Soccer picks: Week of Aug 1st

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good start to the soccer betting last week....database was bang on with their selections....

YTD: 4 - 3 - 2 = + 1.79 units


Chile - Primera Soccer - Sun 7/30
1) Universidad de Chile / Huachipato OVER 3 +113
(1/2 unit) (PENDING)

Russian - Vyshaya Liga Soccer - Mon 7/31

4) Spartak Nalchik pk +112 (1/2 unit)
the recent promoted Nalchick teams is already in 1st place and looking well...rostov 1-3-1 at home....looks like they're going to be the whipping boys at home.
(PENDING)

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Scotland ? Premier League Soccer

2006 Record: 0 - 1 - 1 = - 0.54 units

Sides: 0 - 1 - 1 = - 0.54 units
Totals: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units


1) Inverness CT +0.5 +105 ( 1/2 unit)
aberdeen have never been a good home tean covering the spread when favouerd the last 2 seaosns...inverness EXCELLENT road team last year...let's see if they'll build on that.

Aberdeen 1 - 1 Inverness C.T. = winner

2) Dunfermline +0.5 -125 (1/2 unit)
Falkirk was VERY poor as a home fave last season...let's see if this trend continues...

Falkirk 1 - 0 Dunfermline = loser

3) Motherwell pk +103 ( 1/2 unit)
St.Mirren just recently promoted...

St. Mirren 2 - 0 Motherwell = loser

not a good start the the scottish season. :shrug:

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Russian - Vyshaya Liga Soccer

2006 Record: 2 - 1 - 1 = +0.50 units

Sides: 2 - 1 - 1 = +0.50 units
Totals: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Brazil - Serie A Soccer

2006 Record: 1 - 0 - 0 = +1.00 units

Sides: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units
Totals: 1 - 0 - 0 = +1.00 units

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Irish Soccer

2006 Record: 1 - 0 - 0 = +1.00 units

Sides: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units
Totals: 1 - 0 - 0 = +1.00 units

notes:

Drogheda United o/u on the road is now 1 - 8

Cork City o/u on the road is 1 - 7

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Norway - Tippeligaen Soccer

2006 Record: 1 - 0 - 0 = +1.00 units

Sides: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units
Totals: 1 - 0 - 0 = +1.00 units
__________________________________

Norway - 1 Divisjon Socce

2006 Record: 0 - 1 - 0 = -1.17 units

Sides: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units
Totals: 0 -1 - 0 = -1.17 units

 

[flapjack]

good start to the soccer betting last week....database was bang on with their selections....

YTD: 4 - 3 - 2 = + 1.79 units

Congrats on the good start. I was wondering what "database" was. Was this something you compile or a program or service? Would love to know.

 

[Wells]

What betting site(s) do you use. I can't get Brazillina, Chillean league.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

What betting site(s) do you use. I can't get Brazillina, Chillean league.

PinnacleSports, they have EVERY soccer league imaginable....and a class book.

I gave them intelligent feedback about their garbage moneyline soccer lines...and POOF, i haven't seen them since...

they offer -0.5 and +0.5 lines...and totals....
but one thing: in the France league where defense is number 1, they'll rape you on totals by setting the price around -170...
...but that's a small price to pay when you know the game has a 85% chance of going under 2.5 goals.

good luck.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Congrats on the good start. I was wondering what "database" was. Was this something you compile or a program or service? Would love to know.

i have 3 major websites i use when i compile data....they do it all for me, and it's free....you just have to know where to look....you can google: soccer totals over under and see what you can get.

been using these databases for 3 years now, and they're money....they help me with totals and sides.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Chile - Primera Soccer - Sun 7/30
1) Universidad de Chile / Huachipato OVER 3 +113
(1/2 unit) (PENDING)

Russian - Vyshaya Liga Soccer - Mon 7/31

4) Spartak Nalchik pk +112 (1/2 unit)
the recent promoted Nalchick teams is already in 1st place and looking well...rostov 1-3-1 at home....looks like they're going to be the whipping boys at home.
(PENDING)

Universidad de Chile 1 : Huachipato 1 = loser

Rostov 2 - 1 Spartak Nalchik = loser

updated: YTD: 4 - 5 - 2 = + 0.79 units

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Chile - Primera Soccer

2006 Record: 0 - 1 - 0 = - 0.50 units

Sides: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units
Totals: 0 - 1 - 0 = - 0.50 units

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

this is it, my bread and butter league, i expect to make about another 40 units or more on these totals this season...if everything stays the same as it has been the last 3 years...

France - Ligue 1 Soccer

2006 Record: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units

Sides: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units
Totals: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units

going half units on all totals to start this week:

France - Ligue 1 Soccer - Fri 8/4

1) Nantes Atlantique / Olympique Lyonnais
UNDER 2 and 2.5 -131

France - Ligue 1 Soccer - Sat 8/5

2) Stade Rennais / OSC Lille UNDER 2 -118

3) AJ Auxerre / Valenciennes UNDER 2 and 2.5 -122

4) Girondins Bordeaux / Toulouse UNDER 2 and 2.5 -123

5) Le Mans / Nice UNDER 2 -113

6) RC Lens / Troyes UNDER 2 and 2.5 -129

7) Paris St.-Germain / Lorient UNDER 2 and 2.5 -126

8) St. Etienne / Sochaux UNDER 2 and 2.5 -131

9) Sedan / Olympique Marseille UNDER 2 -114

10) Nancy / A.S Monaco (line pending)
_________________________________

after the 4th week, we should get a GOOD idea of who will be the 3-4 UNDER teams this season.....and then you hammer them until the 1st week of April.

top 4 under teams last 3 seasons:

French Ligue 1 - 05/06 = went 78 more games UNDER than over
French Ligue 1 - 04/05 = went 67 more game UNDER than over
French Ligue 1 - 03/04 = went 67 more games UNDER than over

this trend SHOULD not end this season...as the LEAGUE % for unders of ALL teams has been at 60 - 64% the last 3 seasons....

it's go time.

 

[flapjack]

this is it, my bread and butter league, i expect to make about another 40 units or more on these totals this season...if everything stays the same as it has been the last 3 years...

France - Ligue 1 Soccer

2006 Record: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units

Sides: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units
Totals: 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.00 units

going half units on all totals to start this week:

France - Ligue 1 Soccer - Fri 8/4

1) Nantes Atlantique / Olympique Lyonnais
UNDER 2 and 2.5 -131

France - Ligue 1 Soccer - Sat 8/5

2) Stade Rennais / OSC Lille UNDER 2 -118

3) AJ Auxerre / Valenciennes UNDER 2 and 2.5 -122

4) Girondins Bordeaux / Toulouse UNDER 2 and 2.5 -123

5) Le Mans / Nice UNDER 2 -113

6) RC Lens / Troyes UNDER 2 and 2.5 -129

7) Paris St.-Germain / Lorient UNDER 2 and 2.5 -126

8) St. Etienne / Sochaux UNDER 2 and 2.5 -131

9) Sedan / Olympique Marseille UNDER 2 -114

10) Nancy / A.S Monaco (line pending)
_________________________________

after the 4th week, we should get a GOOD idea of who will be the 3-4 UNDER teams this season.....and then you hammer them until the 1st week of April.

top 4 under teams last 3 seasons:

French Ligue 1 - 05/06 = went 78 more games UNDER than over
French Ligue 1 - 04/05 = went 67 more game UNDER than over
French Ligue 1 - 03/04 = went 67 more games UNDER than over

this trend SHOULD not end this season...as the LEAGUE % for unders of ALL teams has been at 60 - 64% the last 3 seasons....

it's go time.

Been looking forward to the Ligue 1 too. The French were really good to me last year taking the unders. As long as you stayed away from Rennes those unders seemed to hit every time - at least in the first half of the season. Then my books started putting out horrible odds - U2 -200+ and I started to lose more $'s than win.

I know officials were meeting late in the season last year to talk about how to get more scoring in the league. Never heard anything come of it, so I'm assuming there's no rules changes this year. I think I might dump my whole account on Bord-Toul under. 2 of my favorite under teams from last year.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

.

I think I might dump my whole account on Bord-Toul under. 2 of my favorite under teams from last year.

be careful with betting the whole account...wait about 4 weeks until the dust clears and then you'll have a better look at the 3-4 teams that will be the top under teams....

plenty of time to make money.

and totals of 2 make me nervous...not alot of room for error.....that's why after 4 weeks...i tend to buy the extra half goal as ALOT of my bets landed on the 2 goals last year and pushed...i don't mind paying -170 for a total when it's around an 85% predicted under.

 

[DeadPrez]

so t-v, are you playing all of those unders because the previous years percentages call for that or was it your databases numbers, in which case I guess it would just be a coincidence.

also, I see that you are betting on all kinds of national leagues, so am I correct in assuming that you wager on the bigger leagues as well...premiership, la liga, italian serie A, german bundesliga?? If so I look forward to your feedback on that when the time comes.

and finally, is it possible to watch these smaller circuit games on television? Do you have some special package up there or are you basically just viewing the games they show on Fox Soccer channel and GolTV? I know about the premier league package.

thanks in advance and good luck with your plays

 

[flapjack]

be careful with betting the whole account...wait about 4 weeks until the dust clears and then you'll have a better look at the 3-4 teams that will be the top under teams....

plenty of time to make money.

and totals of 2 make me nervous...not alot of room for error.....that's why after 4 weeks...i tend to buy the extra half goal as ALOT of my bets landed on the 2 goals last year and pushed...i don't mind paying -170 for a total when it's around an 85% predicted under.

I was being a little facetious with that remark, but I loved taking the under on both those teams last year and here they are playing each other the 1st game of the season.

But, I always preferred taking the U2 line. I know it leaves little room for error, but I just hate betting almost 1 to 2 on the 2 1/2 lines. I guess its just a matter of preference of risk.

But, I will say this, I just laid $788 to win $350 on Lyon to win the League. There is simply no way they can lose. None of the other teams are remotely in the same league.

 

[alb]

Am I reading this right....Nantes 1 - 1 Lyon...after 3 minutes?????

Well isn't that a :142hump: way to start the season.

 

[thisisbad]

I pilfered this from another site, hope no one gets mad

For those of us that have milked the <2.5 in France, particularly Ligue 2, the last couple of years the goal posts have changed big time.

The French FA and Canal+ have got tired of this boring football and began a 'Challenge de l'offensive'

This doesn't affect league positions at all, but it is a separate league where two points are awarded for a single goal victory and three points for a victory by two goals or more. This includes teams from the top two divisions, and get this, has 20m Euros in prize money. To put that in perspective winning Ligue 1 is worth 4.2m Euros.

This is a huge incentive, particularly for Ligue 2 teams. Last weekend 5 games went over, 3 were under, and 25 goals were scored. That's a flood compared to the past.

So not only beware of the new rules but make the most of them.

I'm on Chateauroux v Le Havre to go over tonight, and possibly Montpelier-Grenoble as well

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

I pilfered this from another site, hope no one gets mad

For those of us that have milked the <2.5 in France, particularly Ligue 2, the last couple of years the goal posts have changed big time.

The French FA and Canal+ have got tired of this boring football and began a 'Challenge de l'offensive'

This doesn't affect league positions at all, but it is a separate league where two points are awarded for a single goal victory and three points for a victory by two goals or more. This includes teams from the top two divisions, and get this, has 20m Euros in prize money. To put that in perspective winning Ligue 1 is worth 4.2m Euros.

This is a huge incentive, particularly for Ligue 2 teams. Last weekend 5 games went over, 3 were under, and 25 goals were scored. That's a flood compared to the past.

So not only beware of the new rules but make the most of them.

I'm on Chateauroux v Le Havre to go over tonight, and possibly Montpelier-Grenoble as well

thansk for the info and good calls...both games went OVER.