Shadow Sports MLB

[Shadow Sports]

Milwaukee Brewers +109 at Arizona

Pick made at 11:50 EST 6/16/2014

The play is on the Milwaukee Brewers +109 at Arizona for 1.0% of one's bankroll.

Milwaukee is traveling to Arizona across a couple of time zones so "jet lag" is somewhat of a concern. It's also a concern for training staffs so the players tend to find out that most of their activities of daily living are addressed in a "concierge"-type style.

Arizona is returning home from Los Angeles

The weather is going to be beautiful with an expected game-time high of 101 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) . With the extremely LOW desert humidity, that is quite comfortable playing weather. 20% humidity is about the TOPS that one wants; after that, things start getting "muggy" and "uncomfortable."


One certainly does not want to walk on the pavement but perspiration evaporates rapidly which keeps things cool.


Line opened up on the Brewers at +102 and has sinced climbed to +112 at BetCRIS and Guardian and sits at +109 here at the Olympic Sports Group (The Greek) lines/odds.

5 Dimes and Pinny have the Brewers at +107. The Greek is now showing +110. I bet at +109.

Diamondbacks took 2 out of 3 from Milwaukee in early May but the play of Arizona has taken a decided turn for the worse recently.

D'backs' starter Brandon McCarthey has been getting roughed up by opposing offenses although his strikeout/walk ratio is pretty good BUT THEN if one is dishing out base hits like candy thennnnn.....

Wily Peralta isn't the greatest pitcher in the world but he does pitch well against the poorer offensive teams.

Milwaukee is not going to let the fate of this game rest on Peralta though; expect a quick exit if he falters and watch Brewers coaching rotate in reliever-after-releiver to preserve a victory against a D'backs' offense that is struggling but has shown signs of potency.

The "potency" motif is somewhat diminished by Arizona's offense not really contributing their fair share of runs scored to the 50/50 o/u totals in their most recent games.

Arizona's DEFENSE yielding runs has been what has been sending these games OVER.

Brewers hit righthanded pitching fairly well and the D'backs' McCarthy is not all that great of a righthanded MLB Pitcher.

Take the BREWERS at +109

 

[Shadow Sports]

Baltimore +107 over Tampa Bay

Baltimore +107 over Tampa Bay

Pick made at 11:58 EST 6/16/2014

The play is Baltimore +107 at Tampa Bay for 1.0% of one's bankroll.


Bookmaker opened the betting/wagering yesterday at Rays @ -110 and we saw the line rise in favor of the Rays to a high of Rays @ -121 before settling back down to Rays @ -117.

Chen is pitching extremely well for Baltimore and has shown excellent control in his most recent outings. Chen hasn't pitched deeply into too many games so there is clearly some concern on the part of the Orioles' coaching that they should rely on a good- to solid- stable of bullpen relievers to preserve his victories.

The Rays do not provide that good of offensive support for righthanded starter, Jake Odorizzi who has been roughed up lately by opposing batters and he himself has had control problems just about all season long in dishing out bases-on-balls to the opposing offenses.


The last thing one wants when watching a game with MONEY RIDING ON THE LINE is your starting pitcher putting a bunch of men on base and having to turn into a MAGICIAN by figuratively "pulling rabbits out of his [magician's] hat" inning after inning.

5 Dimes has the Orioles at +109 on their regularly favorable no-juice line and Baltimore +1.5 at -190 on their reduced-juice offering.

The Greek now has Baltimore @ +110. I bet the game at +107

Take the Orioles at +107

 

[Shadow Sports]

SDG/SEA Under 7.0 total runs scored @ -115

SDG/SEA Under 7.0 total runs scored @ -115

Pick posted at 12:58 EST 6/16/2014

SDG/SEA UNDER 7.0 runs @ -115 is the play for 1.0% of one's bankroll.

This is not as intuitive a proposition as it seems on its face. The Sportsbook industry norm of 7.5 runs scored per MLB matchup would show this game @-145 so one needs to have sufficient justification to take the UNDER here.

