Smurfit European Open

[steved]

early selection..trying to get biggest price winner of season..good effort last week for those picking Begay!!
Henrik Bjornstad...0.5 ew 250/1 Sportingodds..
6th here last year, 27th in Murphys after bogey, double bogey, birdie, bogey finish, wheels came off, hope he has learnt from it..
tried to understand more from his website but it is in Norwegian, no English button!

 

[milpalm]

I noticed that price too. Bjornstad said he was happy with the way he was playing considering he was coming off a break.

My first pick is Mathias Gronberg at a generous 125/1 with Sportingodds. He won this in 1998 and was 12th last year and 4th in 2000. Gronberg returned last week after having taken a break to become a father. The Swede missed the cut last week but has 2 top 10s this year.

 

[Ian]

Quite a few early prices out for the Smurfit European Open at the K Club and a player returning to Europe and from injury is Jose Coceres - has a good record round here before he went to the US, and is a better player now, now recovered from his broken arm any 100/1 should be taken (he is that at Heathorns and might be equalled at a few others)
Second bet is Gronberg - has played little this year - ignore last week - he always plays badly at the Irish Open - but his form here is VERY good - including a 10 shot winner in 1998 - he should not be the 125/1 that Sporting Odds quote.

 

[Monarch]

Taking a few early:

Harrington 14/1 @ Heathorns
Clarke 14/1 @ Chandler both 2 Units ew
Goosen 18/1 @ Chandler 1 Unit ew.

Clarke seems to love this place Win-7-2-4. I think also his game has been in great shape the past couple of months and could well win again here. Harrington is yet to really shine on the European Tour this season and with some encouraging signs last Sunday should make a genuine challenge. The Goose has had a good rest now and should be ready for action. With Bet365 going 9/1, 18/1 seems like a nice price.

 

[steved]

to complete picks
1 ew Price 40/1 (365, Sportingbet)
in good form, and plays this course well...
1 ew Lawrie 50/1 (VC, Heathorns)
same as Price!
I think these two play better when smaller fish in pond as opposed to being expected winners, Eurobet seem to fancy them both with prices of 22/1 and 28/1 respectively...
Can someone find 150/1 Rocca, I can only find 125 and am greedy, and he is nearly a Senior!

 

[Ian]

To continue all the agreement around here - also gone for Lawrie - good record here, wind etc etc - he's 66/1 at Stan James

 

[boris]

Rocca 150/1 at Tattsbet

 

[milpalm]

Philip Price, 50/1 Centrebet. He's in fine form and in this event he was 8th last year and 2nd in 1998.

Angel Cabrera, 22/1 Victorchandler. A couple of indifferent performances from the Argentinian lately but here he has 3 top 10 finishes the last 4 years.

 

[bettingmad]

Padraig Harrington 14/1 Heathorns
Have to fancy Harrington the way he finished strongly last week. His course form is not outstanding with just two top 20's from his last 5 visits though obviously he is a much improved player than on some of those visits. Guaranteed a run for your money with 7 top 12's in his last 8 outings, the only failure being in the Volvo PGA which is an event he never seems to do well in. 5th in the Masters & 8th in the US Open.

Angel Cabrera 22/1 Victor Chandler
Would have been more strongly fancied a month ago... but then we wouldn't have got 22/1. Had a bit of a lull since his Benson & Hedges win but most be considered here after his 5th 1998, 6th 1999 & 2nd 2000

 

[Monarch]

Trying a little 'To Make Cut' 5-fold:

Cabrera 1/7
Lawrie 1/5
Funk 2/9
Price 1/6
Goosen 1/6

Pays 2.28 @ Chandler for 3 Units.

 

[Monarch]

72-Hole Matchups:

72-Hole Matchups:

Lawrie v Westwood 9/10 @ Chandler 2.5 Units
Romero v Langer 9/10 @ Chandler 2 Units
Lawrie v O'Malley 10/11 @ Surrey 1.5 Units

 

[Monarch]

I'm 95% sure my 'To Make Cut' accumulator is a loss cos Price pulled out. Can anyone confirm?

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch,
Had a look in my VC rule book but it's not mentioned. I would assume that it is definitely a loser.

Was going to try find out via the 'Vc'.com site but it is down again.... interestingly found a 'vc'.co.uk which apparently is a separate company.... (offers up to ?50 cash back on a first bet). Don't know if the prices are the same as 'vc'.com but would assume so.

 

[Monarch]

Cheers Bettingmad. My account has been updated now and the bet is down as a loss . Hopefully this will finally convince me that accumulators are a waste of time.

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch
A sobering thought about accumulators....

With 5 selections and two possible results for each leg the probability of you getting it right is 2x2x2x2x2 = 31/1 and in your case you would have been paid odds of 1.28/1

 

[Monarch]

Final Summary:

Final Summary:

Harrington 2nd
Goosen 2nd
Clarke 20th

p/l for week: +4.5 Units
Outrights ytd: +26.37 Units

Matchups for the week (3-1) +2.41 Units
Matchups ytd (13-12) +8.65 Units

Total P/L YTD: +35.02 Units.

One of those 'so near so far' weeks . What on earth was Harrington thinking??

 

[steved]

Harrington was probably thinking too much...see his web-site...
it was a real battle of the bottlers...and I can talk having backed Padraig and Cambo already this year...you need a big price...to make the likely place finish worthwhile...
here are Padraig's thoughts
http://www.padraigharrington.com/news/fulltext.sps?sid=7218&lid=1&aid=10158&atpval=0

 

[Monarch]

Thanks steved. I ain't buying into Padraigs 'I hit it perfectly and a sudden gust of wind F****D me' routine. He simply was unable to execute the right shot at the necessary time. I think he spent to long in amateur golf and still lacks a killer mentality. In saying this I kinda like the Irish twit so will try and lay off him for a while till he chokes again in 2 weeks time.

 

[bettingmad]

After the event Padraig said he "felt gutted".... I only wish I had been able to feel as good as that.