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#2 Oklahoma VS South Florida
Nate Hybl returns as the QB for the Sooners, with started Jason White out for the season with a torn ACL. Oklahoma looked strong against UTEP two weeks ago, pummeling them 68-0. With a week to prepare for South Florida, I expect another strong performance from the Sooners. South Florida does have a decent passing attack, but not enough to mount a serious challenge.
Prediction:
Oklahoma 42
South Florida 20

#3 Texas AT Tulane
Statistically, and likely to the chagrin of UT fans, Texas and OU have looked eerily similar in the beginning of the season. Both teams are averaging roughly the same yards through the air and on the ground. Regardless, I almost want to feel sorry for Tulane as they will really struggle with the Horns. Texas should roll, and I doubt they will be challenged until the big UT-OU game in a couple weeks.
Prediction:
Texas 35
Tulane 10


#5 Virginia Tech AT Western Michigan
The Hokies overcame the adversity of a strong defense as they beat Texas A&M last week. This week the offense should have a lot more success as they go up against a defense that is suspect at best. Western Michigan likes to pass the ball. They will throw it a lot, and they will try and beat the Hokie secondary deep. I expect the Virginia D to create a lot of turnovers here.
Prediction:
Virginia Tech 35
Western Michigan 17


#6 Ohio State VS Indiana
The Buckeyes are lucky to have escaped the Bearcats last week. And without RB Maurice Clarett, Ohio State was nothing to brag about. I think Ohio State will hammer out their mistakes from last week and play a near flawless game at home against the Hoosiers. Indiana may get some good plays through the air, but Ohio State will adjust and eventually shut them down.
Prediction:
Ohio State 37
Indiana 13

#7 Florida VS Kentucky
Rex Grossman went into Tennessee and pounded the Vols. He finally looked like the Grossman we are used to seeing. With a tough SEC schedule ahead Florida better not overlook the 4-0 Cats. Kentucky has a good team, but they don?t match up well against Florida. Kentucky will play with heart, but they don?t have enough to upset the Gators.
Prediction:
Florida 35
Kentucky 24

#8 Georgia VS New Mexico State
After two weeks of a disappointing offense, the Bulldogs poured it into NWS last week, destroying my upset pick of the season. Georgia looked impressive and I think they will stay with a strong offensive showing, they just needed a chance to prove to themselves they could do it. The Aggies have a strong running game and have presented problems for USC and last week upset New Mexico. But Georgia?s D will choke up on the run and shut down any hope for NMSU.
Prediction:
Georgia 28
New Mexico State 17

#11 Tennessee VS Rutgers
Tennessee got surprised last week by the Gators, and may have also squandered their National Championship hopes. The Vols have a good team, and a lethal passing attack to go with their running game. This game is going to get ugly as the Vols extract retribution for last week.
Prediction:
Tennessee 46
Rutgers 17

#12 Penn State VS Iowa
After a slow start the Lions poured it on against Louisiana Tech. Penn State has really impressed me this year. They have a strong team, and proved they can win big games, upsetting Nebraska two weeks ago. Iowa will be another tough opponent for the Lions. Iowa has an awesome running game (271.5 YPG) that will keep it close but in the end PSU pulls it out.
Prediction:
Penn State 30
Iowa 29

#13 Washington VS Idaho
Last week, Washington looked good. They had a passing attack that shredded the Cowboy Defense, and they will use a similar game plan against Idaho. QB Cody Pickett could be a sleeper for the Heisman if he continues to put up spectacular numbers. Idaho has been bombed on by the ranked opponents they have play so far, and they know they are lambs for the slaughter at Washington.
Prediction:
Washington 40
Idaho 10

#14 Michigan AT Illinois
Michigan did not look good in their game against the Utes last week, but escaped with a win anyway. I do not expect them to struggle as much against the Illini. Illinois can throw the ball well but its not going to get them past the strong Wolverine D.
Prediction:
Michigan 27
Illinois 17

#17 N.C. State VS Massachusetts
NC State escaped a squeaker in overtime against Texas Tech. The offense played well, but the defense could barely keep the Red Raiders out of the endzone. I think that UMASS will play NC State close due to their strong passing game, but NC State comes out in the end. Prediction:
NC State 31
UMASS 27

