Shooting for 70 (Super 12 final play)

[Anders]

Yup, it's the last one of the season. So here goes...

Super 12:

Season to date: 27-12 (69.23%)

Grand Final: ACT Brumbies v Sharks, Bruce Stadium, Canberra
Brumbies -9.5

The final (and final play) of the Super 12 rugby season sees last year's beaten finalist and pre-season title favourites up against the 2000 wooden-spooners. Can new coach Rudolf Straeuli complete a fairytale story and win the crown this year? Who cares!? All we want to know is who will cover.
The Brumbies appear likely to go into tomorrow nite's final without two key figures. Stirling Mortlock is definitely out long-term with a shoulder injury while Owen Finnegan will discover later today if his appeal against a five-game suspension is overturned. I think it's unlikely and will write this preview as such, but update if he finds a legal loophole which allows a man to tapdance on another player's head. Let's deal with those absences one by one. Centre Mortlock shouldbe replaced by James Holbeck; a capable player who lacks Mortlock's running power but one well in tune with the Brumbies pattern of play. But Mortlock is also the first-choice goalkicker. He's well-short of being the best in the Super 12 and Andrew Walker actually kicked better than Mortlock when he went off injured last weekend in the semi. Yet those who have followed Walker since his NRL career with Sydney City know he runs horribly hot and cold, and the fact the hosts don't have their first-choice kicker available for the final is a minus. Finnegan is a huge piece in the Brumbies jigsaw with his powerful running off inside passes from Larkham and Gregan - he sets a big platform for that quick ruck ball and is a regular tryscorer. His replacement, another ex-NRL player in Peter Ryan, is more mobile but not as punishing. There are other injury worries for the Brumbies - anyone see where my play is heading yet

- with hooker Jeremy Paul and lock Justin Harrison with recent niggles while I believe No8 Jim Williams will play but carry a significant rib cartilage injury that the Sharks will target at every tackle with their huge pack.
The hosts still have many potential gamewinners in Gregan, Larkham, Walker, Joe Roff, Graeme Bond and David Giffin. They have a huge advantage in playing Sat night at their home venue of chilly Bruce Stadium - probably be -1 celsius come gametime. And they will be hellbent to avoid losing their third successive S12 final.
The Sharks are likely to try and repeat their semifinal effort when they soaked up plenty of pressure from the Cats to win going away. They will have to, but have the gameplan and players to pressure the Brumbies like the Reds did for the opening 25 minutes of the other semi. This time, the visitors will need to score more points than the two penalties than the Reds got when the Brumbies were notably frustrated (illuminated best when Rod Kafer kicked a most un-Brumbie like "bomb" instead of rotating possession). While the Sharks aren't known as a flair team, they have plenty of firepower out wide in the blistering pace of Stefan Terblanche, Deon Kayser and the under-rated Justin Swart, a very complete winger. They are often lethal from broken play and do like to chance their arm thru tricks like Butch James' chip-kicks. To compete, they will need to tackle relentlessly among their forwards and inside backs. They have the personnel - James and Trevor Halstead are inside backs you wouldn't run into on choice normally while Mark Andrews and John Smit are world-class forwards. The battle for the loose ball will see superb Brumbies openside flyer George Smith leading the charge, but the visitors will endeavour to get both Warren Britz and Christo van Rensburg to the breakdown at pace.
I believe there are enough factors operating here in favour of a "value-based" play on the Sharks getting a good points start.
PLAY SHARKS +9.5

Will take the opportunity here to say a huge thank you to everyone whose : a) given me feedback, b) given me chit

, c) given me praise, d) given me confidence, and e) given me a fantastic time in playing and winning in the Super 12.
Hope you've all had as much fun as I have in endeavouring to make Madjacks what it undeniably is - the best sports gaming site in this damn wee universe

I remain...
Your Kiwi mate
Anders

GLTA

 

[proline]

Anders win or lose I tip my hat to you. A season as you have enjoyed is one for the ages.
My North American buddies laugh when I tell them I am playing NRL and Super 12 games BUT as that oft overused phrase goes
"Show me the $$$$$."

 

[Fred]

Originally posted by proline:
Anders win or lose I tip my hat to you. A season as you have enjoyed is one for the ages."

ditto

congatulations!

 

[AussieVamp2]

direcbet has +10.5, and at 10/11 which is to be encouraged

 

[1837]

Thanks again Anders for sharing your analysis with us all season long! Even if you thought you were all alone at the beginning of your post there were always people reading you! Now you are known by so many of us! Great job my friend!

 

[Cartman88]

Anders,

Great tipping throughout the year on the Super 12

Pity there are no NZ teams to cheer for in the final

Hoping the AFL can make us some cash in the meantime

 

[AussieVamp2]

proline, yeah

let them keep losing their money on the NBA

 

[proline]

The NBA is the WWF of pro sports.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Pretty much.

But a lot duller than that, I think

 

[proline]

No women and no action.
Who wants to see 8 players off the ball watch 2 guys go one on one.
For next year I need to find a way to watch all those Down Under games.

 

[djv]

I had fun just watching and learning about a new sport. I new of it but did not follow it at all. It was interesting. Even took a couple of plays and was rewarded.

And your right this site is a lot of fun. And its great talking to folks from all over the world.

 

[proline]

Is anyone watching the final?
2 questions.
Is the game as tight as the halftime score indicates and is the weather affecting the play?

 

[proline]

Well as close as the first half may have been, the Brumbies kicked some arse in the second half.
Anders, do you think the three missed goals by the Sharks in the 1st half hurt their momentum?
Once again, a great year.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Anders, great season! 27-13 works.

You "down under" guys really helped me out.

Thx and best wishes to you all.

 

[Cartman88]

Anders,

Well done on a great Super 12 season.

Must congratulate the ACT Brumbies on their victory. They really deserved to win the comp after dominating for the past 2 seasons.

They easily won their semi-final and final to leave no doubt they were the best team.

 

[Anders]

Brumbies 36 Sharks 6

Was going to put a

next to the scoreline but I can't - the Brumbies were deserved winners and I'll settle for the season I had anyday

Proline - sorry I didn't get back to you earlier. The first half was remarkably similar to the semifinal and panned out almost perfectly to the way I had called the game. The Sharks were tidy at set-pieces, got plenty of ball and physically terrorised the Brumbies. They smashed them in defence and then did the same on attack, just running both big forwards and backs at them constantly. Two factors cost us any chance of covering - the Brumbies outstanding defence and the piss-poor goalkickng of first-five Butch James. He kicked two from five in the first spell; all from positions a quality goalkicker would have gobbled up - after missing the first 2 I was astounded at the tactical blunder they made by not switching to the capable left-footed winger Justin Swart. Andrew Walker - who went on to kick 8 from 8

obviously decided to run hot and not cold! - kicked 2 from 2 and instead of being up by approx 9-14 pts at the break, it was even and the game was virtually decided. The Brumbies were fantastic in the 2nd half and deserved winners of the Super 12.
And that's the end of what will always be a memorable season for me.
I've been honoured and thrilled to be taken on as Madjacks rugby tipster; have truly enjoyed developing a friendship with a host of great guys from around the world and look forward to that continuing for a long time.
The good news is I will continue to cap NRL and AFL to the best of my ability and there's still lots of international rugby to come - Lions tour, Tri-Nations etc, then the NZ NPC - and I will seek to find value plays wherever possible throughout the season.

So....
Season record for 2001 Super 12: 27-13 (67.5%)

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 05-26-2001).]