Shell Houston Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

K.J. Choi to win 25/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and BetDirect
Siding with a player who finished 3rd in the Masters in his last outing, his third top-5 finish in eight strokeplay events on the PGA Tour this year. With a sub-par Vijay Singh the only top drawer player in the field, these look decent odds for a player who has won four times in the last two years and gained valuable course experience last year.

Jay Haas to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
It may be over a decade since his last Tour win - which was in Texas - but he still keeps getting himself into contention. He now stands 11th in the Ryder Cup Standings and looks very determined to make one last bid for that team. To do so he needs to earn points and that involves finishing in the top-10 and he has done that four times in eight strokeplay events on the PGA Tour this year. With the field lacking the 'big names' he should certainly go close again, just he did when finishing 5th on this course last year. The course may be long, but it is not prohibitive with the current golf technology and last year's top-20 is testimony to that.

Briny Baird to win 66/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Baird was one of those who finished in the top-20 last year. While he has not yet hit the form of last year when he had seven top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour, his form has been steady bar his missed cut in the Masters. Against a weak field and possessing a game that does actually warrant a claim of 'having the best second shot in golf', he could certainly contend this week if he putts well.

 

[veride]

Victor Chandler (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Jay Haas --> 33/1
Justin Leonard --> 33/1
Geoff Ogilvy --> 33/1
Stephen Ames --> 40/1

BetDirect (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

K.J.Choi --> 25/1

Blue Square (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Rory Sabbatini --> 66/1
Aaron Baddeley --> 80/1
Notah Begay III --> 200/1

and...

 

[veride]

...and Vijay Singh --> 5/1 Expekt (just win)

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Charles Howell to beat John Daly -118 @ Centrebet
Daly's bubble appears to have burst. Take out the 10th place finish at Bay Hill and his best finish in his last four starts is 69th. It was also surprising how flimsical he was he needed to get down in two shots from the back of the 18th green at the Masters to make the cut, which he failed to do. Wouldn't back Howell for the outrights - too many lessons learnt last year - but he is a far more consistent player and is coming off a top-15 finish in the Masters.

Jay Haas to beat John Daly -118 @ Expekt [3pts]
Siding with Haas in both the outrights and the matchups. If I'm opposing Daly with a player who doesn't figure in the outrights, then I'm certainly going to also oppose him with a player who does. They don't come much more consistent than this particular Tour veteran.

Jay Haas to beat Zach Johnson -130 @ WWTS
Johnson may have won this year, but this will be his debut on this course whereas Haas finished 5th last year. But one stat alone warrants this play: Haas leads Johnson 5-0-0 h2h on Tour this season and 6-0-0 h2h overall. More than enough reason for me!

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Going with.....
Choi 20 1u ew
Ames 42 1u ew
Hensby 66 1u ew

Almost.....
Kuehne, Gamez, Johnson & Haas

 

[Whalers Rule]

Taking a chance on some big hitters

Schwarmkrug 400-1 e.w.
Heinen 40-1 top five
Beem 200-1 e.w
Kuchar 30-1 top 5
Hend 135-1 e.w.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Should be great tourney to wager with wind getting around 20mph last two days and looks to be more of same.
Appears to be some dandy matches out there this week.
Been waiting for 5dimes odds to drop to see what they had on Hensby to place. They did beat Skybet's 14/1 with 15/1 place odds.
In complete agreement with T.U on this one. Thought it amazing they let him go off at similiar odds in Bells South after a prior 2nd place and really surprised they come out with same this week???
Considering he ranks in top 20 in putting-total driving-scoring average and all around, I truely expected the wind to be out of these sails.---and projected wind makes it all the better as noted in final rd of Bell South with 20 mph winds he had low rd of day
(-5) so let it blow
Win or lose got ride him one more time @ these odds
Hensby to place 15/1 @ 5dimes

Ogilvy was another on short list but odds too short.

