SOCCER 2009

[Riskbreaker]

Here we go again, German "Bundesliga" starts today. The Bundesliga is more of an action gamble for me to accompany the cold one which accompanies the game, which would be boring without the cold one.

Actually I'm German but I don't like soccer at all. But somehow I managed to win some office pools and a few bucks. Might be my playing style picking "dirty" results like draws or dogs.

I prefer international games, so I'll start slowly with half a unit on each Bundesliga bet.

FRIDAY
VfB Stuttgart (+0.5) - Nothing better than a capable team raining on the parade of last year's champion (Wolfsburg) at the home opener. Last year's "Meistermacher" coach Magath left for Schalke.

which brings me to...


SATURDAY
FC Schalke 04 ML +131 - Schalke visits N?rnberg coming up from Bundesliga 2. Should be a difference in class. Media will be focussing on Magath's Schalke opener.

Bayern Munchen (-0.5) +105 - A difference in class is what I'm hoping for in the Bayern game as well. They visit Hoffenheim who were last year's Cinderella story at the beginning of the season but wore down in second half and came back to earth. Hope they are still there and Bayern opens the season with a bang, quieting the doubters.


SUNDAY
VfL Bochum vs Borussia Monchengladbach Draw +242 - Winner of this weeks "Spot the draw" contest are Bochum and M?nchengladbach. Although they'll both be trying to prove me wrong, matches of teams from Western Germany are often close, dirty and no fun to watch. We'll see...

GL to all the football... err SOCCER junkies out there.
:toast:

 

[Riskbreaker]

Stuttgart is +102

 

[ninosaturnino]

bol riskbreaker!

 

[jng]

VfL Bochum vs Borussia Monchengladbach Draw +242 - Winner of this weeks "Spot the draw"

Great call!! 3-3

Thanks.

J

 

[Riskbreaker]

Thanks jng!

WEDNESDAY - World Cup 2010 Qualifiers

Germany visits Azerbaijan for their 7th World Cup qualification game. They sit proudly on top of their group with 5 wins and 1 draw. Azerbaijan on the other hand shares the bottom with puny Liechtenstein. Might be due to their inability scoring ZERO goals in 5 games...

So I'm sitting in my German house thinking gimme them Germans with whatever handicap u got, I'll play em...

But here's the thing. While Azerbaijan failed to score, they also held their opponents to a total of 5 goals in 5 games. Not bad, and in part thanks to the work of former German national team coach Berti Vogts who is now the national team coach of Azerbaijan. Never a big talker, who might have been hit in the head with a ball too often, but a "Wadenbei?er" bloodhound type of guy who knows his defense.

The goal drought led him to say that scoring a goal vs. the Germans, whom he considers the best team in the world at this point, would be like winning the lottery. I'm not sure if he knows the chances of winning the lottery but they might open up a bit and try to land a freak goal vs. the mighty Germans with a mindset like "We never gonna win this match anyway, let's score one at least this time".

Long story short, I think that due to the fact they only allowed 5 goals until now, the OVER has value here. Taking the Germans with handicap would have the risk that they'll play it conservatively having a lead of two goals, knowing about their opponent's weakness to score. The Azerbaijanian lottery win would also hurt the handicap, the over not at all. After Germany's recent shellacking of another developing soccer nation, I think the over is the safer route here.

Azerbaijan/Germany OVER 3 & 3.5 -101 1 unit

 

[ninosaturnino]

really like the analysis, gl today...

 

[Riskbreaker]

thanks anyways nino, guess they shut it down for real after they got their 2-0 lead...

BUNDESLIGA 1 - WEEK 2

The way I love this card, I'll end up 0-4 (sticking to half a unit for the time being). Week 2 with the over-exaggerated lines following first week's results lets us dog bettors rejoice. Especially in soccer with its low scoring results, diversity is built-in and catches up sooner or later. Hope it starts as soon as tomorrow.

Freiburg +659
Last time I checked Stuttgart lost (game 1 and their best striker) and Freiburg held championship contender Hamburg to a draw. I've seen bigger "surprises" than this one...

Eintracht Frankfurt vs N?rnberg Draw +255
This week's likely candidate for a draw should be the matchup between Frankfurt and N?rnberg. It's hard to argument for a draw in sports, so I won't and just say that this matchup should be closer than last week's results might suggest.

FC K?ln +0.5 +113
K?ln hosts Wolfsburg for our new version of a "sunday night" game. Home opener for K?ln and Wolfsburg popped the W cherry last week. Hoping K?ln toughs it out, a draw would be enough.

Hertha BSC Berlin +203
I actually like this one a lot! Berlin visits the annual rollercoaster team between Bundesliga 1 and 2, M?nchengladbach. While Gladbach is just happy to be here this year before dropping down again, Berlin should make sure they take 3 points back to the capital.

GL!

 

[Riskbreaker]

3-6 -0.36 units

WEEK 4

Hit all (2) draws til now, below are the next candidates who might spoil the fun.

Bayern M?nchen vs VfL Wolfsburg Draw +308
Top teams, which both of them are, tend to agree that a point split is OK if the score is tied 70 minutes into the game. Hope it's tied at that point. Draw line is high because public and oddsmakers eagerly await the first Bayern win.

Hertha BSC Berlin vs SV Werder Bremen Draw +258
Berlin games in the Bundesliga are somewhat low scoring. A draw like 0-0 or 1-1 is due.

Eintracht Frankfurt +202
Don't get why Frankfurt is not favored over Dortmund at home. Reverse psychology bet.

N?rnberg +677
FC K?ln +823
Two moneyline shockers to finish it. I even like the K?ln one more. Last season they pulled it off and won on Hamburg's turf. This year they got Podolski back (who missed the first game away, which they lost closely). Why not get the first win away this season.

GL

 

[ninosaturnino]

Bayern -130 at home is begging for money IMO too! i do like the over there...BOL today bro!

 

[Riskbreaker]

3-11 -2.86 units

INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLIES

GERMANY -0.5 -119 1 unit

Today's game is not about Ballack or Drogba missing, it's about missing a quiet guy in national team keeper Enke. After years of depression hidden from the public he committed suicide last week and shocked the whole country.

The planned game of the national team on Saturday got canceled and there was a nationally televised ceremony on Sunday morning.

I expect the Germans to desperately try winning this one in his honor, gesturing towards the sky after each goal.

GL

 

[kickserv]

Good analysis Risk, I think that makes sense. I myself don't like to bet on "exhibition games" but I may take a shot on Germany. Best of luck to ya:SIB

 

[Zerwas]

Germany scored already! 1:0