#18 USC VS #23Oregon State
After USC?s upset by Kansas State, I think it is likely that the Trojans will drop another one here to the Beavers. Oregon State is undefeated and has played strongly this season. The one knock on OSU to date is the level of competition. Nevertheless, the Beaver offense is averaging 500 yards a game, and the defense has been stifling. This should be a great game and if Oregon State wins here, they could very well go on to win the Pac-10.
Prediction:
Oregon State 32
USC 20

#19 Iowa State VS #20 Nebraska
Iowa State has truly been impressive this year, and have a chance to continue their dominance if they can steal a win against the Cornhuskers. Iowa Sate has scored easily all season and I think they will find the holes in the Nebraska D and exploit them. Nebraska comes off a bye week after a huge loss to Penn State and hopefully the two week?s preparation is enough to motivate the ?Huskers. I don?t think it is and the Nebraska loss will drop them from the polls for the first time since 1981.
Prediction:
Iowa State 31
Nebraska 25

#22 LSU VS Mississippi State
The Tigers have had a week off to get ready for Mississippi State. LSU is only averaging 345 yards a game, and QB Matt Mauck has looked less then spectacular. For the first time in five years the Tigers are playing a game in the morning, rather then their traditional evening games. It could have an effect on the players, but time of day shouldn?t effect skill level too much. Mississippi State is once again having a disappointing season, and I don?t believe they have what it takes to hold LSU at bay. Prediction:
LSU 28
Miss St 20

#24 Texas A&M VS Louisiana Tech
The Aggies proved that defense alone cannot win ball games. Averaging just 16 points per game does not bode well for a Top 25 team. LaTech played one great half of football against Penn State, but the Aggie D can shut down the aerial assault. My Call: Tech hangs in there but will shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers.
Prediction:
Texas A&M 21
Louisiana Tech 17

#25 Colorado State AT Nevada
The Rams return to the rankings after their idle week. Nevada has proved that they are not a team to be underestimated after they beat Rice and upset then ranked BYU two weeks ago. I expect this to be a good game, but Colorado State should have enough to win.
Prediction:
Colorado State 27
Nevada 25
 

buddy

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I was never able to understand Chinese Physics.

I was never able to figure out Rubik's Cube.

And I cannot understand nor am I able to figure out how Rutgers could possibly score 17 points against TENNESSEE.

(Although I can understand how it may be possible for 17 Rutgers players to leave the playing field via stretchers attended by medical personnel.)
 

JOSHNAUDI

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more predictions - credit dr bob sports

OKLAHOMA (-28.0) 38 S. Florida 10
04:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Oklahoma has the talent to win by more than 4 touchdowns, but the Sooners coaching staff has plenty of ties to the staff at South Florida and are still pretty close to this day. Given that, I can certainly see the Sooners letting up a bit if this game gets out of hand. My math system calls for a 41-7 Oklahoma win, but I don?t see the Sooners giving a full effort for 4 quarters and South Florida is not is not bad defensively.

Texas (-32.0) 35 TULANE 7
12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
I?m not going to spend any time analyzing this game based on fundamentals, since it really doesn?t matter how much Texas can win by ? it?s more about how much they will let up when they have a big lead. My ratings favor the Longhorns by 32 points in this game, but coach Mack Brown has a long history of mercy in non-conference games and his team is now 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 27 points or more in non-conference games. In the opener, against North Texas, the Longhorns were up 27-0 at the half as a 35 point favorite and the game ended 27-0. Now that?s letting up. My only concern here is that when Texas starts to run the ball to eat up time with a big lead, they may actually keep scoring because Tulane can?t stop the run (5.4 yprp allowed). While the Longhorns may run up the score without trying, I?m more inclined to favor Mack Brown?s merciful intentions.

