so miss @ cincy >>>

loophole

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i'm off today and have been drinking my morning coffee trying to find a worthwhile play today but not seeing much i like a lot. yale looks inviting, but six is about my limit and i'm going to take a chance that it may go down just a bit. rider - maybe - but can't say i'd be stunned by a manhatan win.


i never have much luck laying the heavy chalk but i may take a spin with the bearcats tonight. this week huggins had the team strength coach bring pads and a half dozen football players to practice for some half court in-your-face defensive and rebounding drllls and scrimmage. seems the bearcats had been outrebounded in three of their last four games and coach was worried about his team getting soft prior to tournament time, so the pads came out for the first time since the beginning of the season. it didn't matter that cincy had only been outboarded by two or three or that the bearcats had outrebounded 16 of 21 opponents prior to those four games. it mattered that it culminated in cincy's "off" 14 point win at home vs st louis, so huggins' team got to bang this week.


with gale catlett's resignation at w va this week, huggins' name is being tossed around in the press as a possible successor given his mountaineer roots. both sides are being tightlipped, but huggins agent admitted his client would listen to any offer made by w va, and his contract permits defection to the mountaneers. the ties would have to be strong for huggins to leave a national powerhouse to take a pay cut and take over a w va team in complete disarray. but i digress.


so miss is 1-9 on the road, 0-6 in conference, 2-6-1 at. even coach green ackowledges that winning is not a viable option in this game, only attempting to be competitive. besides the st louis game, cincy's home wins have been over ecu by 27. over louisville by 27, over uncc by 13, over depaul by 17. other home wins include over miss st by 34, over richmond by 31, over dayton by 22 and over perdue by 17. team stats suggest that so miss wil be hard pressed to break sixty in this game, and similarly challenged to hold cincy under eighty. i expect the bearcats to hit the boards hard and run off the missed shot. as so miss will be unlikely to reach their 38% road shooting average, bearcats should get plenty of opportunities to do just that. i'll probably give cincy a go at -23- or so.



so miss backers, tell me now or forever hold your peace.
 

Hollywood

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Loophole

I'm with you man! Hate laying the lead, but with Cincy's stats and the national audience tonight, I got to go with you!

Laying the 23+ with Cincy! :D
 

Hoops

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Loop- I think the key for Cincy covering this large of a number is if they concentrate early on getting Mims in foul trouble. If he doesn't play at least 30 minutes, Cincy should win by 20+ rather easily. As poor as So Miss has been this season...some early losses to Ark St and West Ky by wide margins..they have kept their conference losses somewhat respectable...and the two worst defeats were by 22 at Memphis and by 20 at South Florida...both games they were without Mims. But Cincy is obviously the class of the conference and significantly better than either Memphis of South Florida. Probably just a matter if they leave the backdoor open or not? First half play?
 

twofingers

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No reason for Cinncy to put a beating on them here. i look for So Miss to bounce the ball into the floor all night long, run the clock down, and try to keep it respectable.

Very small play on So Misss +23.5
 

loophole

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hoops, hear what you're saying, back door definitely open. what sold me was the hard practices coming off the lackluster game vs st louis. huggins is a smart coach at tourney time and he knows the importance of trying to bring his team to peak this time of year. but you're right if cincy comes out hard then the first half is probably a good play.


i'm also gonna stick with my commitment to play penn until they fail to cover. i got on them after they lost to yale last weekend so i'm gonna ride them out. smaller plays tonight on yale and brown. gl tonight.
 

nole47

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you need to think while looking at lines. " what are the books looking at to get players on both sides?" . who looks at the cincy game and would take so miss. not many. so i figure so missis probly getting 5-7 points more than they should. looking at every game this way has done well for me. i ghot so miss +25. il ook for cincy to win by 17-22
 

nole47

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ill keep my opinions to myself from now on. looks lkike cincy cover this in the first half. consider me a mute from now on.
 

Hoops

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Nice call, Loop...I don't think they make backdoors wide enough for those type of games.
 

loophole

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thanks hoops; it's a beautiful thing when the game you see in your mind actually happens, isn't it?

nole47, if i went mute every time i missed a game i'd be speechless for eternity. always appreciate the feedback. nothing like a friday night sweep to pump you up for saturday. let's find some winners today.
 
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