One early mention - Brooks - past winner here and 5th last year - played 3 good rounds at the Masters and finished 7th last week, I have only seen prices from Hills where he is 80-1, I was only expecting 66-1 so he is my 1st choice
Shell Houston Open
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
Outrights @ Oly all 1/2 unit
Sutton to win 20/1 and to place 5/1*
Hoch to place 8/1*
Mayfair to place 10 1/2*
Maggert to place 12/1*
* denotes anticipated place odds(1/4 win) though not available yet
Tweeked these with driving accurracy at premium as again noted in Stans write up this week.
Had 2 quad gualifiers in Sutton and Hoch
Bumped Mayfair up on odds and current form and Maggert for home cooking being a Texas boy.Brooks,Toms,Sposa,Durant,Frazer and Cook were were right in there but no odds available on most other than field.
Sutton to win 20/1 and to place 5/1*
Hoch to place 8/1*
Mayfair to place 10 1/2*
Maggert to place 12/1*
* denotes anticipated place odds(1/4 win) though not available yet
Tweeked these with driving accurracy at premium as again noted in Stans write up this week.
Had 2 quad gualifiers in Sutton and Hoch
Bumped Mayfair up on odds and current form and Maggert for home cooking being a Texas boy.Brooks,Toms,Sposa,Durant,Frazer and Cook were were right in there but no odds available on most other than field.
Preview & outright plays:
This week it's the home course of Jeff Maggert. He resides at the course and as a youngster [not as long ago as most would think!] he caddied for Scott Simpson in this event. He knows the course more than anyone else and so should be a prime contender to win this event every year. He is the leading money winner in this event after all. Well, maybe not to win the event. He is the only player on Tour that has had the lead four or more times in the same event and not won it. He was at least runner-up in 1994, 1996 and 1998, though in 1991 he shot 80 to fall thirty places.
One particular feature of this event is that it is typically close. There have been nine playoffs in the last fifteen years! And last year's inability of Stadler to win was memorable even when Allenby had found water. Another feature is that Texans, and in particular Fred Couples, Justin Leonard, Phil Blackmar and Mark Brooks, tend to do well here with the move to Bermuda greens; the last two are former winners of this event.
The emphasis is on finding the target rather than length this week. Many of the longer-hitters will not be able to hit drivers all the time because of the penalties that lie further from the tee and with water in play in nine holes - the 'devil's bathtub' snakes around the back nine - there is no excuse for being wayward. The Texas winds will only heighten the emphasis on straight-hitting and will fry the greens so that morning tee times are a big advantage each day.
The three outright selections this week are Vijay Singh, Hal Sutton and Jerry Kelly. Singh may have been very disappointing in the final round last week and doubts do linger about his capacity to lead from the front in PGA Tour events [he does not have the same problem elsewhere!], but it was only his 2nd round over par this year and it was the sort of day in which everyone brought each other down. He still gained a top-4 finish for the 7th time in eight events and have a decent record in this event, finishing 5th on his last visit in 1999. With last week's problem seemingly more mental than technical, he should never be far from the top of the leaderboard in an event a little short of top-class players.
Hal Sutton comes into this event with good finishes at the two 'tight' courses - 3rd at Doral and 5th at Sawgrass - and this course will be much more to his liking than Augusta. He has missed this event just twice in the past twenty years and though he disappointed somewhat to finish 29th last year, he had finished 2nd, 6th and 4th in the three years beforehand. He has yet to win this event, but he should not be too far from that target this week.
Finally, Jerry Kelly sprung to prominence with his performance at the TPC, but he followed that with another strong showing at the BellSouth and comes into this event in great form despite last week's missed cut. He has played this event every year for the past five years and only 3 players (Sutton, Hoch & Maggert) are more under-par at The Woodlands over that time. He still commands a decent price and should be able to secure a top-5 finish.
Outright plays:
Vijay Singh to win 10/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold?
Hal Sutton to win 16/1 e.w. @ Bet247
Jerry Kelly to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey, Victor Chandler or Bet247
Spooky, DTB ... you refer to the important driving accuracy in my write-up before I've even posted it
Saw the price on Sutton myself, but it had fallen to 14/1 before I pulled the trigger
This week it's the home course of Jeff Maggert. He resides at the course and as a youngster [not as long ago as most would think!] he caddied for Scott Simpson in this event. He knows the course more than anyone else and so should be a prime contender to win this event every year. He is the leading money winner in this event after all. Well, maybe not to win the event. He is the only player on Tour that has had the lead four or more times in the same event and not won it. He was at least runner-up in 1994, 1996 and 1998, though in 1991 he shot 80 to fall thirty places.
One particular feature of this event is that it is typically close. There have been nine playoffs in the last fifteen years! And last year's inability of Stadler to win was memorable even when Allenby had found water. Another feature is that Texans, and in particular Fred Couples, Justin Leonard, Phil Blackmar and Mark Brooks, tend to do well here with the move to Bermuda greens; the last two are former winners of this event.
The emphasis is on finding the target rather than length this week. Many of the longer-hitters will not be able to hit drivers all the time because of the penalties that lie further from the tee and with water in play in nine holes - the 'devil's bathtub' snakes around the back nine - there is no excuse for being wayward. The Texas winds will only heighten the emphasis on straight-hitting and will fry the greens so that morning tee times are a big advantage each day.
The three outright selections this week are Vijay Singh, Hal Sutton and Jerry Kelly. Singh may have been very disappointing in the final round last week and doubts do linger about his capacity to lead from the front in PGA Tour events [he does not have the same problem elsewhere!], but it was only his 2nd round over par this year and it was the sort of day in which everyone brought each other down. He still gained a top-4 finish for the 7th time in eight events and have a decent record in this event, finishing 5th on his last visit in 1999. With last week's problem seemingly more mental than technical, he should never be far from the top of the leaderboard in an event a little short of top-class players.
Hal Sutton comes into this event with good finishes at the two 'tight' courses - 3rd at Doral and 5th at Sawgrass - and this course will be much more to his liking than Augusta. He has missed this event just twice in the past twenty years and though he disappointed somewhat to finish 29th last year, he had finished 2nd, 6th and 4th in the three years beforehand. He has yet to win this event, but he should not be too far from that target this week.
Finally, Jerry Kelly sprung to prominence with his performance at the TPC, but he followed that with another strong showing at the BellSouth and comes into this event in great form despite last week's missed cut. He has played this event every year for the past five years and only 3 players (Sutton, Hoch & Maggert) are more under-par at The Woodlands over that time. He still commands a decent price and should be able to secure a top-5 finish.
Outright plays:
Vijay Singh to win 10/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold?
Hal Sutton to win 16/1 e.w. @ Bet247
Jerry Kelly to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey, Victor Chandler or Bet247
Spooky, DTB ... you refer to the important driving accuracy in my write-up before I've even posted it
Stan
Sutton was 20-1 MS (don't know if its still there)
Looks like you should come close to the 3,000 post mark this week - now there is a frightening thought of where your time goes!
Sutton was 20-1 MS (don't know if its still there)
Looks like you should come close to the 3,000 post mark this week - now there is a frightening thought of where your time goes!
Thanks Ian. He was 16/1 this evening minus 7% tax @ MS.
3000 posts ... time sure does fly by when you're capping golf c. 50 weeks of the year
3000 posts ... time sure does fly by when you're capping golf c. 50 weeks of the year
Stanley,DTB or Ian, as usual
What do you think of these plays? (I've already bet them because of the lines but just need a little cheer up!)
Duval over cink -145
H.Sutton over dimarco -110
Jerry Kelly over allenby at even
D.Toms over appleby at -110
Thanks!
Duval over cink -145
H.Sutton over dimarco -110
Jerry Kelly over allenby at even
D.Toms over appleby at -110
Thanks!
Stan...
Where did you find Sutton -110 over Dimarco? I got it early at -135 at wsex.com and now it's up to -150...
I assure you that it WAS NOT my play that pushed the line up
Where did you find Sutton -110 over Dimarco? I got it early at -135 at wsex.com and now it's up to -150...
I assure you that it WAS NOT my play that pushed the line up
Stan...Lets hope that simonbold.com has the right line....Sutton 16-1 Dimarco 40-1
Win or lose ya gotta like the value of laying -110 with a 16-1 vs a 40-1
Good Luck to all this week!!
Win or lose ya gotta like the value of laying -110 with a 16-1 vs a 40-1
Good Luck to all this week!!
