Shareclub meeting october notes:hospital visit and Patience

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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One week ago Friday had my latest shareclub, these are monthly gatherings.

everyone talked abot their losses and some gains not to many. some trades worked but most long positions were off down. a little surprised that some did not have stops, or buy puts (though they are expensive, now).

talked about one option trade that worked out well and spent more time on a large mistake I made. on thursday morning before the meeting bought UYG near the open and close to the high. this was for a small amount, but still a mistake. espcially when I stated was not interest in the double etf unless it was less the $9. bought some beliow 9 it is 8.25. in a bear market must learn patience and not chase, it is better to put really low ball bids in than it is to chase.

someone in the club gave points to why he was bearish on mining stocks and especially on TCK.B, TCK Teck. he made several good points, must point out owned the stock, though had a loss.
he also broke down the fording deal, he was correct and on the following monday sold tck, which saved me a great deal of money. still lost on the stock however it broke down from 18cdn. to below 13. even went to 12. this play will add to profits, however if met coal prices fall then they will be in big trouble, and may have to cut the dividends.

at this point in time would rather look in base metal stocks with far less debt and no chance of cutting their div. also copper has fallen below $2. so this is trouble to tck. this company during good times could be worth 60, however if this gets worse then tck goes from 13cdn. to 8cdn. or less... so will watch for now...will look at it again if it breaks above 18 and copper rebounds.


went to the hospital, or my walk in clinic, anyways just had a bump on my back, they told me it is not cancer, was happy and next month it will be removed so will just have a few stitches. have not found anyone who is more terrified of clinics or hospitals, than myself.

not sure why; do not fear death, maybe just long illness, or people wasting aways, know many doctors and nurses however could never do their job believe my bloood presure and stress level increases within 10 min. of being there....
only spent one night in hospital in my life and hope to keep that number low forever.
may sound dumb but would prefer to be in a buring building than a hospital, (note: volunteered for two years at the local volunteer fire department, however only fought around a dozen fires, the training was harder in most cases. anyways enjoyed that more than visisting a doctor.)

in this market going to show more patience and put in low bids. also wrote uncovered calls on the 25% of my energy portfolio still hold. and some other stocks. not bad $1-$3 dollars for 1-3 month options that are 40-50% out of the money.

happy investing and do not chase, or you will lose money liike I did in the UYG trade. still like it just will build position more slowly and at much lower prices.

thanks
selkirk
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Jul 13, 1999
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Great to hear favorable report from doctor--I have had small bump on my arm for years--which Dr says is fatty tissue and no prob.

--always look forward to your posts especially on resources. Have never seen a market like this--the dot com fiasco could be explained by hyped up stocks with little substance but speculation.

--however today have never seen so many stocks with PE below 5 and solid earnings and cash positions. Was a time we'd find these comapnies and think we struck gold--now they are common place and keep going down.

Certainly has been hard to throttle back and not jump on several of these. Am currently about 35 to 40% in stocks and I have curbed my urge by making a rule that I can't buy another stock unless I sell one I have--and its been a struggle but have managed to abide by rule for most part.

My biggest question would be- at what point can we say this is behind us--and begin to gradually increase stock positions-- would be curious to your thoughts. Thanks
 

selkirk

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DTB that is a good and difficult question. talked to someone who has about 25% stocks and the rest long term bonds 20-30 years.

he wondered how we missed it, he thought the market could correct but not this sharp of a correction, neither did I, this sell off is about double what expected even in the resource sector.

someone I know would buy oil stock, just told him that he should not be overweight and what if oil hit 80, which it could do....should have said 60 but would have never thought it would go break 80 from 100 so quickly.

overall I am a tmid bull....have a position in UYG avg cost 8.75, have 75% of my position would look at buying the rest around 7.
note this stock is volatile it can trade from 7-10.20.
this will be held for a few months, probably. and is a small position...to buy a straight etf may just make more sense., still small position.

back to the question: the financials have to show strength and numbers.

libor rates should come down, they are very slowly.
companies must be able to get money, most are however the rates in some cases are brutal. these rates will have to come down.

metal prices, just look at base metal prices and oil. copper is below 2. 1.80, if it moves higher a bullish sign, along with the others.

general earnings of companies, some will be off, and the earnings estimates of most of these companies are to high going forward. still there are some companies reported great results and who stocks have held up, ie. cnr rail (CNR, CNI), good numbers, what is new. only own a small amount as it did not drop enough on monday.
and then spiked on tuesday.

I have increased my energy positions to 40% (of the normal amount) this will increase to 50%, and if oil breaks 60 the amount will go back to 25-30%.
stocks like SU, CNQ, just are cheap, so is tLM
may build up a position in devon again.
would hedge most of these positions, as calls are paying huge premiums. will sell call 1-3 months, it get taken out would make 15-20+% in 1 -3 months for a new position could handle that....

in this environment expected at least a snap back rally however have expected this for the last couple of weeks, and nothing.

this rally could be big if it does happen and still in a bear market, so could be a bear trap... so would keep a healthy amount of cash more than normal, better safe than sorry..... or hedged much more than normal.

at least 20% on the sidelines is not a bad idea, in case we get another brutal downturn... which hope does not happen.

after the snap back rally believe we trade sideways, brutal week, then good week.

fianlly look at different sectors, like resources that have been washed out, however tread carefully, some of these selloff can drag on....

many mines are closing, and very little exploration, and drilling for oil and gas has dropped sharply. this will take a while to hit but when it does the resouce sector comes back, strong.....

for US stocks bought WMT low 50s 52.75, may sell some at 58-60, half,
MO, probably a long term holiding, at 18.90
still have HD (yes some day will make a profit),
and bought emerging etf, on tuesday, just on strenght, if the rally stops, will take sell and go home, however eem or vwo are cheap.


thanks
selkirk
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Jul 13, 1999
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Quite interesting Thanks

MO one of few U.S. stocks I have left.

Have funny story about WMT

My father retired from chrysler some 20years ago.

He got a bunch of shares of chrysler on retirement--he asked me what I thought he should do with them--told him not good to have all his eggs in one basket so told him I sell and buy another stock or 2--didn't think about again till year or so later--but found out the boys at the coffee shop were all WMT fans so he sold all of Chrysler stock and bought all WMT.

I don't know what I would have encouraged him to buy- had he asked--but needless to say wouldn't have been as good as advice as his coffeee crew gave him. :)
 
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