Soccer Experiments Week 3: Week of Aug 22nd

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good finish to last week:

recap from last week's soccer picks:
5 - 1 = +9.12 units!!!!

ML's : 2 - 1 = +2.56 units
parlays: 3 - 0 = +6.56 units
__________________________________
updated YTD soccer 2003:

parlays: 3 - 3 = +0.56 units
ml's : 5 - 3 = -0.11 units

8 - 6 = +0.45 units

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Scottish picks:

looking ahead we have:

1) 23/08/03 Rangers - - - Hibernian
HUGE moneyline for Glasgow Rangers

2) 23/08/03 Partick Thistle - - - Celtic
be careful of this game....will do more research.

3) 23/08/03 Motherwell - - - Kilmarnock
Motherwell NOT on the road so we will PASS on this game.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

English Premier:

1) arsenal tracker:

Date Home Team H - A Away Team

16/08/03 Arsenal - - - Everton (2 -1 WINNER)
23/08/03 Middlesbrough - - - Arsenal
26/08/03 Arsenal - - - Aston Villa (bet HUGE)
30/08/03 Manchester City - - - Arsenal
13/09/03 Arsenal - - - Portsmouth (bet HUGE)

2) manchester U vs newcastle

As far as Manchester United are concerned, this game could hardly go any better than last season's trip to St James' Park. They went there in the midst of a run of games that could have made their season or broken it, while the Magpies had only lost one match at home all season and were looking to avenge a 5-3 defeat at Old Trafford. The home side were blown away in a 6-2 defeat that signalled the Reds' title intentions and ended Newcastle's championships hopes.

Revenge will be the desired dish of the day for the Geordies this time around, especially as they look for a better start to the campaign than they got last year, which probably ended up costing them a chance of pushing United and Arsenal all the way in the title race. A key to that will be if Sir Bobby Robson can bring more defensive solidarity to the team, something that Andy O'Brien will hope to provide.

He admitted that the visit of United is a crucial game: "It will be a true test of our credentials on Saturday. They are a difficult proposition home or away, but now is as good a time as any to be playing them.

"We just have to stem the flow of goals because last season we conceded too many, although on their day they are very difficult to stop. They play at a very high tempo and they have very good players and, although we respect that to a certain extent, we've our own very good players too."

As for the Champions' defence, Mikael Silvestre is likely to line up alongside Rio Ferdinand once again, and claims that they make a good partnership: "I get on very well with Rio," he said. "Neither of us is better at marking than the other, or better on the ball than the other. We have the same body language on the pitch, we are both responsible for marking and generally we do the same job.

"If any team is to be successful, you need to be strong in central positions, defence, midfield and attack. Overall I feel this squad is stronger than it has been in the past. We have signed some good young players who have plenty of quality and we are feeling good at the moment."

All eyes will be on Cristiano Ronaldo if he is given the chance to repeat his stunning cameo against Bolton. United boss Sir Alex Ferguson is extremely unlikely to throw him straight into the starting line-up for such a big game so early on in his career in England, but if things are not going the visitors' way, it is a great option to have. Equally, Sir Bobby Robson will probably continue to leave Jermaine Jenas on the bench and keep the pressure off his talented youngster.

Both of these teams will be desperate not to lose any ground on their title rivals even at this early stage of the season, so this game promises to be a close encounter, certainly more so than either of last year's matches. The deciding factor between the two will probably only be which team has clicked into gear more quickly than the other, as it will be in the title race.

Neither manager will be expecting another eight goals in the televised early kick-off game but the attackers are likely to have the final say in what should be another cracker on Tyneside.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION A: SOCCER PREDICTIONS
I'm trying out a new system for the first time this season, these are JUST tracked and are NOT bet on.

ENG PREMIER:

23/08 INFO Wolverhampton - Charlton (PASS)
23/08 INFO Bolton - Blackburn (DRAW and UNDER 2)
PASS, couldn't find a nice line.

