Showrunner's Wednesday Night Play

[SHOWRUNNER]

Hey guys - looking to start off the CFB week right tonight...it seems like a lot of people are uncertain about this game...I on the other hand really like this game...making a 10 unit play

UPDATED YTD RECORD:

NFL RECORD: 48W - 45L +9.29 UNITS
CFB YTD RECORD: 33W - 30L - 1T +27.85 UNITS
MLB YTD RECORD: 15W - 9L +55.06 UNITS
OVERALL RECORD: 96W - 84L - 1T +92.20 UNITS

Tonight's Play & Analysis:

Virginia Tech -13 (-110)
Risking 11 units to win 10 units...

OK - i have been reading alot about how West Virginia played Miami close & that Virginia Tech is going to be overlooking this game because they play Miami in a little over a week - whoa - we can stop right here - Virginia Tech WILL be up for this game - they are DOMINATING teams right now - they outmatch West Virginia in every aspect of the game - Offense, Defense & Special Teams...VT is averaging 45.5 pts. per game & giving up only 14.8 pts. per game - first in the Big East in many categories...

VT has beaten Syracuse by 44, UConn by 34 - which are both better ball clubs than this West Virginia club...West Virginia lost by 27 at home to Maryland...well you get the point of my analysis...I like the line right where it is at at -13...I think Vegas has it set just right to suck in the West Virginia money...people will feel they are getting some generous points for the home team & will take the bait & bet West Virginia...I see VT winning in the range of 14 - 28 points...

VT has not scored less than 35 pts. in a game all year - and they will score at least that tonight...I will be surprised to see West Virginia put up 21 tonight...VT is the more solid team - and they do have something to play for - they will want to blow out West Virginia so they can go into the Miami game with even more confidence...

VT just playing too well right now & West Virginia is not - lay the points & go with the all around better team tonight rather than hoping for this West Virginia team to try and hang close and lose by less than 2 TDs...

GL w/ whatever you decide to play - I hope there are some VT backers out there tonight - I do believe it is the right side!

--SHOWRUNNER

 

[Variable1]

When in Doubt always play the better team.

I should have heeded that advice with the KC Game.

BOL
V

 

[Boneinthehouse]

Not that it will change your pick but the Maryland game was at Maryland. Thought you should know. GL Bone

 

[releasedahounds]

RUNNER,

I am right with you on this one bud, but I bet the game a little differently than you did and wanted to run it by you to see what you and the board thought.

I had Miami in that terrible game a couple weeks back b/c I thought UM would run the ball well to set up the pass, and that the UM LBs would shut down the WVA running game (the KEY to their offense)

Anyways, the problem that night was that Gore tore his knee up, and UMs run D is simply not as good as I thought it was, really no even close.

The KEY STAT for tonight is that VT has a legit run defense, giving up less than 90 ypg!!!!

If WVA can't run, they can't score. Ask any WVA FAN and they will tell you that their "dual-threat" QB is overrated and not much of a passer when their team is forced to throw.

Tonight I took 5 units on VT (-13)- I think it will rise by kickoff AND coupled it with 5 units on the UNDER (53).

I think that the VT defense will shut down the WVA offense with their run stopping ability. Further, I think that in such a big game, the WVA D will also put up quite a fight, for awhile at least. VT has been a ball control, clock chewing running team for years now, and have not been throwing the deep ball as much as they have in the past.

Basically, I think the LEAST LIKELY outcome is for WVA to light up the scoreboard for any more than 14 points. If this game goes over, I think it is b/c VT puts up 45 and WVA has 10. I know that this bet exposes me BOTH WAYS to the backdoor cover, but I think the well-coached, forewarned, revenge-minded Hokies play all 4 quarters tonight!

dahounds

 

[releasedahounds]

SHOW,

How common is a 11-unit play for you....I don't think that I have ever seen you post one that large??!?!?! Obviously you are strong on this one, got any extra info I may have missed?

dahounds

 

[IrishFan]

Looks like some showers could be in the forecast for tonights game. Could affect the passing game for both teams...not that WV is going to pass all that much. The only prob I have with VTech is that they have played pretty much a pitty-pat schedule up to now, could come back and bite them in the ass. This one could be close...

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

dahounds - I agree w/ you that under is the play - was strongly considering it - but instead just going w/ the VT play...you are correct about VT's run defense - and if they can shut it down right away I don't think West Virginia can beat them passing the ball...will also have to keep an eye on the weather i guess if rain is in the forecast...and IrishFan - i know that VT's schedule hasn't been the toughest but i did point out the wins vs. Syracuse & UConn by a big number & WV's schedule hasn't been the toughest either...

I really feel strongly about VT covering the number tonight...oh also about the 10 unit play - i vary my plays usually from 2 - 10 units - i am one that does weight my plays depending on the strength i feel the game is...it's how i have always capped & has worked for the past 5 years as my higher unit plays have done well...I think this is my first 10 unit CFB selection thus far...I have had some in MLB & NFL...again nothing is ever a lock and anybody can be beat on any given day - but i feel very strongly about VT tonight...they will be looking to make a statement that they are a very good team & will be making a run for the National Championship...

GL to you guys...

 

[kenman]

SHOW, with you all the way and Hokies are out seeking revenge for last seasons 21-18 home loss to West Virginia.

Also what your take on the 1st and 2nd half??? Thanks and GLTA.

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

kenman - i do like VT -7 in the first half - but again am just sticking w/ the game wager...I really think VT will be up by 2 scores by halftime...as for the 2nd half we will have to watch the first half & see how the teams play out the first 30 minutes...I really like making 2nd half wagers because you get to see how the game is playing out & most of the time 2nd half wagers come down to momentum at the half...I see a lot of running in this game w/ VT having success and moving the football...as always turnovers will play a big key in the game - I think the key for VT is to get up at least 2 scores early - they can't let WV hang around...GL to you tonight!

 

[boilermaker]

Good Luck tonight Show, I agree with the pick.

 

[DELLMONT]

good luck,

 

[treynolds]

i see the game exactly the same
pounding it hard tonight also


gl

 

[Kdogg21]

Good luck Showrunner!!!!

 

[ajoytoy]

wow 11 Units

bol buddy!


toy

 

[the_allt]

Love the write up! I'm with you on this one tonight.

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Adding 2nd half play:

VT -7.5 (-115)
Risking 11.5 units to win 10 units

I believe we will see a different VT team in the 2nd half - back to playing tough D & running the FB...this game is far from over!

GL to all!

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Brutal night - 0-2 -22.5 units...worst day of the year for me...it happens...VT simply outplayed - congrats to WV backers...still don't think anyone saw this end result coming - at least not a VT loss by that margin...but as i said earlier - anyone can beat anyone on any given day...just didn't think it would be VT's day to be the team that was beaten badly!

UPDATED YTD RECORD:

NFL RECORD: 48W - 45L +9.29 UNITS
CFB YTD RECORD: 33W - 32L - 1T +5.35 UNITS
MLB YTD RECORD: 15W - 9L +55.06 UNITS
OVERALL RECORD: 96W - 86L - 1T +69.7 UNITS

Hope the weekend is kinder to me! GL to everyone - this game will sting for a while...

GL to all!

 

[pt1gard]

hang in there SR

hang in there SR

for a guy hitting 51% in fball, you are still up 14.64 units, thats all that counts, lots wish they were plus ...

gl, gregg

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Thanks pt1gard for the comment - you are right - being in the positive is a plus...the big thing is i am having fun and making a profit doing something i like to do...I had a bad night tonight - but that is part of playing the games - we can't win them all - just cap the best we can & go w/ it...GL to you to...