SNF Misc Write-ups

[Senor Capper]

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).

It's a bittersweet game for Drew Brees. He will break Johnny Unitas' record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass at 48 and do it against the team that drafted him. He also should prevail at home in a shootout against the quarterback, Philip Rivers, who replaced him. Despite making history, the Saints' resulting 1-4 record will still eat at Brees as a competitor. That's the makeup that makes him an all-time great.

Saints 34, Chargers 30

 

[Senor Capper]

NEW ORLEANS over San Diego


There have been plenty of teams that start a year at 0-4 and most of them were deserving of such a start. The Saints don?t belong in that category. This is a quality team that employs one of the top QB?s in the NFL, as his numbers will confirm. Drew Brees leads the league in passing with 1,350 yards.
The Chargers have defeated Oakland, Tennessee and K.C while getting whacked by Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Note that the team that destroyed them had a quality QB. Against Oakland, they blocked four punts. Against K.C. they were aided by six Chief turnovers. The Chargers 3-1 record against bad clubs is all smoke and mirrors. This is a stagnant offensive team and by year?s end the numbers will reflect just that.
Last week, we were fortunate to squeeze by with the Packers one-point win over these Saints for our Survivor pick. Those that played Atlanta or Arizona and even Baltimore, to a lesser extent, could easily be on the rail. This week, most of your poolies will be on the G-Men, Niners or Texans. With every big favorite winning last week, a time bomb could be ticking and if it goes off, one or two of this week?s ?Big 3? will lose outright. We?re certainly not going to guess which it will be. Instead, in sticking with our theory of not going down with or advancing with the rest of the pack, we?re as comfortable endorsing the Saints as we are any of the aforementioned teams. The Saints are embarrassed by their start. While it won?t be easy, they still want to defy the odds and shoot for the playoffs. If that is to happen, it has to start here. Against an overvalued visitor, we?re confident that it will.

Week 5 pick ? New Orleans Money Line.

 

[Senor Capper]

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints Over 54 Points


The Saints are desperate for a win, and with their horrendous defense, they will go for it behind their offense. That means the Chargers will also be throwing to score points and keep up which should translate to an entertaining offensive game. The Over occurs in nearly 57 percent of simulations. The computer has gone 3-1 for both teams picking Totals this season.

 

[Senor Capper]

NEW ORLEANS -3? -109 over San Diego


When was last time a 0-4 team was favored over a 3-1 squad and by more than a field goal? Oddsmakers are not fools. They are not in the habit of giving away cash. Despite New Orleans? dismal start, the team does have talent. For those that think Drew Brees has regressed, think again. Brees leads the league with 1,350 passing yards to date. The Saints? defense has been the trouble spot but we?re not convinced that San Diego?s offence is a unit to be overly concerned with.

The Chargers have defeated the Raiders (aided by a slew of blocked kicks), the Titans and the Chiefs (KC with 6 turnovers), teams with a 3-9 record collectively. San Diego lacks a running game while Philip Rivers can?t find a rhythm with his overrated receiving corp. Much like the Cardinals are not a 5-0 team, proving it on Thursday night, the Saints are not an 0-5 team and a reversal of fortune is forthcoming in this Sunday prime timer for all to see.


NEW ORLEANS -3? -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

[Senor Capper]

1-Unit Play. Take #211 New Orleans (-3.5) over San Diego (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

There is desperation, and then there is what the Saints face on Sunday night. This team is 0-4 and needs something to go right in a big way. The fact that they are 0-4 and that they are still the favorites in this game shows me how much respect the oddsmakers have for New Orleans' prowess in the Superdome. Their defense is still a train wreck. But I think that they will be able to force Phil Rivers into some turnovers behind that shaky offensive line. San Diego is the least impressive 3-1 team in football. They have beaten three horrendous teams (Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City) and they have won those games mainly because their opponents threw up on themselves with turnovers and horrible special teams play. The Chargers have actually been outgained in three of their four contests and I think that this team is overrated. Maybe this is the week that it catches up to them. Maybe it is not. But both of these teams have weaknesses. And I think that the home crowd, the better offense, and the desperation that comes from being 0-4 will give the Saints a boost here and help them beat this number.

 

[Senor Capper]

Game 433-434: San Diego at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. EST)
D Ratings: San Diego 131.591; New Orleans 133.820
D Line: New Orleans by 2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 54
D Pick: San Diego (+3 1/2); Over

 

[Senor Capper]

Matchup: San Diego at New Orleans
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New Orleans (-3 -125)

Posted on: October 2, 2012 @ 2:12:41 AM EDT

The Saints aren't going to make the playoffs. Not starting 0-4 and in a tough division. But they will be up for this nationally televised home game against an overrated foe.

