ShopRite LPGA Classic

[Stanley]

Outright play (total stake: 1pt)

Juli Inkster to win 18/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Adding an early play as these odds will surely not be beaten. Inkster is a former double-winner of this event back in 1986 and 1988 at a time when the event was played on this course until 1987, but it is her form when the event returned to the Marriott Seaview Resort in 1998 that is really of note. In those eight years, she has seven top-4 finishes! And in her year of failure (2001), she still finished 17th. She has already won this season (Safeway International) against both Annika Sorenstam and Loren Ochoa and has five top-5 finishes in her last seven starts. So even if Annika does rediscover her form this week and Ochoa plays well on her course debut, all the stats point to at least a place return on Inkster.

Will post more plays later in the week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will have to go with rare e/w myself on this one--
Inkster 14/1 without Webb-Ochoa or Sorenstam @ GG

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I better revise that to 13/1--forgot about Euro decimals--14.00=13/1

Outright Without A.Sorenstam, L.Ochoa and K.Webb - Each Way 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 - Bet until: June 02, 2006 12:15 PM
INKSTER, Juli @14.00

 

[Stanley]

Further outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Cristie Kerr to win 14/1 e.w. @ available generally
Siding with two more players who are certainly capable of winning in this company. Kerr and Inkster are two of only four players that average less than 70 this season and that consistency has resulted in wins for both players. In Kerr's case it was the Franklin American Mortgage Championship last month, which she followed with a 4th place finish the following week in her last outing. In fact, that event was the first time in her last four events that she had not held the lead at the end of at least one day during the tournament, though she did come close: she was in 2nd place after the 2nd and 3rd rounds. And given that she won this event two years on this course, she really should be on top of the leaderboard during this event once again.

Paula Creamer to win 25/1 e.w. @ BetFred and BetDirect
Unusually high odds for a player like Creamer, so it is a sign of her disappointing season that these odds are on offer and have remained so all week. But her performances in her last three events have been more encouraging - 3rd, 4th and 6th - and in the last of those, she was playing as defending champion for the first time and admitted to being very nervous. Now she returns to a course on which she finished 2nd in only her 5th start on the LPGA Tour in 2004, so there really should be value at 25/1 this week.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (2pts unless stated):

Stacy Prammanasudh to beat Laura Diaz -108 @ Centrebet
Backing the very consistent Prammanasudh in this matchup. Diaz did win this head-to-head last week, but that was on a course on which she has a fabulous record, and the other occasion that she finished ahead of Prammanasudh in the last nine month was at the Reunion Golf Club and that was by a single shot. So while she did finish 5th last week, I can't imagine her bringing too much confidence with her into this week from the way that she played on the back nine on Sunday.
(also available at Expekt)

Stacy Prammansudh to beat Se Ri Pak -136 @ Pinnacle [6pts]
The only question here is whether Pak is back or not. She recorded a top-10 finish in the Ginn Clubs & Resorts Open and has already amassed more winnings this season than in the whole of last year, but her best finish this year other than that top-10 has been 25th. When she did finish 9th at the Reunion Golf Club, she beat Prammanasudh, but she has finished behind her opponent in their six other common events this year and it is not because of injury and her finger injury of last year is completely healed. And if such h2h stats were not enough (she also finished 22 shots behind Prammanasudh last year), Pak will team with a new caddie this week and she admits to not even knowing his name yet!

Morgan Pressel to beat Meena Lee -108 @ Pinnacle [4pts]
Lee is clearly a player to side with in the outrights at good odds as she has played eleven times this year, winning once, losing a playoff once and finishing outside the top-10 on every other occasion. But that should also mean that she is a good player to oppose in matchups and in the three times that she has beaten Pressel, two of those occasions were due to being 1st or 2nd. Pressel has prevailed in the eight other common events and with some reaction to the playoff loss expected from Lee, Pressel should win again.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple 72 holes--very short course this week and rain projected daily--which will prob mean LC&P which they revert to if heavy dew in mornings


May 30 6:02pm Golf - Pending
1. Golf - Shoprite LPGA Classic June 2 - 4, 2006
Tournament Matchups
Sophie Gustafson vs Morgan Pressel
Morgan Pressel (-110) [pending]

May 30 6:03pm Golf - Pending
1. Golf - Shoprite LPGA Classic June 2 - 4, 2006
Tournament Matchups
Natalie Gulbis vs Meena Lee
Natalie Gulbis (-110) [pending]

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd will play 3ball as matchbet
Kim Mi-Hyun - 125 over Louden Stephanie - Cho Aram @ Expekt

Opting for 3ball over head to head because of weather--could be some significant advatages on tees times and almost impossible to figure where they will be--rain 50% chance and wind projected to reverse from south to north. In these conditions would rather have players going off same time with equal conditions.

Finding little value in in-running this week also due to weather and short 3 day event-- Sundays projection of late tees having best of it will make coming from behind much tougher.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Inkster 25th
Kerr 13th
Creamer 9th

All three in the top-25, but only Creamer really threatened to earn any return. She got within two shots of the lead early in the final round, but dropping three shots in the two holes on the back nine ended any hope of even a place return.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -6.32pts

Prammanasudh/Diaz LOST by 4
Prammanasudh/Pak LOST by 2
Pressel/Lee WON by 14

Very disappointing. Pak could do no more than match her 2nd-best finish this season of 25th, but it was still too much for Prammanasudh who recorded her 2nd-worst finish since February.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 9-25; -11.02pts
Matchups: 20-16; -3.40pts