Shell Houston Open

[lostinamerica]

Link to Houston Chronicle newspaper,
including some perspectives on Redstone Golf Club:

http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/sports/golf/index.html

GL

 

[kjls04202]

Thanks LIA - most helpful.

 

[kjls04202]

Peter Jacobsen, who built or designed the course has this to say about this week,

"We built Redstone anticipating the distances guys can hit the ball and how much farther they'll hit it in the coming years," he said. "You don't see guys hit 4- or 5-irons into greens anymore -- unless it's their second shot on a par 5. We have a lot of strong par 4s, but the fairways are flat and the greens are at fairway grade with openings to allow for different shots and for recoveries."

Jacobsen said a player's total game will be tested with emphasis on true shot-making, that is, the ability to shape shots into the small greens and escape from trouble. Jacobsen calls the driver-wedge game common to many golf tournaments, "driving range golf."

They'll need more than that this week.

 

[milpalm]

Baddeley 69/1
Baddeley top 10 5/1
Campbell 44/1
Campbell top 10 3/1

Found a couple I liked at Nordicbet. Badds was 6th in his last start and is generally 50/1. Campbell was slightly disappointing last week but can perhaps mount a challenge in his home state.

Justin Leonard doesn't merit selection based on last week's performance but he has a fabulous record in Texas events. Got 33/1 with Chandler earlier.

 

[steved]

agree with you on Campbell, Milpalm... got 40/1 (Ladbrokes, this morning anyway, now 20/1!!)..Texas and think that new course will bring some of the more experienced players back to him, as they will all be inexperienced on this course...

 

[bettingmad]

Jay Haas 100/1 Skybet

I recently put Bob Tway up on the site and described him as being "long in the tooth"....Haas makes him look young! However the advancing years did not stop Tway from being placed the week I tipped him and haven't stopped Haas from producing some impressive results this year. He took runner-up spots behind Weir (Bob Hope), Davis Love (Players Championship) and made the last 8 in the World Matchplay. Admittedly he has missed his last 2 cuts but still lies 6th in the money list and is a previous winner of this event.

 

[Clive]

An event that leaves me completely underwhelmed, I'm afraid.
Pissing in the dark!

Have had a small bet on Baddeley at 66/1, but will look forward to next year when there's a little more to go on!

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

David Toms to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
Not the longest of players, but has shown glimpses of his 2001 form in the past month to finish 2nd in the WGC Match Play and 8th in the Masters. With events in Texas largely falling to Texan course specialists, his record in this State is encouraging. Apart from a very consistent record in Texas events, he has finished in the top-4 three times in his last four starts in the Lone Star State.

Jerry Kelly to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Kelly record in this region is nowhere near as impressive, but in what looks like an open event, this is a large price for a two-time winner in 2002. He has five top-10 finishes from ten starts this year and is simply overpriced.

Fred Couples to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and BlueSq
Was really looking for place-only terms for Freddie, but with a best of 8/1 for 5 places, then there is little wasted in taking the each-way at these odds instead. He has been in rejuvenated form in the last two months with four top-15 finishes in his last five events and in the event that he finished outside the top-15, the Masters, he was well-placed after 54 holes. His record in Texas is encouraging as well - he finished 2nd in the Texas Open last year and has been 3rd in this event on two occasions. He did go to college in Houston, though that was a long time ago!

 

[kjls04202]

Big on Baddeley also this week, 66/1 with Power.
Mike Heinen is interesting at a big price. Mike who ?

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Opposing Baddeley yet again who hasn't played competitively for a month and had his return delayed last week by spraining his ankle. But this is not an injury play, Calc leads Baddeley 4-0-0 h2h in the last three months and with Baddeley having missed the cut in both his Texan events to date, I don't see a big week from the young Australian.

David Toms to beat Chad Campbell -120 @ Bet365
Siding with Toms again who tends to play better in the Southern States against Campbell who has been more consistent in the past few months, but whose Texan form is not particularly good. He did win the 2001 Permian Basin Open on the Buy.com Tour, but little else even this is his home State. Should finish top-30 yet again, but I think it will be Toms that will be in contention on Sunday.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

one early outright to place only @ skybet
J.L Lewis @ 40/1

In a tourney with no course form thought I'd look for one longshot before the cut who is Texas resident,is in top 50 in total driving-driving distance and GIR's and no stranger to finishing in top 5(3 top 5's last year including Texas Open.
This was the man with the credentials of a real sleeper at "extremely" generous odds.(25/1 @ 5dimes)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

early 72 holes
Campbell-111 vs Scott @ SB
Home cookin. Oddsmaker finally caught up to this one.Will look at in outrights at cut as too low currently.If you think this season is fluke consider winning 3 buy.com events in 2001 and (13) hooters events in career. He's a player!

Choi -120 vs Sutton@ 365
Getting some value here with Suttons 3rd place showing last week or you'd be looking @ about -170 .

Sutherland +111 over Immelman@ Boyles
Don't know how long or if this line is corrected later.As the way they have it listed they are going to have to pay on David or Kevin. Both can be an asset, as weak link David ranks 17th in driving distance,and Immelman is finding step up to pga is not that easy being cut in 2 out of 3 events.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding another outright to place @ Skybet
Herron 14/1
No stranger to top 5's this year with 3 in 10 events.No one in field has more--also ranks top 10 in all around rankings.
Current form was concern but closer observation 2 of his top 5's followed a 56th and 48th. Will give a shot at these odds.

 

[lostinamerica]

A 5:05 a.m. flight on Thursday starts a twelve day vacation to Arizona; no way to tell now how much time and effort the capping and the hard core viewing will receive when my routine will be anything but routine. Nothing much different for this week, as I made the time and had some fun getting up to speed with some research on some European Tour regulars (despite the extra guesswork involved in the new venue this week), and stuck close to my first choices all the way around. On the whole, I decided to be circumspect in my plays to start this week.