The first point of validation is that both teams offensively are playing even poorer than normal.

8 of the Mariners' last 10 games have gone UNDER the posted o/u total. More telling is that 7 of their last 10 games have had posted o/u totals of 7 runs or less... 3 of those had a posted o/u total of 6.5 total runs scored with two of those three games going UNDER and of the remaining 4 games where the posted o/u total was 7.0 total runs scored, we see that 2 of those 4 went UNDER the posted 7.0 total.

The 3 remaining games had 2 posted at 7.5 runs and one game @ 8.0 runs... all 3 games went UNDER.

In 6 of the 7 games that went UNDER, the Mariners' poor offensive play would serve as the assignable cause.

Now the Mariners offense is forced to go up against the Padres' Tyson Ross who has pitched well all season as well as having pitched well recently.

The CLINCHER for the UNDER bettor in this game is not Tyson Ross BUT INSTEAD the Mariners' bullpen. The Padres are just awful offensively so expect the Mariners to quickly go to a well-rested bullpen of capable relievers if Starting Pitcher, Chris Young falters.

Since UNDER 7.5 Runs @ -145 would be justified then UNDER 7.0 runs @ -115 is justified.

Pinny now has the UNDER @ -103 and 5 Dimes has it @ -107.

The Greek is now showing the UNDER @ -110. I myself bet the UNDER @ -115.


Take the UNDER @ -115 for 1.0% of one's bankroll

 

[Shadow Sports]

MLB 6/17/2014 SDG/SEA Under 7.5 runs @ -120 for 1.0% of one's bankroll

MLB 6/17/2014 SDG/SEA Under 7.5 runs @ -120 for 1.0% of one's bankroll

SDG/SEA Under 7.5 runs @ -120 for 1.0% of one's bankroll

It's pretty obvious by now that the Padres are not relying on their offense to win baseball games and their emphasis has been as much on keeping a healthy rotation within their starting pitching and bullpen relief personnel.


Bookie opened the o/u totals wagering at UNDER 7.5 total runs scored @ -117 and bettors everywhere except 5 Dimes, Island Casino and Sport Bet have jumped on the UNDER to where Heritage, YouWager and SBO have now dropped the O/U number to UNDER 7.0 total runs scored at +100 or close to that.


8 of Seattle's last 10 games have gone UNDER the O/U total including the last 4 in a row.






7 of San Diego's last 10 have gone UNDER the posted O/U total including the last 3 in a row.


3 of the last 4 games between the Mariners and Padres have gone UNDER as have 5 of the last 7 times these teams have met.




Restricting our scrutiny to the games where the posted O/U totals were at 7.0 runs, 6.5 runs and yessss, 6.0 runs we see that the bookie has posted the O/U line at one of those numbers 4 out of the last 10 meetings going back to June of 2012.


The guys who set the odds and try to split the public's money evenly are having a tough time putting a low enough number on these matchups.


Against all opposition, Seattle has had a posted O/U Total of 7.0 or lower in 8 of their last 10 games.


The 2 remaining games posted at 7.5 runs both went UNDER. All 3 games posted at 6.5 runs also went UNDER.


Mariners lefthander, Roenis Elias is pitching well as of late against some pretty talented ball clubs. He is backed up by some good pitching in the Mariners' bullpen


With San Diego's offensive woes, that Mariners' pitching supports an UNDER bet.


Blaine Boyer was brought up from El Paso to pitch middle relief for the Padres and performed well in last night's game.


Boyer gave up no hits or walks and struck out 1 in the 18 pitches that he threw.


Padres' starter,Eric Stults doesn't hang around too long in games before he gets yanked and today will be no exception if he shows the coaching staff that he can't get the job done against a very weak Mariners offense, particularly with the Padres pitching well coming out of the bullpen.


Padres are awful against quality lefthanded pitching.


Take the UNDER


SPAM :BANNED