SHARP MOVES Week 16

[Senor Capper]

(Rotation #102) Buffalo +2.5 - This is definitely the sharpest play on the board this week. The Bills are playing at home in the cold weather against a Miami team which really needs this game to have a shot at getting into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the offensive line problems for Miami still haven't been fixed, and the pass rush for Buffalo is still the strength of its team. Truthfully, we believe that the Bills should be the favored side in this one, and the less than 30% of the public betting on this game believe the same as we do. There's a reason the oddsmakers aren't pushing this one to '3' even with all of the public action on the Fins.

Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Miami






(Rotation #106) Washington +2.5 - Go ahead. Ask yourself the question. How in the heck is WASHINGTON sharp? The Redskins have been an abysmal wreck all season long, but they did show a pulse last week against the Falcons, coming from behind to hit the backdoor right at the end of the game. Could the same be said about this week? QB Kirk Cousins turns the ball over in the clutch less than QB Tony Romo (obviously!), and that might make all the difference in the world. Dallas has proven that it can collapse under any circumstance, and going on the road, even against a team which doesn't want to play anymore football this year, could be another one of these situations.

Opening Line: Washington +2.5
Current Line: Washington +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Dallas






(Rotation #107) Tampa Bay +5.5 - It's funny how the public always react to what it sees most recently. Most recently, it saw the Bucs get killed by the 49ers in a game which, by the way, was actually a close game until the wheels sort of fell off there in the third quarter. And most recently, the Rams destroyed the Saints, who are still perceived to be one of the best teams in the NFL, though we aren't all that sure whether they are or they aren't at this point. It just created a goofy looking line in this game. The Rams don't necessarily have the best team on the field in this one, but the oddsmakers are insinuating they are going to win by a healthy margin. The dial has moved a tad in this one, but not enough to sway away the sharp bettors.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on St. Louis [/COLOR]

 

[WildBillPicks7]

(Rotation #102) Buffalo +2.5 - This is definitely the sharpest play on the board this week. The Bills are playing at home in the cold weather against a Miami team which really needs this game to have a shot at getting into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the offensive line problems for Miami still haven't been fixed, and the pass rush for Buffalo is still the strength of its team. Truthfully, we believe that the Bills should be the favored side in this one, and the less than 30% of the public betting on this game believe the same as we do. There's a reason the oddsmakers aren't pushing this one to '3' even with all of the public action on the Fins.

Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Miami






(Rotation #106) Washington +2.5 - Go ahead. Ask yourself the question. How in the heck is WASHINGTON sharp? The Redskins have been an abysmal wreck all season long, but they did show a pulse last week against the Falcons, coming from behind to hit the backdoor right at the end of the game. Could the same be said about this week? QB Kirk Cousins turns the ball over in the clutch less than QB Tony Romo (obviously!), and that might make all the difference in the world. Dallas has proven that it can collapse under any circumstance, and going on the road, even against a team which doesn't want to play anymore football this year, could be another one of these situations.

Opening Line: Washington +2.5
Current Line: Washington +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Dallas






(Rotation #107) Tampa Bay +5.5 - It's funny how the public always react to what it sees most recently. Most recently, it saw the Bucs get killed by the 49ers in a game which, by the way, was actually a close game until the wheels sort of fell off there in the third quarter. And most recently, the Rams destroyed the Saints, who are still perceived to be one of the best teams in the NFL, though we aren't all that sure whether they are or they aren't at this point. It just created a goofy looking line in this game. The Rams don't necessarily have the best team on the field in this one, but the oddsmakers are insinuating they are going to win by a healthy margin. The dial has moved a tad in this one, but not enough to sway away the sharp bettors.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on St. Louis [/COLOR]

Last look, 80% on Dallas and still no line movement, I hardly ever See Vegas move a 2 1/2 line when knowing that many games land on 3-4 pts. Home Dog plays the past 3 weeks have been $$$. Also only 1 week left of the regular season with all those playoff scenarios still out there for Divisional leaders - Eagles getting lil respect and laughed at, they are 5-26 L31 at home ATS? That's hard to believe.

GL w/yer playz Senor!!