OUTRIGHTS:

Jeff Maggert(50/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Probably declaring his chances as DOA with a nod to such an obvious choice, but good things may be happening if he isn't struggling to make the cut . . . I had my eye on him all week at the Masters off his strong performance at The Players . . . In situations that seem to parallel this week in some regards, it looks like a spotty record overall, but with some success . . . There is always a hump too large that impedes his ability to even take it to the final holes, but he earned kudos for displaying a heaping helping of grit at Augusta . . . Debuting a purported shotmaker's venue before a proud home crowd seems worthy of an outright wager.

David Toms(20/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Solid in Texas, some success after a major, trending close to some of his better efforts, and a course that may suit, but the kicker is hoping to detect the traces of a player's stake in the event that can propel his play to a top shelf performance, which in Toms' case is being so long overdue.

Steve Flesch(66/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ 5dimes
Indecision reigns in deciding between Flesch, K.J. Choi(50/1), Brandt Jobe(100/1), or Jerry Kelly(50/1), and I need to move on to other things. Siding with Flesch as a posted play , I guess because he fits the mold of "detecting a little this or that" that I don't think I usually see from a player for whom my usual first instinct is to look to oppose him. That can't make any sense, but I don't have time to clean it up.


MATCHUPS:

Maggert(-115) over Herron (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic

Kelly(+333) over Huston/Ames/Baird/Austin (Tournament) for 0.60* @ Bet365

GL

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1 unit):

K.J. Choi to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ Ladbrokes
Will also add Choi to oppose Baddeley. The Korean is coming off a top-15 finish in the Masters and has been very solid all year long. Twice a winner on Tour last year, he is the more likely title contender this week.

Jerry Kelly to beat Aaron Baddeley -137 @ Boyle
Also adding one of the outright selections against Baddeley who is returning from injury. Kelly was also a two-time winner last year and it is the proven winners who have been ruling the roost in 2003 rather than the Tour maidens.

Fred Funk to beat Hal Sutton -115 @ Intertops (-111 @ BetandWin but ties lose)
Looking to oppose Sutton as well this week as he surprised many that he was in contention for so long last week. He was very unlucky that his ball plugged in the bunker on the last hole and it cost him a place in the playoff, but I can't see him being so close this week and there could be a letdown from missing out in that way. It was the first time in two years that he had finished in the top-10 of an event, but age has not caught up with Funk quite so fast. He should prevail in the match of former Houston Open champions.

John Huston to beat Hal Sutton -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Bermuda greens typical mean support for Huston and his record in Texas is further proof. He is regularly competitive and that is not something that can be said for Sutton. Will definitely side with the younger man at these odds.

1st round plays (1 unit):

Carlos Franco to beat Briny Baird -105 @ Sirbet and Carib
Tom Pernice to beat Briny Baird -110 @ Five Dimes and Moneyplays
Fred Funk to beat Justin Leonard +120 @ Five Dimes

 

[sports student]

1st round 5 dimes

Toms -107 over Peoples/Brooks
Kelly +132 over Appleby/Daly
C Campbell even over Haas/MaGinnis

 

[Stanley]

1st round update: 2-1-0; +1.15 units

Franco/Baird LOST by 6
Pernice/Baird WON by 1
Funk/Leonard WON by 3

2nd round plays (1 unit):

Jose Coceres to beat David Berganio -102 @ Five Dimes
Alex Cejka to beat John Daly -117 @ Five Dimes
Tim Herron to beat Trevor Immelman -115 @ Sirbet
Duffy Waldorf to beat Trevor Immelman -117 @ Five Dimes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

at the cut 2-0
Campbell/Scott win
Choi/Sutton win
pending
the Sutherlands/Immelman 1up

Outrights Both Herron and Lewis cut

Horrendous outrights especially considering 3rd choice of Choi whom I about also went on.
Appears Oly has revamped there method of lines after the cut on outrights as all contenders lines severly cut for 2nd week in row and will pass again.

3rd rd
Haas +100 over Kuehne @ 365 (ties lose)
Will take consistency over length,however if stats were right on Kuehne 2nd rd,8 birdies in hitting only 29% of fairways is concern.Maybe he'll find a few trees or water today.

Forsman -120 over Dawson @ 5dimes
Again will take consistency and Forsman ranking 12th on tour on pars 4's added plus on this track.

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 1-3-0; -2.49 units

Coceres/Berganio WON by 2
Cejka/Daly LOST by 1
Herron/Immelman LOST by 3
Waldorf/Immelman LOST by 6

Mid-point update:

Calcavecchia/Baddeley WON (Baddeley withdrew after the 1st round)
Toms/Campbell Leads by 4
Choi/Baddeley WON
Kelly/Baddeley WON
Funk/Sutton WON by 10
Huston/Sutton LOST by 4

Toms 7th
Kelly 19th
Couples 1st

Promising position at the cut with only one matchup remaining and all but one victorious and all three outrights in the hunt. Kelly had been in the top-5 until dropping four late shots, but should get a return from at least one of these from this position.


3rd round plays (1 unit):

Woody Austin to beat Geoff Ogilvy -108 @ Five Dimes
Olin Browne to beat Ian Leggatt -122 @ Five Dimes
David Toms to beat Vijay Singh +115 @ Carib (-108 @ Five Dimes)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

3rd rd 1-1
Hass/Kuehne win
Forseman/Dawson loss

4th rd
Not much to my liking but will take shoot at Daly here.
Cejka -115 over Daly@5dimes

Daly 4th rd scoring ave dismal making it there on 3 occasions this year and firing 75-79-80 >got to give this one a look.