Hey guys - after a good weekend in CFB let's keep things rolling this Sunday in the NFL!
UPDATED YTD RECORD:
NFL RECORD: 40W - 38L +2.05 UNITS
CFB YTD RECORD: 33W - 30L - 1T +27.85 UNITS
MLB YTD RECORD: 14W - 7L +55.26 UNITS
OVERALL RECORD: 85W - 73L - 1T +85.16 UNITS
I have to say that I capped all the games & deliberated on these plays - I play mostly dogs - and always consider the dogs first - as I like dogs because first of all that team doesn not have to win the game - playing faves forces the team to win & cover - however - after all my capping was done - I felt the best plays of the weeks were on 5 favorites and 1 dog - and 4 of these games have a line of -3.5 - which I hate laying more than 3 points - so this does scare me a bit - i don't usually like to play a lot of faves - and i will be playing a couple of road faves - so far 80% of road faves have been covering - and i keep doubting them every week & waiting for things to even out - well i should have been riding the trend and betting the road faves this season/
What i have come away with through observing the first 6 weeks in the NFL season as to why all these road faves are covering is this - Good teams are winning on the road - and home field advantage has not meant much in this young NFL season...will the trend continue - i don't know - and i have been doubting it would continue over the past 5 weeks - I guess we will find out!
Week 7 picks & analysis:
I locked in these 6 plays on Friday for NFL Sunday & my MNF selection - taking advantage of VIP sportsbooks value lines...
St. Louis -3.5 (-102)
Risking 5.1 units to win 5 units
Ok - i am a huge GB fan having lived in WI forever - and I follow them & the NFC North very closely...one thing i have learned is to ALWAYS PLAY AGAINST GB IN THE DOME...I have seen too many of my friends around here lose too much money betting on the Packers in a Dome - either as a RD or RF...I really thought early in his career Favre would adjust and play better in a dome - but he hasn't - the Rams are playing as good as anyone at home right now...the Pack's secondary is brutal - and right towards the bottom in Pass Defense - although Favre always gives you a chance to win - Bulger & Co. will get the job done - the Packers D will not stop them & the Packers offense will turn the ball over & not keep up on the scoreboard - i see the Rams winning by 10...
Minnesota -3.5 (100)
Risking 5 units to win 5 units
Again I follow the NFC North closely - and I have seen lots of comments like Minnesota is not that good & who have they played - well let me tell you - this is a GOOD football team - the best Vikings team i have seen in years - and are improved on D & Moss is playing focused for the first time - they are off a bye - and at their best in the Dome - I don't buy into that Denver can come in and compete w/ them...this Vikings team can not only pass but they can run the football - Onterrio Smith & Moe Williams will do just enough to balance the offensive attack...Vikings win by at least 7...
Tennessee +1.5 (-102)
Risking 3.06 units to win 3 units
I must admit the Panthers have been impressive - but so have these Titans! McNair on top of his game - and I will take Tennesse's offense over Carolina's - this will be the difference & the Titans win outright...Carolina's undefeated streak will come to an end! Tennessee by 6...
Baltimore -2 (-102)
Risking 3.06 units to win 3 units
OK - at first glance this is one of the road dogs i looked at as possibly upsetting the fave - but upon looking at it more - Baltimore has had great success recently against Cincy...and they will be up for this game on the road...Baltimores D will be ready and Cincy will find a way to lose the game (turnovers!)...still think this will be a close game - but Baltimore comes out on top by at least 3...
TB -3.5 (+102)
Risking 5 units to win 5.1 units
Again this is a very public play - and upon initial look I thought the Niners were the play - however the more I thought about it the more I can see TB shutting down Owens - and their running game - and so what is left? Garcia's offensive line has not been playing well & this was the deciding factor in playing TB - i think TB will be pressuring Garcia all day - remember the first half of the 49ers/Seahawks game - well TB has a chance to make it worse on Garcia than the Seahawks did...I don't see a TB blowout - but at least a 7 pt. victory...lay the points in this one...also didn't hurt getting this at +102!
