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DR STRANGELOVE

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CHICAGO +3? +100 over Green Bay SportsInteraction

This week?s flavor of the week: The Green Bay Packers. Why not? After all, the Packers went into Philadelphia two weeks ago and knocked off the very trendy Eagles before stopping in Atlanta to pulverize the NFC?s top-seeded Falcons by a dominating 48-21. Green Bay?s defense has been strong all season and its level has risen in these playoffs. The Pack suffered many injuries during this campaign but adapted well and with some of their starters back in the line-up, the offence has become increasingly dangerous. The Packers are on a four-game winning streak and are a victory away from a trip to Dallas for this year?s Super Bowl. While most everyone is picking this sexy Green Bay squad to win on Sunday, the Chicago Bears will have something to say about that. This figures to be Green Bay?s toughest playoff test, yet the Packers are favored for the first time this post-season in all places, Soldier Field. Talk about an overreaction. All Chicago has done is win the NFC North, split the season series (which we?ll get to in a moment) and handily defeat a Seattle team that the defending champion Saints could not. This is a solid unit and one that knows this visitor all too well. Green Bay paid a visit here back in late September, as a 3-pt favorite, and departed as 20-17 losers. However, the game that intrigues us more was this year?s final game for both teams. The Packers were in a must-win situation to qualify for these playoffs. Despite the urgency, evidenced by Green Bay being an inflated 11-pt choice in that one, it took until the fourth quarter for the Packers to break a 3-3 deadlock before scoring a game-winning touchdown. The Bears were already locked in as a No. 2 seed and didn?t need to play their regular line-up. However, coach Lovie Smith decided to leave his starters in. Many were puzzled but some are thinking that Lovie was crazy like a fox. Not only did QB Jay Cutler and the rest of his Chicago mates get to witness the Packers at their desperation best, they also were presented an opportunity to play possum by not showing Green Bay their best hand. There is no question that Aaron Rodgers is in peak form right now. However, this is not a fast track like the Georgia Dome. Players alike will tell you that Soldier Field has one of the worst surfaces in this league. That suits the Bears just fine. Not only has Chicago covered six of its past seven on grass, the Bears have the more versatile backfield with Matt Forte (who had 151 combined yards in Week 17), complimented by Chester Taylor and a run defense that was ranked #2, only behind Pittsburgh?s stout group. This figures to be a battle and while Chicago, and particularly Cutler, can be erratic at times, we?re happy to be receiving points on this field with a strong defense and an opponent that matches up well with its familiar rival. Play: Chicago +3? +100 (Risking 2 units).



PITTSBURGH ?3? over N.Y. Jets Pinnacle

Had this game been played before the Jets knocked off the heavily favored Patriots last week, this game would have had the Steelers favored by six or more. Thank you, Patriots. New York?s upset resulted in a reduced rate and one we intend to take full advantage of. While we can?t ignore what the Jets have done to get here, they have not seen a defense quite like this Steelers group. Both New England and Indianapolis were leaky throughout the season and to their credit, the Jets? coaches found ways to control tempos and find enough holes to ultimately come out on top. Don?t expect the same on this day. Pittsburgh?s defense was nothing less than incredible this season. Most notably, the strongest part of their defense is what New York relies mainly upon, that being the ground game. The J-E-T-S love to run the ball and they did it efficiently, gaining an average of 148 yards-per-game, ranking them 4th overall. But if you can?t run, it forces you to pass and as we?ve said time and time again, we really don?t want to rely on Mark Sanchez? arm to win us a game. Sanchez is a maintenance guy at this point of his young career, not a guy whose throwing ability can carry you to victory. Pittsburgh?s run stoppers allowed an average of slightly less than 63 yards per game, one of the lowest totals in league history. To illustrate, the next best unit did not allow two or three or ten yards less per game but a bulky 28 yards per. We saw Pittsburgh?s defense force its will on the Ravens just last week. Baltimore had less than 100 yards of offense heading into the fourth quarter, before finishing with a mere 153 for the game. To make this trip worse for the Jets, the Steelers have not forgotten New York?s recent visit here as the Jets left town with a 22-17 victory. However, in that game, Pittsburgh outgained its visitor by more than 100 yards and the Jets were aided by a rare 97-yard kick return by Brad Smith. In addition, the Steelers were without star safety Troy Polamalu and tight end Heath Miller, both of whom will play this weekend. As odd as it may sound, this game could actually be a letdown spot for the Jets. Nothing mattered more than defeating the Patriots in a playoff game. Now the New Yorkers are being asked to play its fifth road game in six weeks and they will have had one day?s less rest than their host. For the first time this post-season, the Jets will face an opponent that is better on both sides of the ball and the outcome will not be a favorable one. Play: Pittsburgh ?3? (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).



You can also listen to Randall on his syndicated radio show, "Inside the Lines". Sunday mornings between 10:00AM and 12:30PM on The Fan590
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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absolutely dead on analysis.......love the steelers.....

and when two teams as familiar with one another as the bears and packers play in the brutal cold and lousy track that is chicago,you have to figure a relatively low scoring,close battle that won`t be decided until the bitter end...

**cutler willing and the creek don`t rise...

excellent post...
 

saint

Go Heels
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Jan 10, 2002
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Balls Deep
teams that score 40 or more points in a playoff game are 2-18 ATS the following week

:shrug:
 

DR STRANGELOVE

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#1: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5


I got this play late Sunday at Steelers -3 (-120), but since it has moved in all the books to -3.5 I will grade it at the new #. I addition I am adding to my original bet and taking -3.5 Pittsburgh (adding half of my normal bet size). I still really like it at -3.5 and feel that Steelers have a great chance of covering this number. Let?s break this one down:

Those that have read my Divisional matchups analysis last week, know that first I like to compare ?relative-strengths? of teams in the playoffs. This provides a good ?starting? point in determining which team is ?better?. For me the ?key? to handicapping the playoffs, is determining which is the ?better? team, and then analyzing the posted ?line? to determine if it warrants a play or not. Here we go:

Jets O: 22.9 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.7
Variance: +1.2

Jets D: 18.9 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 22.7
Variance: +3.8

Total Variance: +5.0

Just want to point out that Baltimore had a total Variance of +6.2 last week. (+1.2 on offense and +5.0 on defense) I?m bringing this up to show that Pittsburgh faced off against a ?better? Baltimore squad last week and pretty much dominated the whole game statistically (not counting the turn-overs that led to the early Ravens lead)


Steelers O: 23.9 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.1
Variance: +2.8

Steelers D: 15.1 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.4
Variance: +6.3

Total Variance: +9.1

Both teams are above average offensively and way above-average defensively. The difference is that Pittsburgh is significantly better in both metrics, especially on the defensive side. We can conclude that Pittsburgh is a better team than the Jets, since there is a +4.1 difference in relative-variances. That?s a fairly large difference here. Obviously this is the first step, so let?s take a look at a few other ?key? statistics to help strengthen our initial assertion.

I like to look at Yards-Per-Points (YPPT) as a measure of efficiency. On the season the Jets averaged 15.2 YPPT on offense and 15.7 YPPT on defense. Both of these are fairly average. In comparison, the Steelers had 14.3 YPPT on offense and 17.8 YPPT on defense. It?s clear that Pittsburgh is a much more efficient team. Interestingly, Jets? D allowed 14.5 YPPT on the road this season. This defense hasn?t played that well on the road, allowing on average 25 points per game during the regular season and 27.4 ppg in their last 5 roadies (including the playoffs).

Offensively, Jets average 203 PYpg @ 6.5 yards per attempt (#25) and 148 RYpg @ 4.4 yards per rush (#8). Clearly, the Jets are a ?running-team?. They?re going to want to establish the running game early and often, and in all honesty they will have to run the ball to win this game. Here?s where it might be problematic for them: Pittsburgh is the #1 rushing defense in the NFL in both yards per game (63 per game) and yards per rush (3.0). They?ve given up a total of 152 rushing yards in their last 3 games (51 per game) for 2.66 ypr and will ensure that the Jets won?t be able to run the ball in this match-up. Mark Sanchez will have to beat the Steelers with his arm for New York to win this one. The question we must ask, is he capable of doing so? Well, besides being the #1 defense in giving up the fewest rushing yards per attempt, Pittsburgh is also the #1 D in passing yards per attempt, coming in at 6.3. You be the judge. (I?ll get back to this with my thoughts later).

On the other side, Steelers average 225 PYpg @ 8.1 yards per attempt (#2) and 120 RY pg @ 4.1 yards per rush (#18). They are more balanced than the Jets and have a much better passing offense. Jets D though is very good against the pass. They give up 201 passing yards per game @ 6.5 yards per attempt (#6). Their rush D is excellent as well, giving up 90.1 yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush (#3).

All in all we have 2 top defensive units in this one with very good offenses, but Pittsburgh is just better in both areas from the statistical standpoint. Additionally, the Steelers have been much better at stopping the run lately than the Jets. In their last 7 games, Pittsburgh has allowed 409 rushing yards (58 per game) for 3.0 rushing yards per attempt. Jets on the other hand, have allowed 712 rushing yards (102 per game) over the same span for a 3.9 rushing yards per attempt. I feel that this discrepancy is critical, since Steelers run-D has improved in the 2nd half of the season, as the Jets have regressed a bit. As both teams are trying to establish their running games on Sunday, Pittsburgh is the more likely of the two, to have success with a ?balanced? attack. An established running game will allow Roethlisberger more time to find his vertical targets, Wallace and Sanders, as Miller and Ward work the underneath routes. It will be interesting to see how fast the Jets will abandon their ?running? game in this one. I really don?t see them having any success with it, and their best chance would be to attack this Pittsburgh defense via the pass. Sanchez is obviously the ?Wild Card? here. Rex Ryan has confidence in the guy, but what do the numbers tell us? Well, for the season Sanchez has had a passer rating of 75.3 (#27 out of 31) (Ben Roethlisberger: 97.0; #5), completion % of 54.8 (#29; BR: 61.7% #15), and 6.5 YPA (#26; BR: 8.2; #3). Sanchez is a very mediocre quarterback at this stage of his career. There is a reason, why he is ranked in the bottom 5 in all important passing categories. I know he?s been playing much better in the playoffs, but he?s going against the BEST defense of 2010 (I know the Chargers are technically #1 statistically) and if I was a gambler (what do you know, I am!), I would most definitely wager on this Defense to keep this 2nd year QB in check.



#2
Posted: 1/20/2011 4:33:05 AM
Speaking of Sanchez playing better in the playoffs, it?s amazing to me how many people are over-valuing this Jets squad based on them beating the Colts and even the Patriots. What we need to remember is that neither one of these opponents had ?top-notch? defenses. Indy was 20th allowing 342 YPG, while New England was 25th allowing 367 YPG on the season. Neither team is great at stopping the run; ranking 25th and 11th respectively (NE ranks #16 in rushing yards per attempt at 4.2, which is a better indicator of how average their run D is). The Jets were able to average 145 yards on the ground in these 2 games, which was a big reason why they won both of them. It will not be the case against Pittsburgh. Steelers are a different ?animal? and I just don?t see how the Jets will move the ball efficiently against this terrific defensive lineup.

OK, so all these stats are nice, and the fact that the Jets haven?t faced a top-notch playoff defense yet is believable, but how do you explain the fact that the Jets have already beaten the Steelers once this season, in Pittsburgh to boot? Ahhhh?.Glad you asked! ? Well, the opening kick-off returned for a TD by the Jets was a ?big? factor in my opinion. Yes, Jets ST?s are much better than the Steelers, but Pittsburgh must ensure that they don?t give up long returns in Sunday?s game. I don?t see that happening again. In addition, both Heath Miller and Troy Polamalu missed that first game with injuries. Both are ?key? guys on this Pittsburgh team. Miller is an excellent blocker and is crucial in both pass-protection and the run-game. Polamalu, well, he might be the best defensive player in the league. Yeah, I know that he missed a bunch of tackles last game against Baltimore, but I see him playing much better against the Jets on Sunday. Both players are healthy for this one. Finally, the 3rd factor (and I do hate to say this) was ?motivation?. Steelers were coming off 2 big divisional wins against Cincy and Baltimore, which pretty much locked up the division title for them with 2 cupcakes in Carolina and Cleveland left in weeks 16 and 17. Jets were going into week 15 as losers of 2 straight, and a number of ?close? calls against some mediocre opposition. This was their ?statement? game. I watched that game and Steelers just didn?t look right. They were a bit flat in that one. Even so, Roethlisberger led a ?final? drive from Pittsburgh?s 8 yard line and got as close as Jets-10 before time expired. Two things from that game that stood out to me: #1) Pittsburgh had an advantage in most statistical categories that are important to winning ball games. They had 25 1st downs to Jets? 17, 377 yards of offense to Jets? 276, 65% 3rd Down conversion rate to Jets? 46%, and controlled the ball for 3 more minutes. #2) was the success they had on the ground. Pittsburgh ran the ball 25 times for 146 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per rush. If they run the ball this well on Sunday, I see the Steelers ?running? away with this one.

Statistically, I think I?ve proven that Steelers are a better team, more efficient, and have a much better QB. Now let?s look at a few other factors that favor Pittsburgh in this one:

Home Field Advantage ? this one is obvious, but more specifically it?s the fact that the Jets have to go on the road for the 3rd consecutive game and 5th time in the last 6. Sure I know that these are ?professional? athletes we?re talking about a trip to the Super Bowl, but the bottom line is that it?s a lot of travel ?time. These players are human and it?s hard on your body to constantly be on the road. Steelers, on the other hand, have been home for 3 consecutive weeks now, and 6 out of the last 7 (counting their 1st round bye).

?Revenge? ? the Jets have beaten the Steelers about a month ago, so that loss is still fairly fresh. Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS this year ?revenging? a previous loss (either a loss this year or from a past year(s)). Pittsburgh knows they have to play hard and execute their game-plan well in order to beat these guys. I expect them to be very focused in this one, just like the Jets. If both teams are executing well and playing to their abilities, I expect the ?better? team to win majority of the time. Steelers are a better team.

Ben Roethlisberger ? yes I know I?ve touched on this earlier, but I want to emphasize the difference in QB?s here. We all know how crucial a Quarterback is to a team?s success in the playoffs. There is a big difference between Roethlisberger and Sanchez. As much as Ryan will want to protect Sanchez, he will eventually have to let him win this game. I just don?t think he?ll be able to pull it off against this Steelers D that is playing at such a high level right now.

Turn-overs / Sacks ? both teams are very good at causing turn-overs and protecting the ball on offense. Steelers are +17 while the Jets are +9 in TO ratio. Steelers led the league in Sacks this season but the Jets weren?t too far behind, ranking #9.

My one concern is the Steelers? O-line. Jets have an excellent O-line, even with the loss of Woody at the end of the season. (He is their best run-blocker by the way). Steelers? O-line has improved greatly from the start of the season till now, but is not as good as the Jets. This line played OK last week, even though they gave up 6 sacks in the game, one of which led to the defensive score. Some of those sacks were due to Big Ben holding on to the ball too long. In the first game against the Jets, Steelers O-line allowed 3 sacks. Obviously this is an area of ?concern? for Pittsburgh, and I do expect them to make the necessary adjustments: run the ball more to keep the defense off-balance and have Roethlisberger get rid of the ball quicker. I?m not worried about the sacks so much, as the sack-fumbles. Roethlisberger must protect the ball in this game and I expect that he will.

In summary, I feel that the Steelers are a better team here. They?re stronger on both sides of the ball, have home field advantage, and a much better QB. My model predicts a 25-18 score in this one and I will lay the -3.5 here on Pittsburgh. Good luck!

(PS: Tomorrow I?m going to provide my analysis and ?play? on the Green Bay / Chicago matchup. It will be posted in a separate thread and I?ll include a ?link? in here also).
 

Axle

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Great Posts.......as Berman would say, "That's why they play the game........." :SIB
 
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