Sold on Pitt, looking for feedback

[Radio]

i have several reasons i really like Pitt a lot in this game, i will list them in this thread but i welcome all views, i am thinking about making this a bigger than usual wager for me,

i hope i am looking objective and not looking for data to back up my conclusion.

Seattle opponents combined 2005-2006 records

106 wins
123 losses

Pitt opponents combined 2005-2006 records

118 - wins
114 - losses

 

[Radio]

Pitt, breakdown a little

Pitt, breakdown a little

19 games
14 different opponents

opponents records

118 - wins
114 - losses

6 opponents with double digit losses
8 opponents with winning records

3 of pitts 5 losses came at home, (home field was not big advantage for pitt)

injuries played big key, pre season injury to #1 RB Staley
week #4 injury to QB Rothlisburger, bettis was hurt for some of the early season

much tougher division, (Cinncinatti, Clevland, Baltimore) for Pitt
much weaker division, (San Fran, Arizona, St. Louis) for Seattle

if i have made mistakes on my numbers please correct me, i did this by hand myself

 

[Radio]

Seattle, breakdown a little

Seattle, breakdown a little

seattle had very weak schedule
14 different opponents this year
10 of their 18 games against teams with losing records.....
4 of their 18 games against teams with 7 or 8 losses

only 4 games against teams with really good records
colts - 14-2 (colts played 2nd string 3 of the 4 quarters)
jaxsonville - 12-5 (seattle lost to them 1st game of season on road)
panthers - 13-6 (panthers had half a team yesterday)
NY Giants - 11-6 (giants missed field goal to beat seattle, at seattle)


their opponents combined 2005-2006 records
106 wins
123 losses

GB - 12 losses
Tenn - 12 losses
SF - 12 losses
Phili - 10 losses
Arizona - 11 losses
Houston - 14 losses
Rams - 10 losses
atlanta - 8 losses
skins - 7 losses
cowboys - 7 losses not exactly a killer schedule......

 

[AR182]

radio,

right now i lean towards pitt, but it has been said all during the playoffs that seattle played a weak schedule....& they still won....

so i wouldn't base my play on seattle's schedule...

good luck.

 

[Radio]

of course i may have made up my mind too early and unconciously be looking for data to support my decision, but a lot of this jumped out when i was reading about the championship games before they were played. i would not have felt as good about denver over seattle even though they were a higher seed. pitts Big, Tall QB helps a lot. seattle may win or cover, of course anything is possible, but i am thinking this should be another SuperBowl blowout for Pitt.

Seattle's 3 losses came on the road, and against good Defensive Teams, (Skins, Jags, Packers?), and most of their other road games were close against inferior talent;

*at Jax, 14-26, (Loss for Seattle)
*at Skins, 17-20 OT, (Loss for Seattle)
*at ST. Louis, 37-31, (st. louis coach out with serious heart trouble i think)
*at Arizona, 33-19, (good win, outdoors, Arizona 5-11 on season)
*at 4-12 San Fran, 27-25, a game they almost lost to maybe the worst team in league 05
*at Phili, 42-0 (mis-leading, No McNabb at QB, No TO at WR, RB injuries, team in turmoil)
*at Tenn, 28-24, (Tenn's record 4-12, yet they came close in this game to beating seattle)
*at GB, 17-23, (Loss for Seattle, game really did not mean much)

Seattle is a pretty good team, and a really good home team, although wins at home vs.
Dallas - 13-10, took a last second fluke interception of dallas and FG as time ticked off
Giants - 24-21, OT, Giants missed an easily makable FG to win, very lucky game for Seattle
Colts - 28-13, Colts had nothing to play for, tradgedy for coach, 2nd string 2nd QTR on
Falcons- 21-18, Micheal Vick was injured week before this game

it just seems that Seattle is very fortunate to be in the Super Bowl. they won't be playing a team using their 4th string RB, nor the best defensive player with a separated shoulder,
nor a team playing their fourth game in a row in 4 weeks for their playoff lives on the road.
pitt has been on the road yes, but detroit is about 1 hour flight from pitt or less i think, and with 2 weeks to rest, this should be a different scenario than a team flying 6 hours, after the 3 previous weeks on a plane to somewhat long road trips like the panthers yesterday.

i am hoping that Seattle's big win over the panthers puts a lot of confidence in Seattle bettors and keeps the line around 3, i just don't think the carolina game at home for seattle was a good test for them. i am thinking the pros may drive the line to 6 or 7 by kick-off, but probably not as that would create a somewhat large middle wouldn't it.

one chance for seattle may be that since they had a weak schedule, they should be very healthy as a team. their coach has won and lost a super bowl.

 

[Radio]

thanks AR 182, all feedback appreciated...

that is a very good point,

i still think their schedule was the luckiest in NFL history, and i am thinking their luck may run out against pitt.


for some reason they seemed to catch people at just the right time.

i remember several years ago when jimmy johnson coached miami and won 1st round at seattle, then got blown out the next week. i'll never forget hearing johnson say how the long plane flight took the legs of his players.

home field for seattle has become a great advantage and road games continue to be a dis-advantage because of the longer than normal travel. but i don't mean to imply that travel has anything to do with the S Bowl, just the nature of what kind of team the nfc is sending to the SB.

