Smurfit European Open

[Ian]

2 initial outright plays
Cabrera - good course and recent form as low as 12-1 at Ladbrokes - got the early 25-1 at Betinternet (now 22-1) but still 25-1 Stan James
Fasth - in form player with an average record here 100-1 at Sports.com is a bit big
72 hole
Coltart over Howell -111 Betinternet 2 in form players but Howell has missed every cut here

 

[Ian]

One speculative punt for the week - Gary Emerson for some reason only plays well in Ireland (no matter what the event) was 6th here 2 years ago and tied for the lead after 2 rounds last year, played well last week to finish 6th -160-1 at Centrebet although I have put more on the 40-1 place option

 

[Ian]

Also adding Gronberg - past winner and played well here last year - last weeks missed cut at the Irish Open was exactly the same as last year and he has had numerous high finishes of late - 50-1 Surrey

 

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

At last normality returns to the European Tour! The favorite won an event and Monty did so in some style. It certainly eases some of Sam Torrance's Ryder Cup woes, though he is still staring at the possibility of having to leave out players in the top-50 of the world rankings! The European Tour remains in Ireland for the European Open, hosted at the K Club, just south of Dublin and home of the 2005 Ryder Cup. There is one of the strongest fields of the year on view this week and there really shouldn't be a surprise winner, but we've said that before now.

The players with great course form are Lee Westwood, Darren Clarke and Angel Cabrera. Westwood has won this event for the last two years and his withdrawal in 1998 can de discounted as he was suffering from a hip injury and it was surprising that he started at all. His win in 1999 came at the expense of Darren Clarke who shot 60 that year yet missed two very makeable putts on the 17th & 18th. To show how remarkable that round was, the 2nd lowest round at the K Club is 64! That was set by Per-Ulrik Johansson who won this event in 1996 and 1997 and was a very profitable 100/1 selection last year as he finished 3rd. He is playing in the Western Open this week. More will be said about Cabrera later.

Like any Arnold Palmer course, there are wide open fairways and plenty of water to make this a target golf venue, hence the Ryder Cup decision. To compensate, it is long at 7,179 yards, and the course was even tightened up in 1998 to prepare it for the Ryder Cup bid, which makes it all the more remarkable that Darren Clarke shot 60. The home pro is Paul McGinley who, apart from a missed cut in 1999, has a good record in this event, though as ever, he has not converted top-20 positions into wins.

Monty, Westwood and Clarke are all passed over this week. Monty does not a great record on this course, Westwood embarrassed himself at the Great North Open last time out and Clarke is just too frustrating a player to side with. Instead, this week's trio are Angel Cabrera, Thomas Bjorn and Retief Goosen. Nothing too original this week.

With finishes of 5th, 6th and 2nd in the last three years, Cabrera would be a selection this week even if he hadn't secured his maiden win on Tour earlier this season. He was an excellent 7th in the US Open on a course that does not suit his very long-hitting and he has finished 2nd in two of his last three European Tour event. He pushed Westwood all the way last year before losing out by one shot; this year he is very capable of finishing the job.

Bjorn and Goosen do not share Cabrera's course form, but both share his powerful hitting which is required on this long course. Bjorn has at least finished in the top-10 twice in the last five years and is capable of winning this event as he showed in beating Tiger in Dubai earlier this year. He had been struggling with his game and with an injured hand, but 22nd in the US Open was a decent finish and a closing 66 to finish 5th last week is evidence enough that the confidence has returned. With that as his all-important 15th club, he can go close this week.

Confidence should not be problem for 'The Goose' since he is now holds the US Open title. This is his first time back in competitive golf since that victory and with many other first-time or infrequent major winners, it should be expected that his game should decline for the rest of the year. I doubt this will be the case with the man who makes Ernie Els look frantic. He currently sits on top of the Volvo Order or Merit and winning that will be a goal this season. If he does, he will be the first non-European to do so since Greg Norman in 1982. That season, Norman amassed ?66,000; in winning the US Open alone, Goosen won ten times more than Norman did in the whole season!

