Tommy Fleetwood 30/1 - 2nd on this track last year at the Volvo China Open and needs a result this week to get into the OWGR top 64 ahead of the WGC Match Play cut-off point.
GL All
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Shenzhen International
- Thread starter PaulW
- Start date
Round 1 play (4pts unless stated):
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Emiliano Grillo +100 @ 5Dimes
Two players in good form, but Cabrera-Bello has a good record in China (made the cut in his last 10 events in this country) and particularly on this course: he finished in the top-10 in the 2014 China Open here. There should be value at plus-odds.
Gregory Havret to beat Darren Fichardt -106 @ Pinnacle
A course advantage in this matchup as well - Havret finished 40th here in the 2014 China Open whereas Fichardt is making his course debut. And in similar fashion to the first matchup, Havret has a much better record in China than his opponent: he has finished 40th or better in all seven previous events here, including two top-10 finishes, but Fichardt is yet to record a top-10 finish in China.
Julien Quesne to beat Justin Pieters -115 @ 5Dimes [2pts]
And in this matchup. Quesne finished in the top-20 here last year and has a good record in China; Pieters has yet to play a Tour event in China, let alone on this course.
Alvaro Quiros to beat Alejandro Canizares +105 @ SkyBet [2pts]
And now a fourth matchup with a very similar angle. Quiros finished 3rd on this course last year, whereas Canizares has both a very poor record on this course - he shot 76-75 last year to miss the cut by seven shots - and in China in general - he has yet to finish in the top-20 in seven previous Tour events in this country.
[unofficial rd1 system play: Molinari tb Stal -110]
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Emiliano Grillo +100 @ 5Dimes
Two players in good form, but Cabrera-Bello has a good record in China (made the cut in his last 10 events in this country) and particularly on this course: he finished in the top-10 in the 2014 China Open here. There should be value at plus-odds.
Gregory Havret to beat Darren Fichardt -106 @ Pinnacle
A course advantage in this matchup as well - Havret finished 40th here in the 2014 China Open whereas Fichardt is making his course debut. And in similar fashion to the first matchup, Havret has a much better record in China than his opponent: he has finished 40th or better in all seven previous events here, including two top-10 finishes, but Fichardt is yet to record a top-10 finish in China.
Julien Quesne to beat Justin Pieters -115 @ 5Dimes [2pts]
And in this matchup. Quesne finished in the top-20 here last year and has a good record in China; Pieters has yet to play a Tour event in China, let alone on this course.
Alvaro Quiros to beat Alejandro Canizares +105 @ SkyBet [2pts]
And now a fourth matchup with a very similar angle. Quiros finished 3rd on this course last year, whereas Canizares has both a very poor record on this course - he shot 76-75 last year to miss the cut by seven shots - and in China in general - he has yet to finish in the top-20 in seven previous Tour events in this country.
[unofficial rd1 system play: Molinari tb Stal -110]
Chris Wood(50/1) e.w.
Niclas Fasth(600/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(40/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(30/1) e.w.
Eddie Pepperell(66/1) e.w.
GL
Niclas Fasth(600/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(40/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(30/1) e.w.
Eddie Pepperell(66/1) e.w.
GL
Round 2 plays (2pts unless stated):
Anthony Wall to beat Peter Uihlein +100 @ 5Dimes [4pts]
Opposing Uihlein who lies second after rd1 and the reasons for expecting an inconsistent week can be summarised with his following post-round quote: "I played Thailand, and had to withdraw with food poisoning, then played one in Puerto Rico, and then I had a wrist injury and had to take some time off. Then I switched coaches, so I?ve had a strange six weeks or so. I feel like I did a lot of things really, really well and I felt like I did some of my old habits and hit a couple squirrelers, but I'm pleased with five under, for sure."
Romain Wattel to beat Alexander Levy -120 @ Paddy Power
Levy won the 2014 China Open on this course, but he has been in poor form recently, missing his last two cuts and is already a couple of shots behind Wattel whose recent form has been very good - 7th in the Indian Open, 2nd last time out in the Trophee Hassan II.
Byeong-Hun An to beat Morten Orum Madsen -120 @ Paddy Power
Backing An who has had a very impressive season since graduating from the Challenge Tour - he is 8-for-8 in cuts made and sits 7th in the Tour rankings for Stroke Average this season. These look good odds to back a player already in 2nd place, in very good form and with a lot of experience of playing in Asia.
Richie Ramsay to beat Ross Fisher -105 @ 5Dimes
Fisher missed the cut last time out in Morocco whereas Ramsay won the Trophee Hassan II that week. On this course last year, Fisher missed the cut after 36 holes whereas Ramsay was inside the top-5 and eight shots ahead of the Englishman at the time. Fisher did shoot the lower rd1 score today, but Ramsay looks the more likely player to contend this week and should make amends in rd2.