23/08 INFO Chelsea - Leicester (PASS)
23/08 INFO Everton (PTC -0.5 -110 ) - Fulham
23/08 INFO Manchester_C - Portsmouth (PASS)
23/08 INFO Middlesbr - Arsenal (PTC-0.5 +110 )
23/08 INFO Newcastle - Man_Utd (PASS)
23/08 INFO Southampton - Birmingham (PASS)
23/08 INFO Aston_Villa - Liverpool (PASS)
23/08 INFO Tottenham - Leeds (PASS)
26/08 INFO Birmingham - Chelsea (PTC)
26/08 INFO Charlton - Everton (PASS)
26/08 INFO Leeds - Southampton (PASS)
26/08 INFO Leicester - Middlesbr (PTC)
26/08 INFO Portsmouth - Bolton (PASS)
26/08 INFO Arsenal (PTC - 2 unit play) - Aston_Villa

27/08 INFO Man_Utd(PTC - 2 unit play) - Wolverhampton
27/08 INFO Blackburn - Manchester_C (PASS)
27/08 INFO Fulham (PTC) - Newcastle
27/08 INFO Liverpool(PTC - 3 unit play) - Tottenham

recap:
13:00 FT Newcastle United 1 : 2 Manchester Utd
16:00 FT Bolton Wanderers 2 : 2 Blackburn Rovers
16:00 FT Everton 3 : 1 Fulham WINNER
16:00 FT Tottenham Hotspur 2 : 1 Leeds United
16:00 FT Wolves 0 : 4 Charlton Athletic
16:00 FT Southampton 0 : 0 Birmingham
16:00 FT Manchester City 1 : 1 Portsmouth
16:00 FT Chelsea 2 : 1 Leicester City WINNER
FT Aston Villa 0 - 0 Liverpool
FT Middlesbrough 0 - 4 Arsenal WINNER
27/08 Arsenal - Aston_Villa 2 : 0
27/08 Liverpool - Tottenham 0 : 0 LOSER -3.45U
27/08 Man_Utd - Wolverhampton 1 : 0 2 unit winner
26/08 Leeds - Southampton 0 : 0
26/08 Portsmouth - Bolton 4 : 0
26/08 Charlton - Everton 2 : 2
26/08 Leicester - Middlesbr 0 : 0

Eng premier tracking record: 6 - 9 = - 3.02 units

will update predictions for each league as the week progresses.....hell, i may even get em done by tonite....

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION A: SOCCER PREDICTIONS

french 1st div:

23/08 INFO Strasbourg (PTC-0.5 +100 ) - Lens
23/08 INFO Rennes - Guingamp (PASS)
23/08 INFO PSG - Monaco (PASS)
23/08 INFO Nice (PTC-1 +105 ) - Ajaccio
23/08 INFO Nantes - Le_Mans (PASS)
23/08 INFO Marseille (PTC -1 -105 ) - Sochaux
23/08 INFO Lyon - Toulouse (PASS)
23/08 INFO Lille (PTC - 2 unit play-1 -125 ) - Metz
23/08 INFO Bordeaux - Auxerre (PASS)
23/08 INFO Bastia - Montpellier (PASS)

French league tracked record: 4 - 3 = +0.52 units

FT Bordeaux 2 - 0 Auxerre

FT Bastia 1 - 0 Montpellier

FT Lille 1 - 1 Metz 2 unit LOSS

FT Lyon 0 - 0 Toulouse

FT Marseille 2 - 0 Sochaux WINNER

FT Nantes 1 - 0 Le Mans

FT Nice 2 - 2 Ajaccio LOSS

FT Rennes 0 - 0 Guingamp

FT Strasbourg 0 - 1 Lens LOSS

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION A: SOCCER PREDICTIONS

German:

23/08 INFO Bochum - Leverkusen (PASS)
23/08 INFO Hamburger_SV - Bayern_Munich (PTC-118)
23/08 INFO Munich_1860 - Wolfsburg (PASS)
23/08 INFO FC_Cologne - Dortmund (PASS)
23/08 INFO Werder_Bremen (PTC - 2 unit play+120) - Schalke
23/08 INFO Stuttgart - Kaiserslautern (PASS)
23/08 INFO Freiburg - Borussia_MGB (PASS)
23/08 INFO Frankfurt - Hertha (PASS)
23/08 INFO Hannover(PTC) - Hansa_Rostock

recap:
15:30 FT Freiburg 4 : 1 Borussia M.
15:30 FT Cologne 1 : 0 Borussia D.
15:30 FT 1860 Munchen 1 : 0 Wolfsburg
15:30 FT Bochum 1 : 0 Bayer
15:30 FT Werder 4 : 1 Schalke WINNER 2 units
15:30 FT Stuttgart 2 : 0 Kaiserslautern
15:30 FT Eintracht Frankfurt 0 : 0 Hertha
Hamburger SV 0 - 2 Bayern Munich WINNER

german league tracked record: 5 - 2 = +3.40 units

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION A: SOCCER PREDICTIONS

Belgian:

NEXT FIXTURES
22/08 INFO Heusden - Antwerp (PASS)
23/08 INFO Lokeren - Beveren (PASS)
23/08 INFO Club_Brugge (PTC - 2 unit play -2 +111 / ML -500 )
vs- LaLouviere
23/08 INFO Westerlo - AA_Gent (PASS)
23/08 INFO Anderlecht (PTC - 2 unit play -1.5 -125 ) vs- Sint_Truiden
23/08 INFO Standard - Mons (PASS)
23/08 INFO Mouscron - Lierse (PASS)
24/08 INFO GBA (PTC pk +105 )- Genk
24/08 INFO Charleroi - Cercle_Brugge (PASS)

belgian league tracked record: 2 - 4 = - 3.55 units

FT Anderlecht 3 - 0 Sint-Truiden 2 unit winner

FT Club Brugge 3 - 3 La Louviere
unbelievable????? would have taken a -7.00 unit HIT!!!!

FT Lokeren 1 - 2 Beveren

FT Mouscron 1 - 1 Lierse

FT Standard Liege 4 - 0 Mons-Bergen

FT Westerlo 2 - 2 AA Gent
FT Charleroi 0 - 0 Cercle Bruges
FT Germinal Beerschot 2 - 2 Racing Genk WINNER

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION A: PREDICTIONS

SCOTTISH (becoming my FAVE league....)

NEXT FIXTURES

23/08 INFO Motherwell - Kilmarnock (PASS)

23/08 INFO Aberdeen(PICK TO COVER-0.5 -118 ) - Dunfermline

23/08 INFO Hearts - Dundee.U (PASS)

23/08 INFO Dundee_FC(PICK TO COVER -0.5 -111 ) - Livingston

23/08 INFO Partick_Th - Celtic (PICK TO COVER - 2 unit play -500 ML)
and PREDICTING A SHUTOUT BY CELTIC.

23/08 INFO Rangers(PTC - 2 unit play -500 ML) - Hibernian

recap:
13:30 FT Partick Thistle 1 : 2 Celtic 2 unit winner
16:00 FT Rangers 5 : 2 Hibernian 2 unit winner
16:00 FT Motherwell 2 : 1 Kilmarnock
16:00 FT Hearts 3 : 0 Dundee United
16:00 FT Dundee 2 : 1 Livingston Winner
16:00 FT Aberdeen 1 : 2 Dunfermline LOSS



scottish premier tracking record: 7 - 2 = +9.67 units

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION A: PREDICTIONS

austrian league:

NEXT FIXTURES
23/08 INFO Sturm_Graz - W?stenrot (PASS)
23/08 INFO Mattersburg - Rapid (PASS)
23/08 INFO Kaernten - Pasching (PASS)
23/08 INFO Bregenz - GAK (PASS)
23/08 INFO Aust.Vienna - Admira (PASS)

Austrian league tracked record: 2 - 0 = +4.00 units

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION A: PREDICTIONS

Norwegian league:

24/08 INFO Aalesund - Lyn (PASS)
24/08 INFO Valerenga - Odd_Grenland (PASS)

25/08 INFO Brann (PTC+120) - Sogndal WINNER

24/08 INFO Rosenborg - Viking (PASS)
24/08 INFO Stabaek - Molde (PASS)
24/08 INFO Bryne (PTC+110)- BodoGlimt
24/08 INFO Tromso - Lillestrom (PTC+140)

Norwegian tracking record: 1 - 0 = +1.00 units

FT Aalesund 2 - 0 Lyn

FT Bryne 0 - 2 Bodo/Glimt LOSS

FT Stabaek 1 - 1 Molde

FT Tromso 2 - 0 Lillestrom LOSS

FT Valerenga Oslo 0 - 3 Odd Grenland

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION A: PREDICTIONS

Turkey:


NEXT FIXTURES
24/08 INFO Konyaspor - Diyarbakirspor (PASS)
24/08 INFO Besiktas (PTC -0.5 -400 ) - Ankaragucu
24/08 INFO G.Birligi - G.Antep (PASS)
24/08 INFO Adanaspor - Trabzonspor (PTC pk -160 )
24/08 INFO Sebatspor - Istanbulspor (PASS)
24/08 INFO Samsunspor - Denizlispor (PASS)
24/08 INFO Fenerbahce - Elazigspor (PASS)
24/08 INFO Rizespor - Malatyaspor (PASS)
24/08 INFO Bursaspor - Galatasaray (PASS)

Turley league tracked record: 2 - 0 +4.00 units

FT Sebatspor 1 - 3 Istanbulspor

FT Adanaspor 0 - 1 Trabzonspor WINNER

FT Bursaspor 2 - 2 Galatasaray

FT Rizespor 2 - 1 Malatyaspor

FT Fenerbahce 7 - 1 Elazigspor

FT Besiktas 3 - 0 Ankaragucu WINNER

FT Genclerbirligi 1 - 0 Gaziantepspor

FT Konyaspor 3 - 1 Diyarbakirspor

FT Samsunspor 2 - 1 Denizlispor

 

[Nick Douglas]

TV,

What are good sites for info on leagues like Bundesliga, Serie A, Spanish Primera Liga, etc?

Thanks and Good luck.

Nick

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

hi nick, thanks for the question:

I'm basically a stats man so these are the sites that i use:

1) home / away stats for a variety of international soccer leagues

2) past history of teams

3) soccerbot predictions
I hardly use this one...haven't tracked it in over a year...this site tries to predict the outcome of soccer matches....

4) tracks money won if you had bet on w/ l / t for soccer teams

5) live soccer scores
this is what i suse to keep track of all my soccer plays.

hope this helps.

T-Vig

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

LESSON 1: always ease up on your units in the first two weeks of the season.

LESSON 2: remember, top echelon teams WILL NOT win a high % of their away games....this is a great chance to grab that +0.5 or +1.5 (at close to even money) home dawg, especially against MAN U and Arsenal on the road.

example:

last year, manchester U was the top team in the division YET had an away record of won 9, lost 6, tied 4

that means they only won 9 away games and the other 10 away games they didn't even cover.
Being a higher echelon team you'd have to lay some juice on them as faves on the road to win everytime.

using simple basic math:

MAN U win 9 games = +9.00 units

for the sake of argument the 10 games they don't cover:
you'd be out about - 12.50 units (because you'd have to lay -0.5
-125 with THIS team EVEN on the road.)

therefore a loss of about -3.50 units if you had bet on them to WIN every away game.

now the trick is up to you to find out which games the HUGE home dawgs are gonna WIN against supposedly "superior teams" such as Man U.

and if you feel real lucky, you may wanna bet home dawg ML 's against MAN U while they're on the road.....that could be something.

good luck everyone.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

I can remember telling my co-worker last year that i hated to bet soccer because there was a lesser chance of you winning with 3 outcomes to a game....because in most other sports you either WIN or LOSE you have a 50 / 50 chance of winning. In soccer you breakdown your chances of winning if you bet the team to
WIN 33% / LOSE 33% / TIE 33%

you have a better chance winning using your city's sports lottery.....(rollseyes)

But looking further into soccer if you pick and choose your spots, it CAN be a profitable sport.

Wish we had more people capping these leagues....

imagine parlaying 7 of the best soccer teams in the world and they win on more than ONE occasion during the season.

i think that's worth looking into.....you just have to educate yourself, sift out the good teams in all the international leagues...

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION B: Predicting the correct scores of games
(for tracking purposes)

last year i hit about 2 of these bets and made a small provit and then i got busy with my wedding and my honeymoon and all that stuff......

Tracing Correct score picks YTD: 0 - 6 = - 6.00 units

remember, if we hit even ONE out of 4 wagers we get back about 2 units....

- will have this week's 2 games sometime in the week when the lines are up, most likely it'll be 2 English Premier games....

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

SECTION C: TORONTO - VIGILANTE'S regular picks
( these are the picks i actually have money on....!!!)

Picks will be up once the lines are up in the week.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

MY PICKS:

Scottish League
1) Rangers -1.5 -118 ( 2 units)

2) Rangers - 500 (1/2 unit) :nono:

BOTH WINNERS

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

3) parlaying celtic and rangers to win again.....

winner

 

[Nick Douglas]

Looking at the way Bremen is spanking Schalke, maybe you should consider putting some real scratch on FC Bayern. Nice pick on that one. Good luck.