THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (52-44) at Florida (50-45)
The Marlins look to move closer to first place in the N.L. East when they send red-hot Ricky Nolasco to the mound (10-4, 3.70) as these rivals kick off a weekend series at Dolphin Stadium. Florida capped the first half of the season with an 11-game road trip to Colorado, San Diego and Los Angeles, going 6-5 on the journey, including a 6-2 in the last eight.
Philadelphia went into the All-Star break on a 4-1 run, all at home, and the last time the Phillies went on the road they swept a three-game series from division-rival Atlanta. Tonight, Charlie Manuel is set to go with ageless southpaw Jamie Moyer (8-6, 3.95), who is unbeaten in nine career starts against the Marlins
The Phillies and Marlins have split six meetings this year, with the host taking two of three in each series.
Florida is on a 10-1 run with Nolasco on the hill, including 7-0 in the last seven. In Saturday?s 5-3, 12-inning win at the Dodgers, the right-hander gave up just two runs on five hits in six innings. Nolasco has delivered a quality start in six consecutive outings, posting a 1.95 ERA during this stretch.
Nolasco has won four straight home starts, giving up just four earned runs in 28 innings (1.29 ERA). That includes a 5-4 win over the Phillies on June 10 when Nolasco gave up three runs (all unearned) on four hits in six innings. For his career, Nolasco is 3-2 with a 4.23 ERA in seven games (four starts) against Philadelphia.
Moyer hasn?t been on the mound since July 10, when he dominated the Cardinals in a 4-1 home victory, giving up a run on seven hits in seven innings. Prior to that outing, the Phillies had lost four straight games behind Moyer. The 45-year-old lefty has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts.
Moyer is 4-3 with a 3.13 ERA in nine road starts, and since coming to Philly in 2006, he?s dominated Florida, going 9-0 with a 3.03 ERA. Moyer has faced the Fish twice this year, giving up five runs in seven innings of a 7-5 home win on June 1, then scattering two hits and a walk in eight scoreless innings of a 3-0 road victory 12 days later.
The over is 36-17-1 in the last 54 meetings between these clubs, 48-19-3 in the last 70 clashes at Dolphin Stadium and 6-2 in Moyer?s last eight outings against Florida. In addition, for the Marlins, the over is on streaks of 39-16-6 overall, 66-30-9 against the N.L. East, 28-11-3 on Fridays and 12-4-1 against southpaw starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE:OVER
L.A. Dodgers (46-49) at Arizona (47-48)
First place in the N.L. West is up for grabs at Chase Field in Phoenix, where the Diamondbacks are set to hand the ball to Doug Davis (3-4, 3.80) in the opener of a three-game series. Arizona alternated wins and losses on a six-game road trip to Washington and Philadelphia prior to the All-Star break, and the DBacks are just 19-32 going back to May 20.
Los Angeles, which starts Hiroki Kuroda (5-6, 3.43) in this one, pounded the Marlins 9-1 in its most recent game on Sunday, avoiding a four-game sweep at the hands of Florida. On the bright side, the Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 on the highway.
Arizona is 4-1 against the Dodgers this season, including a three-game sweep at Chase Field from April 7-9. The Diamondbacks have averaged 6.4 runs per game in the five contests.
Davis has given up exactly three runs in four straight starts, but the DBacks are just 1-3 in those contests. Also, the southpaw has recorded a quality start in five of his last six outings, with Arizona splitting those games. In six starts at home this season, Davis is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA, but the DBacks are 19-6 in his last 25 efforts at Chase Field. That includes a 10-5 home win over the Dodgers on April 8, with Davis giving up two runs in six innings as he improved to 4-2 with a 1.33 ERA in six career starts versus Los Angeles.
Kuroda returned from a three-week stint on the disabled list and was brilliant in two games against the Astros and Braves, allowing a combined six hits and one walk in 16 scoreless innings. However, his scoreless streak ended in his last start against the Marlins on Saturday, allowing three runs on seven hits in 6 2/3 innings, getting a no-decision in L.A.?s 5-3 loss.
The right-hander is 2-6 with a 4.29 ERA in nine starts on the road, and in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks on April 9, he gave up four runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings, losing 4-3.
The under is 7-2 in Kuroda?s last nine starts overall, 7-2 in his nine outings on the road, 4-1-1 in Davis? last six overall and 4-2 in Davis? six outings at home in 2008. However, the over is 4-1 in the five series meetings between these teams this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE:ARIZONA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (57-40) at L.A. Angels (57-38)
The Angels send ace John Lackey (6-2, 2.46) to the mound as the top two teams in the American League kick off a three-game series against the Red Sox at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles went into the break with consecutive wins at Oakland on Saturday and Sunday, but the team is just 9-8 in its last 17 games overall and 6-6 in its last 12 at home. On the bright side, Mike Scioscia?s squad is 37-16 in Lackey?s last 53 starts.
Clay Buchholz (2-4, 5.70) is scheduled to get the call for Boston, which closed the first half of the season on a 5-1 run, and the club is 44-20 in its last 64 games following an off day. On the downside, the Red Sox are mired in slumps of 3-8 versus the A.L. West, 2-7 on the road, 2-8 in Buchholz?s last 10 starts overall and 0-6 with Buchholz working on the highway.
These teams haven?t faced each other since late April, when L.A. went to Fenway Park and took two of three from the Sox. However, Boston went 9-4 against the Angels last year, including sweeping a divisional playoff series in October.
After starting the year off with nine straight quality starts, Lackey has gotten roughed up in his last two against the Blue Jays (home) and Rangers (road), giving up 12 runs (11 earned) on 22 hits in 11 2/3 innings. Los Angeles split the two contests and is 8-3 in Lackey?s 11 outings this year, including 3-2 at home where the big right-hander sports a 2.50 ERA.
Buchholz returned from a two-month stint in Triple-A a week ago tonight and suffered a 7-3 home loss to the Orioles, as he allowed four runs on five hits in five innings. Buchholz is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts and he?s 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA in five road starts this season, all Red Sox losses.
Lackey has struggled against Boston in his career, going 1-6 with a 6.27 ERA in 11 career starts, 10 of which the Angels have lost. Meanwhile, Buchholz?s first career big-league start came against Lackey and the Angels at home last Aug. 17, and he gave up four runs (three earned) in six innings of an 8-4 victory.
For the Angels, the under is on streaks of 35-17-3 overall, 9-3 on Fridays, 13-3-1 with Lackey on the hill overall and 5-2-1 when Lackey pitches at home. Conversely, the over is 5-1-1 in Buchholz?s last seven starts overall, 4-1 in his last five on the road and 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE