Soccer Picks for 8/18-8/20

flapjack

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Getting this down quick as it starts in a few minutes:

Germany
Nuremberg ML +105

50 to win 52

Mog. is awful away from home.
 

flapjack

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1 for 1 on the weekend. A good start.

The rest of the weekend's plays:

France:
O/U
Lemans U2 -120 50 to win 41
Auxerre O2 Ev 50 to win 50
St Etienne U2 -120 50 to win 41
Lens O2 -130 50 to win 38
Bordeaux U2 -120 60 to win 50
Sides
Lille Pk +110 50 to win 55
Lille is on fire, they have a bad history playing in Paris but I'll take the team playing better right now at really good odds. France seems to be seeing more goals this year. Taking the reliable under machines from last year LeMans, St Et, Bord and mixing in some teams that have scored and been scored on quite a bit so far at O2.

Germany
Breman ML -155 156 to win 100
Breman -1 Ev 50 to win 50
Breman O3 -125 63 to win 50
Hamburg -105 30 to win 28
Aachen U2 1/2 -105 30 to win 28
Stiking with the hot team. Home opener for Breman and no reason to suspect the goals wont come in bunches as usual for Breman.

England:
O/U
W Ham O2 -140 30 to win 21
Chelsea U 2 1/2 +120 30 to win 36
Sides
Liverpool -1 +110 50 to win 55
Shef United O2 -150 75 to win 50
W Ham ML -105 53 to win 50
Reading Pk -135 68 to win 50
Reading ML +160 50 to win 80

W Ham scored alot last year, and should TCB at home vs crappy Charlton. Liverpool at home should be too muc for Shef United and I really like Reading - great O and Middlesbourgh's D is not so hot. 6 straight unders in games between Chelsea and Man City.
 

IX_Bender

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Nice + money winner to start the weekend.

Ive done my homework for the German and EPL without much ado. Looks like a total PASS for me in the Bundes unless some serious tangible info comes out.

As for the Premier, its still my most hated league to bet on, not to watch. Looks like my money will only be on one game Saturday and youve already played it at a better price than otb right now!

Playing Reading +149
 

flapjack

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So far so good. That Reading line really dropped through out the week. Started at +160 and was down to +120 by last night. Don't know what it ened up at at game time.

Adding another England game - 15 minutes to kickoff:
Bolton Pk -115 50 to win 43
 

flapjack

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The day seems to going about as well as I could have hoped - +271 with Bolton up 2-0. Pressing my afternoon French O/U's a little:

Heavying up on:
St Et. U2 30 to win 25 (80 to win 66 total)
Lens O2 30 to win 23 (80 to win 61 total)
LeMans U2 30 to win 25 (80 to win 66 total)
 

flapjack

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what do you think of lens at 2.5 +129

I'm not sure. I like being on even #'s even if the odds are much worse. I'd rather take a chance of pushing and winning less than needing 3 goals. But I guess it comes down to personal preference as far as risk and reward. 2.5 is higher risk, higher reward.
 

flapjack

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Good start for the weekend sitting at +300.

Adding another for tomorrow:
Man City +1.5 -105 53 to win 50
With 6 straight unders between them and Chelsea, gotta like getting the goal and a half.
 

flapjack

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One last game I'm going to heavy up on:
France
Bord. U2 -120 60 to win 50 (120 to win 100 total)
Too much on the line for both these teams to risk much. Both are incredibley hard to score on and their games against each last year were 1-1 and 0-0. In fact there have been only a couple overs between these 2 teams the last 10 or so times they've played.

Also taking U2/Draw 25 to win 100 parlay in the game.
 

IX_Bender

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Two more plays. Another big dog and a total due to missing strikers. Someone reminded me that even though its early in the season - there have been only 5 outright winners by road teams in the Argentina league. I then reminded them that I kick ass in south america, so we'll see.

My plays are all for the same regardless of odds or situation, just press forward and see what happens.


Also its tough with THREE games on TV to watch over the next three hours. Lyon/Bordeaux, RiverPlate/Racing, and Santos/Vasco. However, I cant find any value in ANY of those sides or totals. Still keeping tabs on one more game today, but its not qualified as a play as of now.

STRAIGHT BETRisking:
:08/20/2006@11:30 AM [28680] TOTAL u2?-135 (GODOY CRUZ vrs QUILMES)

placed by:ONLINE -1on:08/20/2006@11:11 AMSTRAIGHT BETRisking:xxxTo Win:xxxxON:08/20/2006@11:30 AM [28671] GIMNASIA LA PLATA +220 - SOC
 

IX_Bender

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both draws lost, but both could have easily cashed.
Split on the Argentina games underestimating juju.

One last play this week down south. Who wants to eat chimichongas all year? Vote for Summer.

Mexico - 1st Division Soccer Pachuca/Chivas 20-August-2006 3:05 PM PST Total Points OVER 2.5 for Game -110 Risking xxxto Win xxx USD
 

flapjack

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I'm done for the week, wish I would have stopped a day ealier given my crappy Sunday results. 2 Week updated totals:

France:
Sides: 0-1-3 -192
O/U: 3-3-2 -54

Germany:
Sides: 3-2-1 +215
O/U: 2-1-0 +113

England:
Sides: 4-2-2 +85
O/U: 1-0-1 -9

Parlays:
0-1 -25


Total: +133
 
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