Outright plays:

Angel Cabrera to win 18/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Thomas Bjorn to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or Sports.com
Retief Goosen to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stanley

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Paul Casey to beat Justin Rose +100 @ Sports.com
Had this matchup two weeks ago and Casey beat Rose by four shots at the Great North Open. Playing it again for the same reasons: Rose can be expected to feature this week, but will not be on the leaderboard at the end of the week. Casey is the more serious title challenger and his missed cut can be discounted as a reaction to his 2nd place at the Great North Open

David Howell to beat Justin Rose -110 @ Surrey
Howell has a very poor record on this course, but it has been a few years since he has played as well as he is doing at the moment. He has secured top-10 finishes in four of his last seven events; we would need to go back to his British Open glory of 1998 to find a 4th top-10 finish for Rose in a European Tour event

Sandy Lyle to beat Eamonn Darcy -110 @ Sports.com
Will be interesting to see how Darcy responds to finishing 63rd last week despite an opening 65; his woeful record on this course suggests he will continue as he left off at the weekend. Lyle at least has been making cuts in this event and in recent weeks; he beat Darcy by six shots last week

Eduardo Romero to beat Ian Poulter -115 @ Camelot or Intertops
Maybe after three consecutive top-10 finishes, I should stop opposing Poulter, but will do once this week. Romero is well-rested having only played in the US Open (51st) in the last month. He comes to a couse on which he plays very well in the past and should secure the top-10 finish that Poulter will find hard to repeat having had just one week's rest in two months

 

[Stanley]

1st round plays:

Angel Cabrera to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Adam Scott to beat Michael Campbell -109 @ Five Dimes

 

[Ian]

Stan
Not very often I voice a disagreement with someone else selections - but Howell over Rose?!?
Yes Howell is in good form at present but he has been in good form going into the event before and has played appallingly, Rose is no world beater but has made his last 6 cuts finishing no worse than 32nd and it was this event last year that signalled a change in his fortune when he made the cut

 

[Stanley]

No problems disagreeing, but I would offer these:

* Since the European Tour reached the Northern Hemisphere Howell leads Rose 6-5 when they have played common events this year

* The best Howell has been in the event before the European Open has been 20th; he's missed the cut & withdrawn in the weeks before the European Open in the last two years. Hardly on a wave of good form

* This will be Rose's 8th start in 9 weeks and he has the played the weekend in all but the first of these events. For me, that is too much golf and it may be a reason why he continuously fails to finish the top-10

* Rose's breakthrough was at the 1999 European Grand Prix - not last season's European Open - which he followed with 42nd at the West of Ireland Classic and 15th at the Scottish PGA Championship and then opened the 2000 campaign with some decent finishes. The 46th place in last year's European Open ended a run of missed cuts; the psychological benefit of making his first weekend came in 1999

* Personally, I weight far more on current form than course form when they are pointing in opposite directions. Gary Evans had missed the cut at all 4 visits to Straffan before leading after 36 holes and eventually finishing 8th last year; Steve Webster had missed the cut at all 4 visits to Straffan before finishing 13th last year

At the end of the day, whether Howell or Rose wins is not decisive. What is important is that there is a fundamental analysis to the picks that we make. We may differ on our picks, but the rationale behind our picks remains intact.

 

[Ian]

I would like to point out that this is simply a disagreement on a selection and shall be conducted in the manner accustomed to a disagreement in the gentlemanly game that is golf (ie - no slagging off or swearing) - the simple fact is that we disagree because we look at bets from a differing viewpoint on this one (Sorry if this sounds very English - but this is the real point of these debating forums)
I will say that I would not bet Rose in this one as I think opposing Howell with Coltart was a far better call
Rose in 2000 had missed 9 straight cuts and this tournament nearly led to a turnaround in fortunes whereby he nearly secured his card outright for 2001
The important fact is Howell has always played badly here implying it does not suit his game - his form going into the event has never been as good as this year but has not been that bad
2000 - 2/c/c
1999 - 15/23/45
1998 - 21/16 then shot 83/82!
1997 - 15
1996 - 4/20
I simply believe for some reason the course does not suit him and would not advocate a bet in these circumstances

