Shell Houston Open

DOGS THAT BARK

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K Sutherland 20/1 to place top 5 @ Skybet

Thought this to be a little out of line considering field. Kevin seems in great form with 3 top 10's and a couple more top 20's in last 6 events.
Course form not to shabby with a top 10 in 2 tries since site moved to Restone in 03.

Only knock is rarily dips down to top 5 tier despite numerous top 10's--but then again 20/1 place but again this field not as strong as most.
 

Stanley

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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Geoff Ogilvy to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Persevering with Ogilvy, for now at least! This is a course where driver comes into play more than virtually any other course on Tour and the big-hitting Australian has found Redstone to his liking in the past two years, finishing in the top-10 both times. As an Australian, he should fare well in the Texas winds and as a Tour winner in 2005, he should be able to convert his chances if he gets any. Either way, he has the talent to win this event so there's always hope!

Rod Pampling to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes, UKBetting and Totalbet
Pampling forms an Australian pairing and after such a strong performance from them last week, there is good reason to expect another winner from that part of the world this week. He is certainly playing well enough to contend again this week having finished 5th in the Masters and 6th in the MCI Heritage last week and while he finished 43rd last year, it is noteworthy that he was the sole 1st round leader, but was blown away by the gusting 40 km/h winds in the 2nd round. Since then, he has won on the PGA Tour and is showing great form so should be less than the 40/1 on offer.

Thomas Levet to finish in the top-ten 8/1 @ Stan James
Concentrating on the PGA Tour this season and after missing his first four cuts and losing in the 1st round of the World Matchplay, he decided to take five weeks off. According to his website, he didn't play golf for the first two weeks and then spent the next three weeks preparing as though it was the start of a new season. On his return, he missed the cut in the BellSouth Classic, but has since finished 13th in the Masters and 6th in the MCI Heritage. Now his confidence is sky-high and although he has been a very streaky player in the past, he is a far better player than he was when last holding a PGA Tour Card in 2003. His 31st-place finish was his best finish on the Tour that season until August so the course clearly suits and he clearly believes that he can do much better this time around.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Hmm May have wasted selection on Sutherland if they get enough rain to soften course.As Stan mention long hitters have substantial edge on the course especially if fairways soften as witnessed by Kuehne and Daly's success here. While usually reserving shorter odd players for in running I don't think it will be advatage this week considering weak field.Don't look for those I faver such as Ames-Calc-Ogilvy and Herron odds to increase much if slightly off pace after 1st rd. So will add a fuller plate than usual on some longer hitters with potential that have been flying below at extremely generous odds and history of being competative and one vet Rodney Dangerfield that never gets respect.

Sabbitini top 10 @ Stan James 10/1
Took some unofficial top 5 also but like top 10 odds correlation better.Quite similiar to Ahn in bush last week.These odds are almost double for top 10 than his top 5 rate of return last year and he would have cashed on this bet last year as he finished 6th in wet conditions.

and a few top 5's at VERY generous odds-that are long--and can play.

Owen 20/1 Cbet
Purdy 40/1 GG
Glover 22/1 Bet Fred
 

Another Steve

Put Pete In
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A lot of tough Matchups ths week. Everyone I like is Playing each other. Taking a shot at a Price with Toms and an Outright on Ames.

David Toms OV/Vijay Singh+1.90
Stephen Ames WINS SHELL HOUSTON+22.00

Good luck, hopefully I can get some better matchups next week.
 

seeker

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1 72-hole play

1 72-hole play

David Toms -125 over Darren Clarke

GL fellow MJers.............


:clap:
 

lostinamerica

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OPENERS:

(A) http://sport.scotsman.com/golf.cfm?id=407112005
Tiger and Coach Hank.
(Edit: Not a bad spot for revisiting my first post of the season on 1/6/05:
"Tiger Woods(4/1) e.w. in U.S. Masters @ Bet365
- - I haven't once doubted Tiger's greatness in 29 years, and I'm not about to start. I'm believing what my eyes and ears are telling me, and sooner rather than later. The landscape has changed and it won't be like it was, but it will be better than "almost" great.")

(B) Augusta National and Harbor Town stand out as quintessential "courses for horses" venues. With the Masters and it's very real line of demarcation on every season now behind us, and with more eclectic venues on the horizon, my first inclination lies in asking who, like Peter Lonard last week, and Tom Lehman in recent weeks, showed real flashes at the start of the year, went into a lull, but are destined to re-emerge with some unfinished business, sooner rather than later . . . Arron Oberholser was a likely play this week, but he's now missing in action.


OUTRIGHTS:

Pat Perez(80/1) e.w. @ Bet365

- - Acting on a tip from John Daly before The Players Championship: "Pat Perez is going to win soon - he's playing too well not to."

Stephen Ames(25/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods

- - Ames got on a roll and was a Top Ten phenom last year, and while something less sustained certainly seems likely next time around, I think it is likely that Ames is a better player now vs. then. Anyway, Ames on view at Harbor Town had that look again, and while I'm afraid it might be Pampling (along with Adam Scott) that is ready to follow Lonard in the winner's enclosure, I'm stubbornly going with Ames as a known quantity.

Mark Calcavecchia(50/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
- - No doubt Calc is making a rare appearance on my card, but he's laid the foundation.

Rich Beem(125/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
- - I recall the greens at Redstone being fairly straightforward in putting contours and pin accessibility, and Beem could benefit from both. We will soon find out if there is anything to his recent flash of form, and I if there is, I think a generally poor record in Texas actually adds an element to his chances this week.


MATCHUPS:


Calcavecchia(+130) over Kelly (Tournament) @ 5dimes

Campbell(+190) over Ames/Howell (Thursday) @ 5dimes


GL
 
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DOGS THAT BARK

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Lots of time wasted this week as they call for chance of rain all week and now looks like none--not going back to drawing board but have some I still fancy just not as well.

Mayfair +125 over Roberts @ 5Dimes
Lewis +100 over Faxon @ 5dimes

Most of these plays against short sticks on one of longer course.

Roberts rarily plays these lengthy courses and id wet would not have been surprised if he pull out. Mayfair ranks 9th in total driving and got some nice odds.

Lewis 6-2 vs Faxon in 05
More important the only person on tour Faxon currently beats in total driving is David Duval.

1st rd play
Calc +125 over Roberts @ Pinn.
Calc -105 over Estes @ 5Dimes
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Prop totals gradings
rd 1
prop-birdies or better
Estes -105 (-1/2) over Roberts win (5-3)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
3rd rd prop
GIRS
Clarke +100 under 13.5 win (11)
 
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lostinamerica

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Brian Davis(80/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Brian seems to be enjoying Houston while tapping into his better attributes. I'll let him carry the banner with my 1500th post. Not surprising I missed the 125/1 early bird special at GolfingGods. Cheers!

GL
 

kegray1

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In Match bet on Maggert at 22-1.
1 stroke off the lead and the hometown people are behind him bigtime.
He wants this one.
I also have him at 66-1 to win from day 1.
Singh will probably prevail though.Loves this course.Won last year.
Won Houston Open 3 years ago as well,but was at different course.
 

Stanley

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FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Ogilvy 62nd
Pampling 18th
Levet 39th

Very poor. All had chances, especially Levet who was 8th after two rounds, and all blew them before the final round had even begun.

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 8-44; +7.51pts
Matchups: 16-15; +3.41pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 36-154; +26.88pts
Matchups: 67-46; +64.40pts
 
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