And here is my MNF play:
KC -3.5 (100)
Risking 5 units to win 5 units
Feel this will again be another public play - and this play comes down to playing the better team - usually just picking the MNF winner is enough because they seem to cover the spread too - on one hand the Raiders usually play weel on MNF - well except earlier this year - and Oakland has been horrible ATS this year...they aren't covering anything - even when they have a 15 pt. lead over the Bears they blew it...the question i guess i really asked myself is this - "Can Oakland really outscore the Chiefs?" - here is my answer - no they can't...KC by 14....
So in summary - i have decided to lay some points this weekend - and i think this will be a very good weekend - however i asked myself - "what if the road dogs do cover & Denver & GB & Carolina show up to play?" - when I have a few games going at once sometimes i like to back my picks up w/ an insurance parlay - playing the opposite of all my picks - this prevents a really bad day from happening - i mean i would love to go 5-0 tomorrow - but the reality is in the NFL anything can happen - and an 0-5 day would not make my day I mean i have a total of 21.22 units risked to win 21.1 units in my initial 5 plays for Sunday - so for some insurance i will add this opposite 5 team parlay for tomorrow (just locked in on this parlay today so lines a little different than above single plays in some cases):
5 team "opposite insurance" parlay:
Bengals +2 (-110)
Broncos +3.5 (100)
Carolina -2 (-110)
Packers +3.5 (-105)
SF +3.5 (-110)
Risking 1 unit to win 26.2 units
The purpose of this insurance parlay is an 0-5 day would mean i would lose 21.22 units from my plays but win 26.2 - netting 4.98 units! Hey i just think it's smart to realize that we all have bad days & this turns a really bad day into a good day...i don't see an 0-5 scenario happening - but better to be safe than to kick yourself for having a bad day...
Good luck tomorrow everyone & hope you all have a great day!
--SHOWRUNNER
UPDATED YTD RECORD:
NFL RECORD: 40W - 38L +2.05 UNITS
CFB YTD RECORD: 33W - 30L - 1T +27.85 UNITS
MLB YTD RECORD: 14W - 7L +55.26 UNITS
OVERALL RECORD: 85W - 73L - 1T +85.16 UNITS
I have to say that I capped all the games & deliberated on these plays - I play mostly dogs - and always consider the dogs first - as I like dogs because first of all that team doesn not have to win the game - playing faves forces the team to win & cover - however - after all my capping was done - I felt the best plays of the weeks were on 5 favorites and 1 dog - and 4 of these games have a line of -3.5 - which I hate laying more than 3 points - so this does scare me a bit - i don't usually like to play a lot of faves - and i will be playing a couple of road faves - so far 80% of road faves have been covering - and i keep doubting them every week & waiting for things to even out - well i should have been riding the trend and betting the road faves this season/
What i have come away with through observing the first 6 weeks in the NFL season as to why all these road faves are covering is this - Good teams are winning on the road - and home field advantage has not meant much in this young NFL season...will the trend continue - i don't know - and i have been doubting it would continue over the past 5 weeks - I guess we will find out!
Week 7 picks & analysis:
I locked in these 6 plays on Friday for NFL Sunday & my MNF selection - taking advantage of VIP sportsbooks value lines...
St. Louis -3.5 (-102)
Risking 5.1 units to win 5 units
Ok - i am a huge GB fan having lived in WI forever - and I follow them & the NFC North very closely...one thing i have learned is to ALWAYS PLAY AGAINST GB IN THE DOME...I have seen too many of my friends around here lose too much money betting on the Packers in a Dome - either as a RD or RF...I really thought early in his career Favre would adjust and play better in a dome - but he hasn't - the Rams are playing as good as anyone at home right now...the Pack's secondary is brutal - and right towards the bottom in Pass Defense - although Favre always gives you a chance to win - Bulger & Co. will get the job done - the Packers D will not stop them & the Packers offense will turn the ball over & not keep up on the scoreboard - i see the Rams winning by 10...