 

[Stanley]

1st round update: 0-1-1 and -1.09 units

Lucky! Lucky! Lucky! Westwood was coasting at 3-under-par, when he took a double-bogey at the 13th and then dropped a shot at the par-five last hole. It meant a push with both playing shooting 71

Scott was comprehensively defeated by eight shots in the other match. At least the 72-hole plays look good. Both Howell and Casey lead Rose by nine shots after 18 holes, while Lyle leads Darcy by two and Romero trails Poulter by just one. In the outrights, Goosen is best place at just two out of the lead, Cabrera is two further back and Bjorn a further two.

2nd round plays:

Retief Goosen to beat Michael Campbell -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Brett Rumford -130 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

 

[Ian]

OK here with my tail between my legs - Howell played well and Rose dropped 6 shots in the last few holes including an 8 at the par 4 17th

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 1-0-1 and +3.00 units

Luck evens itself out over the season; yesterday's luck evened itself out within 24 hours! Yesterday's 2-unit play was saved by a poor close by Westwood; today's 2-unit play was lost by Goosen surrendering a 3-shot lead with 2 holes to play

As yesterday, the result was a tie so a fair result I suppose. In the other play, Gonzalez beat Rumford by seven shots.

Of the 72-hole plays, three were decided at the cut. Casey beat Rose by sixteen shots and Howell beat Rose by thirteen. The other play was a loss: Lyle finished five shots behind Darcy at the cut. The other play only just makes the weekend. Romero leads by one shots, but Poulter made the cut right on the mark. In the outrights, Goosen lies 10th but for a few problems with a hook off the tee, he looks in great form and should at least secure a top-5 finish. Bjorn and Cabrera lie five shots further back in 49th place.

Nothing from Five Dimes' lines. Will look at the two-ball lines in the morning.

 

[Stanley]

3rd round plays:

Mark Roe to beat Alan McLean +125 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]
Massimo Scarpa to beat Maarten Lefeber -110 @ Eurobet or Paddy Power

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 0-2-0 and -3.10 units

Grrrrh! I hate losing to ties and both plays were tied

Roe and McLean shot 71; Scarpa and Lefeber shot 73. Think I have more than paid back my luck on the first day! At least it was a decent day in the other plays. Romero stretched his lead over Poulter to nine shots in the remaining 72-hole plays. In the outrights, Bjorn and Cabrera shot 65 and 66 to shoot right back into contention. They stand 10th and 16th respectively. Goosen seems to have used up all his putts at Southern Hills. He slipped back to 32nd.

Nothing from Five Dimes' lines. Back in the morning with a look at the two-ball plays.

 

[Stanley]

4th round plays:

Gordon Brand jnr. to beat Alan McLean -110 @ Eurobet [2 units]
Ian Garbutt to beat David Carter -110 @ Eurobet
Retief Goosen to beat Maarten Lefeber -150 @ BetSmart or UKBetting [2 units]

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 2-1-0 and +0.80 units for the day; 6-5-2 and +1.51 units for the week

Damn ties again! The only loss on the day was with the two-unit play on Brand. That's twice in two days that McLean has tied my selections for losses

At least the other two were comfortable wins. Garbutt beat Carter by three and Goosen beat Lafeber by six. In the remaining 72-hole play, Romero beat Poulter by 14 shots. Lost five plays this week and three of them were ties ... spoilt an otherwise good week

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.25 units

Bjorn finished strongly to finish 2nd, albeit three shots behind Clarke. He did have the consolation of a ?100,000 diamond for reaching the target of 14-under-par for the par-fives for the week! Goosen put in a great charge on the back nine, but failed to birdie the par-five lost and paid the price. He finished 6th, one shot out of a place finish. Cabrera had a disappointing day to fall to 34th.

European Tour ytd
Matchups/props: 77-82; -1.47 units
Outright plays: 9-29; +31.39 units