Anthony Wall to beat Peter Uihlein +100 @ 5Dimes [4pts]
Opposing Uihlein who lies second after rd1 and the reasons for expecting an inconsistent week can be summarised with his following post-round quote: "I played Thailand, and had to withdraw with food poisoning, then played one in Puerto Rico, and then I had a wrist injury and had to take some time off. Then I switched coaches, so I?ve had a strange six weeks or so. I feel like I did a lot of things really, really well and I felt like I did some of my old habits and hit a couple squirrelers, but I'm pleased with five under, for sure."
Romain Wattel to beat Alexander Levy -120 @ Paddy Power
Levy won the 2014 China Open on this course, but he has been in poor form recently, missing his last two cuts and is already a couple of shots behind Wattel whose recent form has been very good - 7th in the Indian Open, 2nd last time out in the Trophee Hassan II.
Byeong-Hun An to beat Morten Orum Madsen -120 @ Paddy Power
Backing An who has had a very impressive season since graduating from the Challenge Tour - he is 8-for-8 in cuts made and sits 7th in the Tour rankings for Stroke Average this season. These look good odds to back a player already in 2nd place, in very good form and with a lot of experience of playing in Asia.
Richie Ramsay to beat Ross Fisher -105 @ 5Dimes
Fisher missed the cut last time out in Morocco whereas Ramsay won the Trophee Hassan II that week. On this course last year, Fisher missed the cut after 36 holes whereas Ramsay was inside the top-5 and eight shots ahead of the Englishman at the time. Fisher did shoot the lower rd1 score today, but Ramsay looks the more likely player to contend this week and should make amends in rd2.
Round 3 plays (2pts unless stated):
Pablo Larrazabal to beat Alexander Levy +100 @ Paddy Power [4pts]
Opposing Levy again on the basis of his form. Larrazabal has finished ahead of Levy in five of their last six common events and finished 3rd last time out in the Trophee Hassan II, so should be the favourite in this matchup.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat to beat Peter Uihlein -118 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Top-10 in two of his last three starts, this is another matchup in which the in-form player is backed. By contrast, Uihlein is wd-mc in his last two starts. Aphibarnrat leads this matchup 6-2-0 h2h over the last 12 months so should be a stronger favourite this matchup.
Garth Mulroy to beat Renato Paratore +105 @ ToteSport [also available @ 5Dimes]
A similar angle in this Moving Day matchup. Paratore had missed his last three cuts prior to this week and is 0-3-0 h2h against Multoy since the start of last month. As such, I'm rather surprised to see these odds.
Emiliano Grillo to beat Darren Fichardt -159 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Much shorter odds in this matchup, though. Both players in 3rd place, but whereas Grillo is ranked 3rd in greens in regulation, Fichardt is 47th and so has relied on his short game to keep him in contention. Grillo has proven himself in this position recently - he was 3rd after 36 holes in the Open de Argentina in December and won the event by six shots; he was 3rd after 36 holes in the Puerto Rico Open last month on the PGA Tour and only lost out in a playoff. He is worth backing even at these odds.
Pablo Larrazabal to beat Alexander Levy +100 @ Paddy Power [4pts]
Opposing Levy again on the basis of his form. Larrazabal has finished ahead of Levy in five of their last six common events and finished 3rd last time out in the Trophee Hassan II, so should be the favourite in this matchup.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat to beat Peter Uihlein -118 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Top-10 in two of his last three starts, this is another matchup in which the in-form player is backed. By contrast, Uihlein is wd-mc in his last two starts. Aphibarnrat leads this matchup 6-2-0 h2h over the last 12 months so should be a stronger favourite this matchup.
Garth Mulroy to beat Renato Paratore +105 @ ToteSport [also available @ 5Dimes]
A similar angle in this Moving Day matchup. Paratore had missed his last three cuts prior to this week and is 0-3-0 h2h against Multoy since the start of last month. As such, I'm rather surprised to see these odds.
Emiliano Grillo to beat Darren Fichardt -159 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Much shorter odds in this matchup, though. Both players in 3rd place, but whereas Grillo is ranked 3rd in greens in regulation, Fichardt is 47th and so has relied on his short game to keep him in contention. Grillo has proven himself in this position recently - he was 3rd after 36 holes in the Open de Argentina in December and won the event by six shots; he was 3rd after 36 holes in the Puerto Rico Open last month on the PGA Tour and only lost out in a playoff. He is worth backing even at these odds.