Minnesota -3.5 (100)
Risking 5 units to win 5 units
Again I follow the NFC North closely - and I have seen lots of comments like Minnesota is not that good & who have they played - well let me tell you - this is a GOOD football team - the best Vikings team i have seen in years - and are improved on D & Moss is playing focused for the first time - they are off a bye - and at their best in the Dome - I don't buy into that Denver can come in and compete w/ them...this Vikings team can not only pass but they can run the football - Onterrio Smith & Moe Williams will do just enough to balance the offensive attack...Vikings win by at least 7...
Tennessee +1.5 (-102)
Risking 3.06 units to win 3 units
I must admit the Panthers have been impressive - but so have these Titans! McNair on top of his game - and I will take Tennesse's offense over Carolina's - this will be the difference & the Titans win outright...Carolina's undefeated streak will come to an end! Tennessee by 6...
Baltimore -2 (-102)
Risking 3.06 units to win 3 units
OK - at first glance this is one of the road dogs i looked at as possibly upsetting the fave - but upon looking at it more - Baltimore has had great success recently against Cincy...and they will be up for this game on the road...Baltimores D will be ready and Cincy will find a way to lose the game (turnovers!)...still think this will be a close game - but Baltimore comes out on top by at least 3...
TB -3.5 (+102)
Risking 5 units to win 5.1 units
Again this is a very public play - and upon initial look I thought the Niners were the play - however the more I thought about it the more I can see TB shutting down Owens - and their running game - and so what is left? Garcia's offensive line has not been playing well & this was the deciding factor in playing TB - i think TB will be pressuring Garcia all day - remember the first half of the 49ers/Seahawks game - well TB has a chance to make it worse on Garcia than the Seahawks did...I don't see a TB blowout - but at least a 7 pt. victory...lay the points in this one...also didn't hurt getting this at +102!
And here is my MNF play:
KC -3.5 (100)
Risking 5 units to win 5 units
Feel this will again be another public play - and this play comes down to playing the better team - usually just picking the MNF winner is enough because they seem to cover the spread too - on one hand the Raiders usually play weel on MNF - well except earlier this year - and Oakland has been horrible ATS this year...they aren't covering anything - even when they have a 15 pt. lead over the Bears they blew it...the question i guess i really asked myself is this - "Can Oakland really outscore the Chiefs?" - here is my answer - no they can't...KC by 14....
So in summary - i have decided to lay some points this weekend - and i think this will be a very good weekend - however i asked myself - "what if the road dogs do cover & Denver & GB & Carolina show up to play?" - when I have a few games going at once sometimes i like to back my picks up w/ an insurance parlay - playing the opposite of all my picks - this prevents a really bad day from happening - i mean i would love to go 5-0 tomorrow - but the reality is in the NFL anything can happen - and an 0-5 day would not make my day I mean i have a total of 21.22 units risked to win 21.1 units in my initial 5 plays for Sunday - so for some insurance i will add this opposite 5 team parlay for tomorrow (just locked in on this parlay today so lines a little different than above single plays in some cases):
5 team "opposite insurance" parlay:
Bengals +2 (-110)
Broncos +3.5 (100)
Carolina -2 (-110)
Packers +3.5 (-105)
SF +3.5 (-110)
Risking 1 unit to win 26.2 units
The purpose of this insurance parlay is an 0-5 day would mean i would lose 21.22 units from my plays but win 26.2 - netting 4.98 units! Hey i just think it's smart to realize that we all have bad days & this turns a really bad day into a good day...i don't see an 0-5 scenario happening - but better to be safe than to kick yourself for having a bad day...
Good luck tomorrow everyone & hope you all have a great day!
--SHOWRUNNER
