Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report- Friday
CFB: 9-1 L10
FRIDAY 10/03/2008
8:00 PM EDT
1 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
UTAH STATE +29 over BYU
The Cougars are in the AP's top-10 for the first time since the 2001 season, and will now face the Aggies in an in-state rivalry contest on Friday.
BYU is actually one of two Mountain West Conference programs among the Top-25, with Utah at #15 and barely surviving Thursday night?s tussle with Oregon State. The Cougars earned their lofty position in the polls by posting consecutive shutouts over UCLA and most recently, Wyoming. BYU has put together the nation's longest winning streak at 14 games, which isn?t likely to be threatened by Utah State.
The Aggies dropped three in a row to begin 2008, falling to Oregon and Utah before picking up its first win of the season, a 42-17 drubbing against Idaho at home.
There?s little question that BYU has the superior talent on both sides of the ball, but we find asking them to win this game by 30+ points a bit much.
For starters, the Cougars have won their last 2 trips to Logan by a combined 4 points, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs in both games.
As for the extra time off, they are more likely to have their momentum stalled, as they are 0-5 ATS on the road with 7+ days rest and qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 3 on, play AGAINST an undefeated non-Saturday road favorite of 11+ points with 7+ days rest.
Such teams are 0-12 ATS all-time failing to cover the spread by nearly 15 ppg on average! The most recent example was USC?s shocking loss at Oregon State just last week.
As for BYU?s back-to-back defensive clampdowns, it actually qualifies them for another POWER SYSTEM that says:
Play AGAINST a team (not an underdog of more than 11 points) with 9+ days rest off allowing less than 6 points in its last 2 games combined.
Despite the extra time off, these teams went 0-11 ATS since 1982, failing to cover the spread by nearly 13 ppg.
Meanwhile, Utah State should certainly benefit from their blowout victory over Idaho last time out. As yet another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM reveals, following a big confidence-building victory, home underdogs have done very well in recent seasons in highlighted non-Saturday games. Specifically:
Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog off a SU win of 19+ points vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win.
Just since 2006, these teams are 11-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 15 ppg on average. It?s already 3-0 ATS this season with home dogs Vanderbilt, Louisville, and Oregon State and winning outright and each beating the spread by at least 2 TDs.
It?s hard to imagine the Cougars having such a meltdown here, but they are likely to come out a bit flat and allow the Aggies to hang around for a spread cover.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BYU 41 UTAH STATE 17