Stan: Was surprised you didn't give Freddie another chance after getting home @ 50/1 for you last year

 

[Stanley]

I think I used all my luck on Freddie last year when won at 50/1 ... I had only backed him e/w because I couldn't find decent enough place-only odds :shrug:

 

[Whalers Rule]

One more play that I just talked myself into
Mccarron 80-1 e.w (olympic)

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (1 unit ew ? odds 1st 5)

J Rose 50/1 @ SkyBet
Hensby 100/1 @ Sporting Odds
K Na 100/1 @ Sporting Odds
B Pappas 125/1 @ Sporting Odds
J Haas 33/1 @ Victor Chandler
S Ames 50/1 @ Victor Chandler
H Kuehne 80/1 @ Bet365

Also interested in Hend, Baddeley, Sutton and Calcavecchia.

Good Luck!

 

[Another Steve]

Shell Open Plays

Shell Open Plays

Stephen Ames OV/Justin Rose -1.40
Jay Haas WINS HOUSTON OPEN +30.00
Stephen Ames WINS HOUSTON OPEN +35.00

Going w/Ames on outright and Match Up. Match Up has moved to -1.60. Ames should be near the Top on Sunday.

Took Jay because he has been very steady and likes this Place.

Will be back during the weekend for more Plays. Want to keep the mojo going.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:


K.J. Choi(16/1 & 18/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I recall the runs of his best form approaching a zone very few attain.

Briny Baird(50/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Last year it was Robert Gamez that sucked the most money from my wallet in outright endeavors, net of return. This year it is Briny Baird that carries that dubious distinction. This week I almost hit them both equally hard, before regaining my senses and/or losing my nerve.

Aaron Baddeley(75/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ 5dimes
http://www.thegolfchannel.com/core.aspx?page=15101&dv=6413682&select=12665
Maybe he's jumping out of his skin and ready to go this afternoon, and then follows up well with his morning tee time on Friday, and then I'll think I was on to something. (Aside: Stewart Cink was noted as my 7th choice last week, and I went about that deep with my roster this week to land on Aaron Baddeley or Jeff Maggert. If instead I had hauled out my full roster of leans and possibilities, I still wouldn't feel as good as I did last week about any prospect of blanketing the right name, and I was none too keen about it last week.)


MATCHUPS:

Lickliter(+110) over Daly (Tournament) for 1* @ Bet365
- The changes Lickliter has been working on (since before his premature win at Tucson in 2003) continue to show legs. What are the chances Daly is still in the midst of a purple patch, and has maintained the fine tuning since his disappointing Masters to lash his way through what is looking like a wind tossed tournament, rather than choosing to work on his casino gambling along the Mississippi?

Baird(+115) over Leonard (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
- I'm not seeing it, Justin. But then of course, timing is everything, I may well be saying after this wager against his Texas legend.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

FRIDAY:

Lickliter(+162) over Howell/K.Sutherland for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will throw in match play for week--a 72 hole continuation @ Oly
Allenby -105 over Huston currently 1 down.

Allenby great wind player and has hit ball super 1st 2 days (3nd DD & 2nd GIR) but has putted etrociously 77putts in 2 days.
Has over 3 stroke weekend scor adv over Huston so giving up stroke not a concern.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Make that 67 putts in 2days

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding in running e/w outright (top 4)
Ames currently 33/1 @ 365

Ames looks enticing considering he is only one stroke out of 5th,ranks 12th total driving in soaked conditions on long course and ranks 8th in final rd scor ave. Will give him a look.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -4.50pts

Choi 11th
Haas 43rd
Baird mc

Chaotic event with all the disruptions, but none were ever in contention. Choi did finish three shots shy of a place finish, but that never looked like closing that gap.

Matchups - Final Update: 0-3; -7.26pts

Howell/Daly LOST by 5
Haas/Daly LOST by 7
Haas/Johnson LOST by 5

The only good news is that nothing else appealed in the matchups. Could have been quite profitable, but Daly recovered from an opening 76 to hit the cut line on the mark and it was all downhill from there!

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 7-41; -10.85pts
Matchups: 53-50; -11.83pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 28-122; +46.00pts
Matchups: 150-123; +11.47pts