Short Tiger?

[Myron]

Essentially you can get even money right now at WSEX that Tiger will not win the tournament. He's up by 1 on Sergio, 3 on Lefty and 2 on a bunch of others. I'm not convinced Tiger will win this thing and weather could be a huge factor.

First of all here is Yahoo's weather forecast for tomorrow for Farmington, NY:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with periods of light rain later tonight. Low near 57F. Light E winds. Chance of rain 70%.

Tomorrow: Light rain early with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High near 62F. Winds ENE 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.

If it's anything like I figure then winds will pick up when thunderstorms approach. This will cause trouble for Tiger who tees up early. Also, if a thunderstorm does hit, this could be a big bonus for the later tee times as they will likely have softer greens and more importantly the ability to pick up and clean their balls.

Tiger had a good round today and still only managed -3. I can see him ballooning a bit tomorrow.

 

[ozball]

I've often thought the same thing with Tiger on the interactives, that he is overvalued, with all the "public money" propping him up. even money on "the field" in a US Open sure seems like there should be some value in that....

The only thing that I have in the back of my mind is that he is generally a slow starter, and to give him a shot and more on the field after the first round is more than he usually gets. Still though there has to be some value there...

I'll think about it, may lay it tonight

cheers

ozball

 

[ozball]

decided to sell Tiger short at $48....essentially beting 52 to win 48 that someone else (anyone else!) will beat him. Go the field...

ozball

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

He made everyputt he looked at yesterday which will be hard to repeat but has great course management and is conservative.

 

[Myron]

F*cking Tiger

I notice the other players are starting to get annoyed too. Did you notice how Sergio Garcia and Chris DiMarco essentially said that they've handed Tiger the tournament the way it's set up? And Sergio said that the course was virtually unplayable and
"if Tiger was on the course they would have halted play".

Sour grapes or valid concerns?

Anybody have Tonya Harding's phone number?

 

[ozball]

The conditions favoured him somewhat today, but he still had an amazing round. The interactive price is now 82-87 on him. Even though it looks like his procession from here on, I still think there is value in buying the whole field for $18 to win $100. I know I'm sounding like a broken record here....

Put it the other way around...anyone see value paying $87 to make $13 dollars interest if he wins?

One ball deep in the rough and he's back to Harrington, and there is 36 holes to go...anyone?

cheers

ozball


ps I doubled up my wager when he hit $70, so have 2 units on the field to win for a total cost of $82 to win $118