FLORIDA (-19.0) 45 Kentucky 21
12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Florida may not deserve to be favored by nearly 3 touchdowns against unbeaten Kentucky (my ratings favor the Gators by 17 points), but I have a feeling that they?ll step up and play a good game here. Kentucky has averaged an impressive 425 yards at 6.3 yards per play in their four victories, but the Wildcats have faced a collection of teams that combine to allow an average of 6.0 yards per play on defense, so the offense may be a bit overrated. Florida?s defense has not played up to their potential yet (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense), but the Gators should be fired up to face the hyped up ?hefty lefty? Jared Lorenzen. Lorenzen, at nearly 300 pounds, ought to be the Jared eating at Subway but Florida boosters would be happy to see him eating the turf a few times. Florida?s pass rush has been MIA so far this year (2 sacks total in 4 games), but Lorenzen is getting sacked 3 times per game against weaker foes so expect the Gators to get to him a few times in this game. Florida?s offense, meanwhile, has started to come together (6.1 yards per play against a very good Tennessee defense) and the Gators are now averaging 5.7 yppl for the season despite facing a schedule of teams that has combined to yield just 4.7 yppl on defense. Florida?s rushing attack, averaging 5.6 yprp (against teams that allow just 4.1 yprp), will have a field day against a soft Kentucky defensive front that has surrendered real estate at an average of 5.0 yprp despite facing a schedule that combines to average just 4.2 yprp on offense. Kentucky?s pass defense has been decent (5.8 yppp), but they?ve gotten worse each week and allowed 202 yards on just 19 pass plays to Middle Tennessee State last week (MTS averaged 7.3 yards per play for the game). I?ll lean with Florida to make a statement about their SEC supremacy to the up-and-coming Wildcats.

GEORGIA (-28.0) 35 New Mexico St. 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Georgia may not be good enough offensively to win by a big margin in this game against a decent New Mexico State squad. The Bulldogs averaged just 4.0 yards per play in their two lined games against Clemson and South Carolina defensive units that combine to allow 4.5 yards per play on defense. Scoring 45 points on a horrible Northwestern State division 1AA team is not that impressive either and they?ll have a tougher time scoring on the Aggies, who don?t appear to be that bad defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense). New Mexico State?s option attack is always tough to prepare for the and the Aggies have averaged 5.2 yards per play against 3 good defensive teams that combine to allow just 4.8 yppl for the season combined. Georgia has a good defense, but maybe not good enough to keep New Mexico State from scoring a couple of times. I think the line is too high in this game and Georgia is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

TENNESSEE (-40.5) 48 Rutgers 0
04:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
The Volunteers are going to be in a nasty mood after losing to rival Florida and Rutgers won?t be able to do anything about it. The Scarlet Knights will most likely not score against Tennessee?s first team defense and the Vols? underachieving offense (5.7 yppl against teams that allow 5.8 yppl) is due to explode and they should get well against a Rutgers defense that has surrendered 4.7 yards per play against horrible offensive teams that combine to average just 3.8 yppl on offense for the season.

PENN ST. (-8.0) 34 Iowa 27
09:05 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
This is a very tough game to call, given that both teams are playing well and both have situations favoring them in this game. The Nittany Lions suffered no letdown last week, following their big win over Nebraska, as they beat up on a pretty good Louisiana Tech team 49-17 while ringing up 7.1 yards per play on offense. Penn State has returned to offensive prominence with quarterback Zach Mills at the controls. Mills has help from the running tandem of Johnson and Robinson, who have combined to rush for 374 yards at 7.6 ypr and 9 touchdowns. Overall, the Nittany Lions have averaged a very impressive 6.5 yards per play in 3 games against pretty good defensive teams that combine to allow just 5.0 yppl on defense. Iowa?s defense stops the run extremely well (2.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that combine to average 3.5 yprp on offense), but Mills should have another good outing against a Hawkeyes? secondary that has given up 6.6 yards per pass play to teams that combine to average 6.1 yppp on offense. Iowa?s offense has been nearly as good as Penn State?s, averaging 7.1 yppl against teams that combine to allow 5.8 yppl, and they ought to be able to move the ball well against a mediocre Lions? stop unit that has yielded 5.3 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.3 yppl on offense. From a technical standpoint, Penn State qualifies in a 98-37-3 ATS momentum situation, while Iowa qualifies in an 84-38-5 ATS statistical indicator that plays on underdogs the stop the run well. Overall, my mathematical model calls for a 7 point Penn State win and the angles are a wash, so I?ll tab the Lions to win by 7.