 

[Radio]

motivation, and maybe intangibles

motivation, and maybe intangibles

*should be like home game for pitt in detroit
*pitt RB jerome bettis (the bus) last game, he is from detroit
*pitt QB has 2 years under his belt, incredible physical specimen for QB
*pitt had the favored team last year, losing only one reg season game then
QB had bad game in championship against Patriots, they we sick
*bettis retired then QB rothlesberger "begged him out of retirement for one more year
they all knew they had a great team and wanted another shot with this team,
a mulligan
*bill cower is the longest tenured coach in the NFL, lost his first superbowl with pitt in a close game to a very talented cowboys team

 

[socrstud]

TAKE PITT at least on the ML. I could be wrong but thus far I've lost 1 ML game this season 14-1....And my loss was taking Green Bay, on MNF....

 

[Statman02]

don't forget Seattle is 6/3 su.....7/1/1 ats vs Pitt

and as a dog are 4/2 su.....5/0/1 ats vs Pitt

I'll just tell you right now......they have the wrong team favored in this game and Seattle will win it by 3

 

[JCam]

don't forget Seattle is 6/3 su.....7/1/1 ats vs Pitt

Hello Statman..

With all due respect to you the head to head data that you posted above is TOTALLY meaningless because Pittsburgh and Seattle have only met ONCE over the past 6 seasons and that meeting took place in 2003 at Seattle, by the way, Seattle was installed as a 4.5 home favorite and won the game 23-16 with a TD with less than 2 minutes to play.

Personally I think a more telling stat is that Pittsburgh has covered 17 of their last 23 outings ATS when installed as a favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 points.

take care and be well

Jim

 

[Phenom]

Man, seems like everyone and his brother, and his brother's kid, and $50 from Grandma, and unlce Earnie in county jail with a pack of cigarettes, and don't forget the mailman, milkman, cop, fireman, and the little boy with one arm have all thrown down on the Steelers...

They are fast, but hawks are underrated this year...

 

[Statman02]

well a thousand humble pardons for including my totally meaningless stats but as you know there are thousands of different stats one could use to support either side in any game.....and with all due respect whats meaningless for one guy might not be meaningless for another.....I chose to include things that happened back to 1986 if they tend to show a sort of domination by one team over another........you on the other hand might want to look at something that I would consider meaningless.....like going through this years schedule and making excuses for why one team lost or another team won or one that I really dont like which is performance in a certain spread range.......they just don't seem to hold up and I tend to give them short shrift if not ignore them.........anyway I am not basing my Seattle play on ancient history......that's just something I considered......I am using my system of rating games using this years stats of games played by these teams......thats how I came up with the 3........anyway good luck with your Steelers pal......I think you're going to need it

 

[JCam]

Yo Statman....

Whoa there horsie, why come off with the attitude dude? I prefaced my remarks "with all due respect" but apparently you thought I was flaming you or something which was NOT my intention.

I used the word meaningless to illustrate the point that Pittsburgh and Seattle have only faced each other ONCE in the past 6 years and that affair took place in Seattle, I was trying to show that your stat of Seattle holding a 7-1-1 ATS record over Pittsburgh is not valid because the data is out-dated, if the 7-1-1 ATS mark had occurred over the past 5, 6, or 7 years I would consider that was current and thus a decent long term trend.

For example, we know that both teams will play this years Super Bowl after having a bye week, why not research and post what each teams record is following a week of rest?

For the sake of full disclosure Seattle has failed to cover 11 of their last 15 games ATS following a week of rest and 7 of their last 11 loses have taken place away from home.

take care and be well my friend

Jim

 

[Statman02]

sorry JC......did not mean to sound like I had an attitude.......I don't.....to tell the truth I haven't found many trends on this game that I would pay much attention to....I usually only go back 4 or 5 years anyway......Pitt sure seems to go over a lot in the post season....8 of 9 over playoff games since 2002......seattle shows a lot of over trends in their situation also.....maybe over is a good play

 

[JCam]

Hey Statman..

You might be on to something with regard to the OVER, I was looking at that myself, historically speaking 9 of the last 13 Super Bowls have exceeded the posted total and in the previous 9 Super Bowls played in a dome the average total scored points has been a whopping 48.6 points.

take care and be well

Jim

 

[Buck i]

Now were talking guys. If you are going to bet the over then I think you need to bet it now. I think it will go north as the week proceeds. Since the line has only mattered in 8 super bowls I would tend to concentrate on picking the right team. But the line has mattered in the last few. If you are betting the Steelers get the money line now as it is going up. If you are betting Seat, wait, to get the best point value.

I feel that Pitts. is the way to go here as they can win with the run or the pass. When their D smacks Seattle in the mouth I think they will fold like Cinci, Indi and Den!!! Tooooooo Psychical.

Good Luck to All!!

 

[Livin' Large]

Don't overanalyze this one fellas. You have seen enough football during the past 3 weeks to know which team will cover the number. If you still aren't sure, maybe you shouldn't bet the side. Props might be the way to go for you. Good luck!

 

[badjab]

Big play on Pitt! I think we will return to the era of the blowout superbowl. Pitt wins 31-10

 

[Juu3]

TAKE PITT at least on the ML. I could be wrong but thus far I've lost 1 ML game this season 14-1....And my loss was taking Green Bay, on MNF....

Take that advice, and I was suckered in to that to Soc, hell, "Brett Favre Loves MNF" The guy is still a bad ass, no matter how much money I loose with him