks and Vince Carter's post-game comments supported that: "It was our lack of effort that caused us to lose tonight..." A visit from Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and the Lakers is an entirely different matter though and I expect a significantly improved effort. The Nets upset the Lakers at LA back in late November. It's important to note that the final score of 102-100 marked the eighth straight series meeting which was decided by six points or less. Tonight's over/under line currently sits at 203.5. That's worth mentioning as the Lakers, who are a dismal 41-59 ATS the last 100 times they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, are just 6-12 ATS the last 18 times that they played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. The Nets have played well against high-scoring teams like the Lakers at this time of the season. Looking back at the last couple of years and we find them at 21-8-2 ATS in 31 games during the second half of the season when facing a team which scores 99 or more points per game. Look for the Nets to give their guests all they can handle again tonight, taking the game down to the wire and hanging within the generous and inflated number. *Best Bet
UNDER 76ers/Wizards
Game: Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 2/5/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Washington and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the number. Both teams saw their most recent game stay below the number. The Wizards combined with the high-scoring Lakers for 194 points on Sunday. That final score (101-93 loss) fell below the number by 10 points. In their previous game, the Wizards combined with the Jazz for a mere 183 points, staying well beneath the over/under number of 200.5. Note that Washington has seen the UNDER go 3-1 when coming off three or more losses in a row and 9-1 the last 10 times it was coming off a double-digit defeat in its last game. The 76ers saw last night's game at Atlanta fall below the number with 187 combined points. That brought the UNDER to 4-2 their last six games. Note that the 76ers have seen the UNDER go 14-6 the last 20 times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 190 to 194.5. That includes a very low-scoring contest (85-84 Philly) final when these teams met here back in late November. The previous meeting here was also of the low-scoring variety as Wizards and 76ers combined for only 177 points when they faced each other here last February. Look for tonight's final score to be lower scoring than expected once again with the UNDER improving to 15-6 the last 21 times that the 76ers were listed as underdogs of four points or less. *Blue Chip
