Vegas Line Moves - Week 4
Vegas Line Moves - Week 4
Two divisional games in Week 4 of the NFL season have seen the biggest line movement so far, but for much different reasons. The betting public looks to be all over the Green Bay Packers heading into their NFC North showdown with the Chicago Bears on Sunday while a potential change of quarterbacks has impacted the line in an AFC South matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts.
Johnny Avello, The Wynn?s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said he feels the public is overreacting to a ?desperate? Green Bay team ?needing? to win at Chicago in order to keep pace with the Bears and Detroit Lions in the division. The Packers opened as 1-point road favorites against Chicago and have been bet up to -2.5, although Avello said he does not think the line would get to -3.
?They don?t look good right now,? Avello said of Green Bay. ?Sometimes you watch a team like this, you say, here?s Aaron Rodgers, won a Super Bowl, looking like a team that?s going to be a contender for many years to come. And it doesn?t work out. As good as Aaron Rodgers is, maybe all the components around him that make this team work, maybe they?re not there. You start to question them a little bit.?
On the other hand, Avello said this is a great opportunity for the Bears to go out and take an early two-game division lead on their bitter rivals. Chicago does not play another divisional matchup until after its bye in Week 9, visiting the Packers, hosting the Minnesota Vikings and traveling to Detroit in three of the following four games.
?I think last week against the Jets was a pretty good game for them,? Avello said. ?The game before that, they were a little lucky. But this is a game where they can possibly make a statement in the division. You win a game like this, you put this Green Bay team on its heels. That?s what you kind of want to do. Cutler?s a good quarterback, he?s just not a consistent quarterback.?
Maybe the public is just betting on a more consistent QB in Rodgers over the inconsistent Cutler, who is just 1-9 lifetime against the Packers. In Indianapolis, the Colts opened as 7-point favorites off their first win of the season and host a Titans team that is likely to start a different QB in veteran Charlie Whitehurst, who is expected to replace the injured Jake Locker (wrist).
?I just took that game up to 8.5,? Avello said after news broke that Locker was questionable but unlikely to play on Sunday. ?That?s because of that announcement. Another thing in that game is that Indianapolis picks up a wide receiver who wasn?t sure he was going to play in T.Y. Hilton.
?So you have one guy out, you have another guy being added to the Colts, and it all points to raising the spread. I think the players will bet Indianapolis this week.?
Another QB change will take place in Minnesota, where the Vikings will give rookie Teddy Bridgewater his first career start against the Atlanta Falcons as 3-point home underdogs. With Matt Cassel out for the season with a foot injury and All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson still battling legal issues, the Falcons have moved up slightly after opening at -2.5. Avello said Minnesota?s offensive struggles are compounded by Peterson continuing to be out, putting even more pressure on Bridgewater.
?Now you?re relying on this kid to do more than what?s really expected of a rookie,? Avello said. ?If you have Peterson, you give him the ball, and then you let your quarterback throw on first down sometimes for surprises, you let him throw on third down when you need four or five yards. But when you?re putting the weight on Bridgewater to carry this team to a win, it?s tough.?
One of the marquee games later in the day will see the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles visit the San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles have won five of the last six meetings with the 49ers both straight-up and against the spread, and they have also won six of their past seven road games. San Francisco opened as a 4.5-point favorite at The Wynn and has received a little support up to -5.
?The Niners don?t deserve to be a 5-point favorite, but you have to look at the spot,? Avello said. ?The 49ers have lost a couple in a row, they?re going to be home now. They don?t lose much there.
?Maybe Philly?s a little complacent being 3-0, not a division game for them. Even though Philly?s scoring a lot of points, they?ve been giving up a bunch too. The 49er offense is definitely going to be able to move the ball here. This is one of those games where the 49ers probably won?t have the spread covered early, but maybe in the fourth quarter they?re able to keep scoring.?
Week 4 Betting Moves
Rotation Team Open Current Move
251 DOLPHINS 3.5 3.5 0
252 RAIDERS - - -
253 PACKERS - 2 -
254 BEARS 0 - -2
255 BILLS - - -
256 TEXANS 3.5 3 -0.5
257 TITANS - - -
258 COLTS 6.5 8 1.5
259 PANTHERS - - -
260 RAVENS 3 3.5 0.5
261 LIONS 1.5 2 0.5
262 JETS - - -
263 BUCCANEERS - - -
264 STEELERS 8 7.5 -0.5
265 JAGUARS - - -
266 CHARGERS 11.5 13 1.5
267 EAGLES - - -
268 49ERS 4 5 1
269 FALCONS 2.5 3 0.5
270 VIKINGS - - -
271 SAINTS 3.5 3 -0.5
272 COWBOYS - - -
273 PATRIOTS 3.5 3 -0.5
274 CHIEFS - - -
