Dr Bob
Tuesday, December 21
MICHIGAN STATE (-17) 84 Ucla 61
Michigan State is looking for a little payback after losing in Los Angeles to the Bruins last season. The Spartans will surely remember that game with all 5 starters returned from last year?s disappointing squad, and Michigan State will dominate offensively in the paint. The Bruins are a good defensive team on the perimeter, allowing just 25% 3-pointers, but they?ve given up 52% shooting inside the arc (the national average is 48% on 2-pointers) and the Spartans are certainly equipped to attack that weakness, as they?ve made 54% of their 2-point attempts. My ratings favor Michigan State by 20 ? points in this game and the Spartans would qualify in a solid 68-30-2 ATS non-conference home revenge situation if they become a favorite of 16 points or less (the angle is still decent for favorites of more than 16 points). I?ll lean with Michigan State to beat up on the Bruins and I?ll take Michigan State in a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 16 points or less.
Manhattan (+15 ?) 65 ARIZONA 75
Arizona is really struggling on the offensive side of the floor this season, shooting just 39.9% from the field. That percentage will go up against a Manhattan team that doesn?t defend well (47.6% FG allowed), but the Wildcats still shouldn?t be favored by as many points as they are. Manhattan, despite their bad defense, is a solid team that is 4-1 ATS this season and has covered all 5 as an underdog against non-conference foes since the beginning of last season, including a spread win at NC State this year. Arizona, meanwhile, is just 1-4 ATS this season laying more than 3 points and the Wildcats have a history of struggling early in the season when favored, especially if they enter a game on a winning streak. Arizona is just 18-39-2 ATS in all regular season games as a favorite of more than 3 points after consecutive victories, including 2-17-1 ATS if they?re coming off a win over a non-conference opponent (1-13-1 ATS in the pre-conference part of the season). Their one such game in that role this season was a 67-62 win as a 14 point favorite against Utah in a game that I cashed as a Best Bet winner on the Utes. My ratings favor Arizona by just 12 ? points and the Jaspers have a profitable 56% chance of covering at the current line of +15 ? points. I?ll take 17 points or more with Manhattan in a 2-Star Best Bet.
SACRAMENTO (-8 ?) 113 Washington 99
Washington is playing their 4th game in 5 nights and they may not have the energy necessary to defend the Kings tonight. The Wizards apply to a negative 71-144-4 ATS 4th game in 5 nights situation and they?ve had trouble against good teams again this season. Washington is 11-1 straight up against teams that are currently under .500, but they?re only 3-8 against good teams this season ? continuing a trend that started a few years ago. The Wizards are now 33-65-3 ATS as an underdog or pick against a team with a win percentage of .570 or higher, including 2-5 ATS this season and the Kings play their best at home, where they are 62-36-2 ATS the last 3-plus seasons in regular season game when not favored by more than 12 points. My ratings favor Sacramento by just 6 ? points in this game (by 9 points using only Washington?s road games against the Kings? home games), and I?m not willing to give up this much line value to make the Kings a Best Bet. Sacramento still has a solid 55% chance of covering at the current line of -8 ? points, but I?d only take Sacramento in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. Chris Webber may not play for the Kings tonight, but Webber has missed a lot of games in recent years and the Kings are actually ? a point better when he hasn?t played and they are a much better defensive team when he is sitting on the bench (1.00 points per possession allowed) than when he is on the floor (1.09 ppp allowed). So, it really doesn?t make a difference whether Webber plays or not (although the line may drop if he does not play).