Thanks to Drew Brees, the Saints still have an elite offense. Brees is at his absolute finest when playing at home. In his last nine games at the Louisiana Superdome, Brees is 236-of-351 (67 percent) for 3,029 yards and 32 touchdowns with just seven interceptions.

Yes, Brees does miss the coaching acumen of Sean Payton. But Brees still is on pace to throw for 5,400 yards and 40 touchdowns. The Saints are going to put up plenty of points on the Chargers. The key question is can the Saints' defense stop anyone?

The Saints lack talent on defense. They are not good tacklers, nor pass rushers. But they will get after Philip Rivers, spurred on by their home crowd in this matchup. This wil be the Saints' Super Bowl game.

Left tackle Jared Gaither is back to protect Philip Rivers' blind side. Gaither is a hupe upgrade for San Diego. But he is rusty after missing training camp, preseason and the first three games of the season with back problems.

The Chargers do not have a strong early-season history. Norv Turner has had much better teams at San Diego than this one. Still, his record with the Chargers during September and October is just 20-20.

San Diego is 3-1, but the lone time it stepped up in class it was buried. That came at home against the Falcons, who won 27-3. Victories against bad foes - Raiders, Titans and Chiefs - don't impress me. The Chargers were out-gained by the Chiefs, but won easily because of six Kansas City turnovers.

_________________________

 

[Senor Capper]

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 54)

The Saints will continue to have trouble winning until their NFL-worst defense (463.2 yards per game) figures out a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone. The Chargers are coming off a 37-20 victory at Kansas City, and will try for their second consecutive 4-1 start. New Orleans has played over the total in eight of its last nine games overall.

=============

Chargers +3 at Saints: I don?t really understand how the Saints can be favored over any team right now. But the winless Saints probably have their best chance at a W right here for Week 5 at home. SAINTS.

_________________________

 

[Senor Capper]

Chargers +3 at Saints (54):


The Saints played well in losing by a point in Green Bay but they remain winless a quarter of the way through the season. San Diego rebounded nicely from their embarrassing home loss to Atlanta a week earlier with a dominating win at Kansas City, fueled by forcing 6 KC turnovers. It?s debatable whether the Chargers are as good as their 3-1 record suggests. The Saints are much better than 0-4.

SAINTS.

 

[Senor Capper]

****BEST BET


*New Orleans over San Diego by 21

Who ?Dat? It sure hasn?t been the Saints. So why are we putting the NFC?s only
winless team at the top of our Week 5 plays? Let us count the ways. There, of
course, is the due factor. Bountygate and missing Sean Payton certainly have taken
a toll. Now the Saints? season really is on the line. A 0-5 start is not an option. This
is San Diego?s lone dome stadium game and first time the Chargers are playing on
artificial turf since the Lions rolled them, 38-10, in the second-to-last game of
2011. This is the Sunday night game. The Louisiana Superdome will be rocking.
The Chargers opened 2-0 taking advantage of weak foes ? Oakland and Tennessee.
Then the Chargers were buried at home by the Falcons, 27-3. San Diego was outgained
and had six fewer first downs than Kansas City this past Sunday, but was
able to win by 17 points because the Chiefs committed six turnovers. The three
teams San Diego has beaten have a combined record of 3-9. Despite this year?s 3-
1 mark, San Diego is just 20-20 in September/October under Norv Turner. This
Chargers squad isn?t nearly as good as some of Turner?s previous teams. Drew Brees
is God when playing in the Superdome. The statistics for his last nine home contests
are 236-of-351 (67%) passing for 3,029 yards with a 32-to-7 touchdown-tointerception
ratio. Brees has missed Payton, but still is on pace for 5,400 yards and
40 touchdowns. Defense is where the Saints need to step up. The Saints aren?t ever
going to be a consistent stop unit, but they?ll get hard after Philip Rivers in this
marquee home matchup with their season on the line. Left tackle Jared Gaither is
back to protect Rivers? blind side. Gaither, however, is rusty having played for the
first time this past Sunday. He had missed training camp and preseason along with
the first three games because of a back injury. The Chargers are going to have problems
running unless Ryan Mathews stops fumbling.

NEW ORLEANS 37-16.

 

[Senor Capper]

New Orleans meanwhile is a suprising 0-4 and are currently 3-point favorites while hosting the 3-1 San Diego Chargers this week. Winless teams 0-4 or worse are 11-6 ATS as 3+ point favorites




Chargers at Saints -

The Chargers are 7-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a dog after a straight up win on the road as a favorite. The Saints are 8-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after a straight up loss as a dog. The Chargers are 8-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since December 19, 1993 the week before playing on Monday Night at home. The Chargers are 7-0 OU (9.6 ppg) since November 07, 1993 as a road dog after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average.

 

[ldabdou]

My bad...:toast:

 

[Senor Capper]

Hope I edited correctly IE. :0074

 

[elmer fudd]

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