:0008

 

[bjfinste]

Dallas is -3 at every book in Vegas that I have seen. I looked all over for a 2.5 today and couldn't find one.

 

[Destructor D]

You would have to buy Dallas down...

You would have to buy Dallas down...

Just took Dallas -2.5 (-125)? yes, public play for sure, but the Deadskins. I mean they are so abysmal and think they get rolled in a must win game for the Cowgirls. If Dallas loses, they're done unless Bears win. Dallas should show up Sunday IMHO and Romo is so much better than Cousin-It.

 

[Destructor D]

You would have to buy Dallas down...

You would have to buy Dallas down...

Just took Dallas -2.5 (-125) buying half-point? yes, public play for sure, but the Deadskins? I mean they are so abysmal and think they get rolled in a must win game for the Cowgirls. If Dallas loses, they're done unless Bears win. Dallas should show up Sunday IMHO and Romo is so much better than Cousin-It. Skins had their last cover for the year last week. They get rolled per normal tomorrow. See a 34-24 type of game.

 

[talos]

Starting next yr, The NFL will get 3 bil per from FOX, CBS, NBC, another 2 bil from ESPN and another 2 bil from other media. That's 7 bil yearly for a league the has 1/5 the games of NBA NHL, 1/10 the games of MLB, and 1 gm elim playoffs.

Luckily for the NFL more and more teams are in the hunt for the playoffs until late in the season and late season games are closer and closer no matter how improbable the scenarios.

If Dal loses, then Phi must lose and therefore GB must win. It seems simpler for Dal to win, then if GB wins or loses, Chi can simply follow suit.

If Mia wins, the Bal must win. Based purely on ratings, the best scenario would be for Mia and Bal to win this wk and NE to win next wk and Mia to lose next wk. It's important for NE and Bal to be in the playoffs in the small market AFC. But Florida is football country. 3 NFL franchises and 2 are in the toilet. Plus Mia has been damaged by bad publicity. No one stresses the partnership aspect more than the NFL.

For example, since when does a lowly franchise likely NO get the hottest, can't miss coaching prospect all set to inherent the important Dal franchise from Parcells, like Sean Payton? After Katrina that's when. And a decision was made at the highest political and business levels to save the city. With a talented and established qb thrown in to ensure a good start.

 

[talos]

And the winner is........ So far networks, sponsors, and sharps. Dal wins with a stirring last minute victory, setting next wks game but doesn't cover. Alas Mia suffers from the same obstacles as LA in the Sunday ratings game but in a smaller market. And let's not forget with Mia loss SD still has a hypothetical chance. Ya gotta believe, go Chargers.

 

[talos]

I should have mentioned in connection with the Chargers that the Mia loss made it possible for Bal loss and SD win would keep it a 3 team race. I didn't really think they would try to milk it that far, But hey it's the AFC and NY and Hou have been out of it for some time.

I do have a bone to pick with the NFL though. There were 3 games with no playoff appeal. Ten-Jac, NY-Cle, TB-Stl. The better teams all won, Ten missed the cover by 1, and there were absolutely no thrills spills chills. All 3 games were pedestrian wins, being competitive in the 1st half and the better team pulling away in the 2nd, clinching with long periods of time remaining. All of theses games involve throwing, running, jumping catching. Where were the amazing reversals and under 60 second drives? You could argue that Den-Hou and Min-Cin didn't really have that much playoff significance. I think it was pretty clear Den and Cin were in. Once again they just won and covered pulling away from their weaker opp.

 

[talos]

To point put the obvious AZ win keeps them alive.

But what about GB? Pit scores a td and kicks off with 135 left. 1min and 15 sec later GB has a 2nd and goal at the Pit 1yd line. But they get a procedure call. 5yds and a 10sec runoff because no time outs. They miss on the next play and lose.

Now Chi can clinch and the game will be meaningless for Phi because Dal has the tiebreaker. They must beat Dal next wk or they're out. Of course that would make next wks Chi-GB game meaningless.

So does everyone jump on Chi?

 

[BuddyWright]

Senor I believe some of the guys posting in this tread
have been reading way too many conspiracy books my friend.....lol

Good Luck on your plays