72-hole plays:
Bob May to beat Fulton Allem -118 @ Easybets [2 units]
May seems to be recovering from his wrist injury in decent fashion - he has finished 43rd and 21st in the last two weeks, while admitting that he would not have returned to the course so soon had it not been the Masters. He is much the better player as Allem's 77-91 figures at the 1998 Houston Open testify
David Duval to beat Stewart Cink -160 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]
A winner of this event in 1998 and with an excellent record on this course overall, Duval is perfectly poised to follow up his Masters revival. The extra chalk is worth laying against a player who has never played this course and has no consistency, having a good week/bad week spell at the moment and last week's 10th place finish was a good week
Hal Sutton to beat Stewart Cink -115 @ WSEX [2 units]
This one is just as good. The player with the best aggregate under-par total around this course against a course novice. This line has already moved and will continue to do so until Thursday, though Simon Bold will probably continue to offer -111 but with a tie at 16/1
Justin Leonard to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Intertops
On current form, this should be an ugly matchup, but Leonard has had two top-20 finishes in his last three appearances here and does play better in the South. For his part, although Franco finished 11th last year, he ranks 156th in driving accuracy this year and looks set to continue to struggle
Loren Roberts to beat Shigeki Maruyama -130 @ Grand Central
Another matchup featuring players out of form, but again the play is with the player with decent course form and against a wild driver. Roberts has finished 3rd and 5th in the last two years here and will be much more likely to keep the ball in play than Maruyama who currently ranks 160th in driving accuracy
Nope Simon, it wasn't me. Being credited with writing a lot of things this week
Bob May to beat Fulton Allem -118 @ Easybets [2 units]
May seems to be recovering from his wrist injury in decent fashion - he has finished 43rd and 21st in the last two weeks, while admitting that he would not have returned to the course so soon had it not been the Masters. He is much the better player as Allem's 77-91 figures at the 1998 Houston Open testify
David Duval to beat Stewart Cink -160 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]
A winner of this event in 1998 and with an excellent record on this course overall, Duval is perfectly poised to follow up his Masters revival. The extra chalk is worth laying against a player who has never played this course and has no consistency, having a good week/bad week spell at the moment and last week's 10th place finish was a good week
Hal Sutton to beat Stewart Cink -115 @ WSEX [2 units]
This one is just as good. The player with the best aggregate under-par total around this course against a course novice. This line has already moved and will continue to do so until Thursday, though Simon Bold will probably continue to offer -111 but with a tie at 16/1
Justin Leonard to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Intertops
On current form, this should be an ugly matchup, but Leonard has had two top-20 finishes in his last three appearances here and does play better in the South. For his part, although Franco finished 11th last year, he ranks 156th in driving accuracy this year and looks set to continue to struggle
Loren Roberts to beat Shigeki Maruyama -130 @ Grand Central
Another matchup featuring players out of form, but again the play is with the player with decent course form and against a wild driver. Roberts has finished 3rd and 5th in the last two years here and will be much more likely to keep the ball in play than Maruyama who currently ranks 160th in driving accuracy
Nope Simon, it wasn't me. Being credited with writing a lot of things this week
Outright pick
S Ames at 100/1 hills / tote
Euro play
G owen at 50/1 tote
and a transatlatic double at 5150/1 on the two at the tote.
S Ames at 100/1 hills / tote
Euro play
G owen at 50/1 tote
and a transatlatic double at 5150/1 on the two at the tote.
adding 72 holes @ 5 Dimes
Brooks +105 over Couples
Frazar +102 over Lickliter
Stan Was spooky. I am pre-conditioned. Each week I spend hours hunting for bits and pieces only to find most included in your preview.Each week I am tempted to forego the reseach and wait for your preview but do occasionally find a nugget not included so keep plugging
1837 :I love your Sutton Dimarco match.
Brooks +105 over Couples
Frazar +102 over Lickliter
Stan Was spooky. I am pre-conditioned. Each week I spend hours hunting for bits and pieces only to find most included in your preview.Each week I am tempted to forego the reseach and wait for your preview but do occasionally find a nugget not included so keep plugging
1837 :I love your Sutton Dimarco match.
Sportsbook were doing props on finishing positions and winning totals up until the Masters but seem to have stopped doing them, does anyone know of any other books that do these types of bets?
Ian Surrey has finishing positions for Spanish Open and Shell
3balls @ Sportingbet 1/2 unit each and combo
Durant 11/8-Maggert 13/8-May 15/8-Mayfair 6/4
3balls @ Sportingbet 1/2 unit each and combo
Durant 11/8-Maggert 13/8-May 15/8-Mayfair 6/4
forgot: combo returns $438 for $10 wager
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Stopped Oly to see if official place odds had released,they haven't,however noted odds on Sutton and Mayfair have had significant change and will be revising place wagers when they are released. Will wait till they are posted from here on out to avoid confusion.Sorry,however adjustments will be minor.
[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 04-18-2001).]
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Stopped Oly to see if official place odds had released,they haven't,however noted odds on Sutton and Mayfair have had significant change and will be revising place wagers when they are released. Will wait till they are posted from here on out to avoid confusion.Sorry,however adjustments will be minor.
[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 04-18-2001).]
