Sharp Moves - Wild Card

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,639
104
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com




(Rotation 101/102) ? Lions (48) at Cowboys (-6.5)
Detroit is actually a modestly sharp team at this point. The Cowboys have come down from -7 to -6.5 in spite of the fact that they have had 57 percent of the bets on their side. The 'total' has held firm all week long and doesn't look like it is moving in spite of the fact that starting defensive tackle Nick Fairley could likely miss this game.





(Rotation 103/104) ? Ravens (45) at Steelers (-3)
Keep a really close eye on the 'total' for this game over the course of the next 48 hours or so. The weather forecast is looking gloomier and gloomier for Saturday night. Rain is expected all day in the Steel City, and the forecast as of Thursday evening is calling for a 100 percent chance of rain. Already, we have seen this number dip from 47 down to 45. Sixty-one percent of the bets in this game have been on the home team, though it should be noted that the two games in this series this year were each decided by exactly 20 points.






(Rotation 105/106) ? Cardinals (37.5) at Panthers (-6.5)
Another game where Mother Nature is clearly going to play a role. Rain, wind, and cold conditions aren't anything like what the Cardinals are used to, and they aren't anything like what QB Ryan Lindley has gotten used to in his career. Remember that Lindley played his high school and college ball in San Diego, and rarely did he come across a game which he had to play in the rain. It shouldn't be surprising that this spread is up from -4.5 to -6.5, while the 'total' has come down from 39 to 37.5. Clearly, there is waning confidence in what Arizona is bringing to the table even though Carolina is a sub-.500 team.






(Rotation 107/108) ? Bengals (49) at Colts (-3)
The battle of quarterbacks who "can't win the big game." QB Andrew Luck and QB Andy Dalton have 14 picks between them in six playoff starts, and the two only have one win between them (Luck last season). Still, the 'total' is relatively high in this one, which is also odd considering the fact that these two teams combined for just 27 points when they played three months ago. Sixty-one percent of the bets in this game are on the Colts, yet the line has dipped a full point from -4 down to -3. The 'total' has stuck at 49 all week, but the sharpness of the Bengals should not be ignored.
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,639
104
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com

**Cincinnati at Indianapolis**

-- As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Indianapolis (11-5 straight up, 10-5-1 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 49. Gamblers can take the Bengals on the money line for a +160 return (risk $100 to win $160). For first-half wagers, the Colts are favored by 2.5 (-120) or three (even money) with a total of 24.5.

-- Chuck Pagano's squad won six of its eight home games while posting a 5-2-1 spread record. Indy has won three in a row at home, going 2-0-1 ATS. Regardless of the venue, the Colts have won five of their last six games, including a 27-10 win at Tennessee in the regular-season finale. They took the cash as 7.5-point road 'chalk.' Andrew Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes without being intercepted.

-- Indy has been a single-digit favorite 13 times, going 8-4-1 ATS.

-- Cincinnati (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) had won four in a row on the road until dropping a 27-17 decision at Pittsburgh as a three-point underdog in last week's regular-season finale. Andy Dalton threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the losing effort, but he was also intercepted twice. Jeremy Hill ran for 100 yards on 23 carries. A.J. Green had eight receptions for 82 yards, but he also sustained a concussion.

-- Green didn't practiced all week and was ruled 'out' Saturday afternoon. This is obviously a huge development as Green is one of the NFL's top wide receivers. During the regular season, Green hauled in 69 catches for 1,041 yards and six TDs. He missed three games earlier in the year.

-- Dalton has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,398 yards, but he has a mediocre 19/17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The fourth-year QB has led the Bengals to the postseason ever since getting drafted, but he's still looking for his first victory in the playoffs.

-- Hill has enjoyed a breakout season as a rookie, rushing for 1,124 yards and nine TDs. Hill, an LSU product who started only eight games, averaged 5.1 yards per carry.

-- Marvin Lewis's defense is led by a pair of Florida Gators. Reggie Nelson has a team-high 62 solo tackles along with 33 assists. Nelson also has four interceptions, 1.5 sacks and 12 passes defended. Carlos Dunlap has a team-best eight sacks to with a pair of forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

-- Luck has completed 61.7 percent of his throws for 4,761 yards with a 40/16 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for three TDs. His favorite target is T.Y. Hilton, who has made 82 catches for 1,345 yards and seven TDs. Veteran WR Reggie Wayne has 64 receptions for 779 yards and two TDs, while TEs Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener have both brought down eight TD catches apiece.

-- The 'over' is 9-7 overall for the Colts, 4-4 in their home games. However, the 'under' has cashed in four straight Indy games and five of its last six.

-- The 'under' is 10-6 overall for the Bengals, 7-1 in their road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.







**Detroit at Dallas**

-- As of Saturday afternoon, most spots had Dallas (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) listed as a seven-point 'chalk'at even money. Gamblers can take the Lions on the money line for a +250 payout (risk $100 to win $250). For first-half bets, the Cowboys are favored by four with a total of 24.

-- Detroit (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) had won four in a row until dropping a 30-20 decision at Green Bay last weekend. The showdown at Lambeau Field determined the NFC North winner and the Packers earned a bye and a weekend of rest. The Lions failed to cover the spread for the third straight game, disappointing their backers as 8.5-point road underdogs.

-- In the loss at Green Bay, Matt Stafford threw for 217 yards and three TDs without an interception. Calvin Johnson caught four balls for 39 yards and two TDs.

-- Stafford has connected on 60.3 percent of his passes for 4,257 yards with a 22/12 TD-INT ratio. Johnson missed three games but still managed to haul in 71 catches for 1,077 yards and eight TDs. Golden Tate enjoyed a career year, making 99 receptions for 1,331 yards and four TDs.

-- With Reggie Bush missing five games due to injuries, Joique Bell emerged as the featured back. Bell ran for a team-high 860 yards and seven TDs, but his yards-per-carry average was only 3.9.

-- Dallas appeared to be in trouble on Thanksgiving Day when it fell one game back of Philadelphia in the NFC East race. The Eagles went into Arlington and smashed the Cowboys by a 33-10 count. Nevertheless, Dallas responded by winning four in a row both SU and ATS with each victory coming by double-digit margins.

-- Tony Romo has enjoyed a monster season, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 3,705 yards with a 34/9 TD-INT ratio. He was sensational in December, throwing 12 TD passes compared to only one interception in the last four games.

-- Dallas RB DeMarco Murray led the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards. Murray rushed for 13 TDs and averaged 4.7 YPC.

-- Dallas WR Dez Bryant had a team-high 88 catches for 1,320 yards and 16 TDs. Jason Witten was steady as always, bringing down 64 receptions for 703 yards and five TDs.

-- Detroit leads the NFL in rushing defense, giving up only 69.3 yards per game. Jim Caldwell's club is third in scoring defense, allowing only 17.6 points per game. The Lions are No. 2 in the league in total defense.

-- Dallas went undefeated on the road this season, only to inexplicably struggle at home. The Cowboys won just four of eight home games while going 3-5 ATS at Jerry World.

-- Detroit went 4-4 SU on the road, but it had a miserable 2-6 ATS ledger. As a road underdog, the Lions compiled a 2-3 record both SU and ATS.

-- The 'under' has been a money maker in Detroit games this season, cashing at an 11-5 overall clip. When the Lions have played on the road, the 'under' has gone 7-1.

-- The 'over' is 9-6-1 overall for Dallas, but the 'under' has produced at a 5-2-1 clip in its home outings.

-- FOX will have the telecast at 4:40 p.m. Eastern.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top