SHARP PLAYS - WEEK 8

[Senor Capper]

St. Louis +7 ? Though there has been some line movement in the direction of the Seahawks, it certainly doesn't warrant the stunning 90 percent of the bets which have come in on Seattle this week. The Rams just haven't played to their best this year, but this is a team which always plays at a really high level in these divisional games. Heck, St. Louis is just six days removed from being up two touchdowns on the San Francisco 49ers. Many just make the assumption that the Seahawks are going to come out angry about their loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys and whoop up on a suspect team, but this is a heck of a lot of points to be giving a team that?s generally is tough to blow out; especially in its own house.

Opening Line: St. Louis +6.5
Current Line: St. Louis +7
Public Betting Percentage: 90% on Seattle




Detroit -3 ? A rare situation where a home team and a favored team is sharp for sure. For some reason, bettors still believe in the Saints even though TE Jimmy Graham is out of the lineup, handicapping QB Drew Brees by taking away his favorite target. The Lions are getting healthy, though they are still without WR Calvin Johnson, and most believe that the Detroit offense begins and ends with Megatron. There's some merit to that for sure, but this is basically going to be the fourth game without Megatron out there, and there is some talent to be had in Motown. It's the Detroit defense which has our eye though, as this defensive line is one of the best in the league. The Lions have the better of these two teams, but neither the betting line nor the reaction from the general public suggests that to be the case.

Opening Line: Detroit -2.5
Current Line: Detroit -3
Public Betting Percentage: 61% on New Orleans





Oakland +3.5 ? The Raiders are once again on our list of sharp picks for the third straight week, and this is probably as sharp a play as we?ve seen all year long. Sharp bettors have been losing, but they?re playing the percentages and lining up to bet against an Arizona team which is overrated at 4-1. The Raiders should have won last week against San Diego, but stupid mistakes cost them in the end. Those dumb mistakes will work themselves out week after week, and in the end, Oakland is ultimately going to win games like these more often than not. In Sparano we trust!

Opening Line: Oakland +4
Current Line: Oakland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 84% on Arizona

 

[WildBillPicks7]

St. Louis +7 ? Though there has been some line movement in the direction of the Seahawks, it certainly doesn't warrant the stunning 90 percent of the bets which have come in on Seattle this week. The Rams just haven't played to their best this year, but this is a team which always plays at a really high level in these divisional games. Heck, St. Louis is just six days removed from being up two touchdowns on the San Francisco 49ers. Many just make the assumption that the Seahawks are going to come out angry about their loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys and whoop up on a suspect team, but this is a heck of a lot of points to be giving a team that?s generally is tough to blow out; especially in its own house.

Opening Line: St. Louis +6.5
Current Line: St. Louis +7
Public Betting Percentage: 90% on Seattle

Dallas Factor, teams that played Dallas the week before are 0-5 SU their next game. Seattle got beat by Dallas last game of course, however, Seattle off a home loss their next game is only 2-7 ATS laying 6 or more pts!!

Thanks Lanny!!

:0008

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Dallas Factor, teams that played Dallas the week before are 0-5 SU their next game. Seattle got beat by Dallas last game of course, however, Seattle off a home loss their next game is only 2-7 ATS laying 6 or more pts!!

Thanks Lanny!!

:0008

Monday Night Factor - Teams that lost SU on MNF (STL lost to SF) are, 3-2 SU their next game.

 

[Tcas]

Sharps record thru week 6

7-10-1

 

[heleanth]

St. Louis and Oakland may be sharp plays but I always feel so foolish when I lose money on them. They are both really bad teams with marginal QBs. I just can't bet them. Good luck to those that do and thanks for the info!

 

[Senor Capper]

I ONLY LIKE 1 OF 3 :0corn

 

[Speed]

Ill bite...

Ill bite...

Which One....????:shrug::shrug::shrug:

 

[Senor Capper]

said I like..........Not that I was going to play it


=========================



Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves



If it wasn't obvious before, quarterbacks are the most important position in football. Several line moves have supported this as bettors are bailing from teams with questionable QB situations this week.





Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills - Open: -5.5, Move: -4

After the three interception performance Teddy Bridgewater displayed last week, money hit the home favs early and often in this matchup. Despite the Bills losing three of their last four, Kyle Orton has proven to be a calming presence for the team since taking over the starting job.

"Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater will be making his first start on the road, it?s going to be interesting to see how he handles a very good Bills defense in a foreign environment.






Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins - Open: -4, Move: -6

Uncertainty has fueled the action in this one as it is still unknown whether QB Jake Locker or QB Charlie Whitehurst will get the start for the Titans on Sunday. In Whitehurst's last two starts he has completed 61.3 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions, but the public is far from eager to back the 32-year old journeyman backup.

"With sharps and the public now on both sides of this game, no real need to move it for now," we?re assuming Whitehurst will go for the Titans, but if Locker is announced the starting QB then expect this line to move back down to 4.5 or even 4."






Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams - Open: +6.5, Move: +7.5

After opening at the Rams +6.5, it should come as no shock that it has since moved to +7.5. St. Louis was leading the 49ers 14-0 after the first quarter Monday night, then got promptly outscored 31-3.

"After the Rams got annihilated in the second half on Monday Night, we can?t imagine they?re going to draw much support going up against a Seahawks team off a tough loss last week, with nearly 85% of the action on the Seahawks...This will be the biggest decision of the weekend for us."






Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +4, Move: +6

With a running game that ranks first in the NFL and an offense that has given up a league low two turnovers, the Browns have captures the eyes of bettors. Across the field from the Browns are the winless Jaguars who have been abysmal straight-up and against the spread.

"After seeing how well this team played against the Steelers last week, the public is fully backing the Browns in this game. With over 75% of the early action on the favorite, I don?t see us going back down unless we see some sharp action on the homedog," says Stewart.






New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -5, Move: -6.5

The Cowboys went to Qwest Field last week and shocked the world by winning in Seattle, only the second team to do that since the start of the 2012 season. However, Dallas has only gone 1-2 against the spread at home this season.

"As well as the Cowboys are playing, they have little to no home field advantage playing in Jerry?s World and their last home game QB Tony Romo had to go to a silent count because their was so much crowd noise against them





_________________________
Red

'Be kinder than necessary, for everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Dallas Factor, teams that played Dallas the week before are 0-5 SU their next game. Seattle got beat by Dallas last game of course, however, Seattle off a home loss their next game is only 2-7 ATS laying 6 or more pts!!

Thanks Lanny!!

:0008

With Wams beatin the Seachickens, make that 0-6 SU for the Dallas Factor teams that played Dallas the week before!!

:mj07: