WINNING POINTS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
****BEST BET
ARIZONA over CALIFORNIA* by 38
We went against California at the top of this page two weeks ago and are back for
a return visit. Last week the Bears forged their first cover of the Sonny Dykes era,
but otherwise it was a typical California performance as the Washington Huskies
had 642 yards. Several days prior to this game, yet another Cal player quit the
team, and while he was only a back-up, his departure further thinned a defense
that has lost a slew of bodies. Only three Cal defenders have started every game, a
discontinuity reflected in the stats. Cal is one of only four teams allowing more
than 500 yards per game. Their defense ranks above only Idaho and New Mexico
State. And today they are pitted against a club with a lot of sock. Twenty games
into his tenure at Arizona, Rich Rodriguez?s teams are averaging 37.5 points per
game. Last week the Wildcats exploded for 670 yards against Colorado. And they
did this without depending heavily on ace RB Ka?Deem Carey, who is likely licking
his chops after Bishop Sankey ran for 241 yards against the Cal defense last
week. Cal?s rough start appears to have shaken the confidence of rookie quarterback
Jared Goff. It doesn?t help that his offensive line keeps changing. Last week,
the OL had two first-time starters including a rookie who surrendered his redshirt
year. The Wildcats aren?t likely to improve Goff ?s disposition. One of Arizona?s
strengths is a secondary with five returning starters. The Wildcats already have ten
interceptions, four of which were returned for touchdowns. ARIZONA 51-13.
***BEST BET
AUBURN over ARKANSAS* by 27
One surmises that Brett Bielema rues leaving Wisconsin. Bobby Petrino?s last two
recruiting classes were weak by SEC standards, as Bielema has discovered to his dismay.
The Razorbacks entered their bye week mired in a 5-game losing streak punctuated
by blowout losses to South Carolina and Alabama, games in which Arkansas
was out-scored 104-7. It?s a fair guess that Bielema short-sheeted his preparation
for this game to concentrate on next year?s recruiting class. Former Auburn coach
Gene Chizik recruited well, leaving his successor Gus Malzahn with a talented,
albeit under-achieving, crew that was bound to be more productive under the
supervision of a better coaching staff. Malzahn seasoned the pot with a few elements
of his own, notably a pair of mirror-image quarterbacks in Nick Marshall
and Jeremy Johnson, and presto the Tigers regained the swagger that was lost when
Cam Newton left town. (Johnson, the morning line favorite to start this game, has
attempted only 39 passes, but six have resulted in touchdowns.) Where Auburn has
improved most dramatically is in the running game. The Tigers 6.4 yards per rushing
attempt, a figure topped by only three other teams. It figures they will run the
ball effectively against an Arkansas defense that recently lost DT Robert Thomas,
who was having the best season of his career. Malzahn and OC Brett Lashley are
Arkansas natives with Fayetteville ties. They will have their troops well-prepared
for their personal homecoming game. AUBURN 41-14.
** PREFERRED
Western Kentucky* over Georgia State* by 30
Georgia State HC Trent Miles inherited a fledgling program and has a long row to
hoe. He hasn?t yet cracked the win column and last week?s match at UL-Monroe
was discouraging. Hamstrung by an injury-thinned offensive line, the Panthers
mustered only 224 yards from scrimmage and failed to score an offensive touchdown.
And now they return home to the Georgia Dome ? a facility far too big for
their needs ? where they have lost 10 straight games. On the season, GSU?s opponents
are averaging 228 rushing ypg and 5.2 yards per carry. WKU should have little
difficulty exploiting this flaw. Antonio Andrews leads the nation in rushing ypg
and is on pace to lead the nation in all-purpose yards for the second straight season.
GSU has a marquee player in Albert Wilson ? a poor man?s Antonio Andrews
? but his supporting cast is relatively callow. Nine true freshmen have started at
least one game. The Hilltoppers were a great road team the last few years and hopefully Bobby Petrino will continue the trend, at least on this occasion.
WESTERN KENTUCKY 40-10.
Indiana* over Minnesota by 20
Minnesota became bowl-eligible last week, an objective considered iffy even after
they went 4-0 to open the season. The Golden Gophers are a solid meat-and-potatoes
team playing hard for longtime Jerry Kill assistant Tracy Claes, but a team
with limitations. Prior to their upset of Nebraska, Minny was out-yarded by four
straight opponents. Unlike Minnesota, Indiana has no trouble stretching the field.
Fifteen of their 39 touchdowns have covered more than 20 yards. Their last outing,
a 63-47 setback at Michigan, was more bittersweet than bitter. The defense
was putrid, but the Hoosiers moved the ball effectively and IU trailed by only two
points midway through the fourth quarter. Indiana?s four losses came against teams
that are collectively 24-6. Indiana is 6-3 ATS at home vs. Big Ten opponents under
Kevin Wilson. In their most recent game that fit this criterion, the Hoosiers toppled
Penn State 44-24. Minnesota?s fans rushed the field in jubilation after last
week?s game. The Gophers may have trouble coming down off Cloud Nine. We
like the Hoosiers. INDIANA 41-21.
South Alabama* over Arkansas State by 14
Bryan Harsin is Arky State?s third coach in as many years. For Hugh Freeze and
Gus Malzahn, the position was a stepping-stone to the SEC. Under their tutelage,
the Red Wolves won 20 of 26 games and covered the spread at a 70 percent clip.
Harsin won?t be as fortunate. His team sits 3-4 after a tepid performance vs. ULLafayette.
QB Adam Kennedy has had his moments, but Kennedy isn?t nearly as
proficient as predecessor Ryan Aplin who completed 68.9 percent of his passes and
scored 16 rushing touchdowns in his last two years in the program and we don?t
rate him as high as his USA counterpart Ross Metheny. These teams met last year
in Jonesboro. USA held the Red Wolves to a season-low 316 yards but came out
on the short end of a 36-29 score. South Alabama covered the spot in four straight
games prior to last week?s misstep at Texas State, a quirky loss for the Jaguars, but
a loss that offers us more line value. We had the Jaguars near the top of this page
two weeks ago and they delivered the goods. We?re back to grab another bite.
SOUTH ALABAMA 28-14.
San Jose State over UNLV* by 15
UNLV ended eight years of futility vs. arch-rival Nevada and moved within one
game of bowl-eligibility, quite a turnaround for a program that hasn?t been bowling
since 2000 and won only six games in Bobby Hauck?s first three seasons. But
we don?t foresee the Rebels getting that elusive sixth win this week. UNLV?s rise
has been fueled by fifth-year senior Caleb Herring who was 1-8 as a starter going
into this season and started the year on the bench. Herring has been a pleasant surprise,
but SJSU owns an elite quarterback in David Fales, a potential first round
draft pick. And Fales has been red hot, throwing for 1231 yards in his last three
starts with 11 TD passes. He has excellent rapport with veteran Chandler Jones
and with fast-rising freshman Tyler Winston who collectively average 20.2 yards
per catch. The last time UNLV faced a top-shelf quarterback, they were easy meat
for Derek Carr. San Jose State won 11 games last year while covering the spot in
every away game, seven in all. The Spartans figure to bring home the bacon.
SAN JOSE STATE 41-26