WASHINGTON (-30.5) 49 Idaho 23
12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Idaho has one of the nation?s worst defensive units and they?ve already given up 49 points to Washington State and 58 points to Oregon. However, my mathematical analysis predicts just 49 points for Washington in this game and Huskies? coach Rick Neuheisel has a tough time getting his team up for inferior opponents. Neuheisel is just 8-28-1 ATS when favored by 7 points or more, going back to his days at Colorado, and Idaho has a good offensive team that could supply a back-door cover if they are down by more than the number late. My mathematical model favors Washington by 29 points and there is certainly no good reason to take Washington here, given Neuheisel?s career tendency of not covering big numbers.

Michigan (-7.5) 28 ILLINOIS 24
12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Michigan is just 2-14-1 ATS as a road favorite since ?98 and they are just 23-43-1 ATS when favored by 4 points or more anywhere under coach Lloyd Carr (since ?95). That ought to be enough to get me leaning towards Illinois and my mathematical model suggests that the line is fair in this game (it favors the Wolverines by 8 points). Illinois has blossomed offensively with Jon Beutjer at quarterback, gaining 600 or more yards in consecutive games against weak defensive teams Arkansas State and San Jose State. For the season, the Illini have averaged 6.4 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.6 yppl on defense. The Illini did have trouble moving the ball against better defensive teams Missouri and Southern Miss, but I expect them to do a pretty good job against a good Wolverines? defense that has yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense, especially since Michigan tends to under-perform on the road. Illinois? defense took the week off against San Jose State last week, allowing 517 total yards, but they were an average defensive unit prior to that game and most likely were caught looking ahead to this game. With an emotional effort from the Illinois defense, I don?t expect the Wolverines? offense (5.0 yppl against teams that allow 4.7 yppl) to do too much damage. The line looks about right, so I?ll favor the Illini to cover based on Michigan?s poor history as a road favorite and as a favorite in general.
 

JOSHNAUDI

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cont'd - credit dr bob sports


USC (-3.5) 24 Oregon St. 20
03:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Oregon State is actually in a bad situation today after cruising to 4 easy wins as big favorites and now having to face a good opponent on the road (a 35-71 ATS situation applies that is based on that premise). However, I?m not to eager to lay points with a USC squad that is just 5-19 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite. The Trojans do, however, have an outstanding defense that has limited three good teams to just 3.9 yards per play (against teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense). Oregon State has the best offense that the Trojans have seen this year (6.1 yppl against teams that allow 5.3 yppl), but they should be up to the task. Oregon State?s offense is making headlines, but their defense is also solid (3.9 yppl allowed to teams that average just 4.5 yppl on offense) and should do a pretty good job against a good Trojans? attack led by veteran signal caller Carson Palmer. The Trojans were shut down offensively last week (3.9 yppl) by a dominating Kansas State defense, but Palmer has led his team to a 5.1 yards per play average despite facing a schedule of teams that combine to allow just 4.5 yppl on defense. Overall, my math model favors USC by 4 ? points and the situation going against Oregon State is another reason to side with the Trojans. However, do so at your own risk.

Nebraska 27 IOWA ST. (pick) 24
12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Iowa State has been a Bowl team the last two years and they were underdogs to Nebraska by 15 ? points at home in 2000 and by 23 ? points last year in Lincoln. The Cyclones lost those games by 22 points and 34 points, respectively. Now, Iowa State is suddenly a pick?em with the Huskers. Surely, the Cyclones have continued to improve and are a better team this year and Nebraska is obviously not as good without Heisman winner Eric Crouch. However, have they made up more than 2 touchdowns on Nebraska in one year? If early season results are any indication, then the answer is yes, as my math model favos the Cyclones by 4 points based on this year?s games. However, Nebraska has had an extra week off to try to fix the problems that led to their 7-40 loss at Penn State and the Huskers qualify in an incredible 65-15-1 ATS conference road bounce-back situation. While that angle is very strong, I am a bit reluctant to go with Nebraska in this game as they have always had some problems on natural grass fields (8-16-1 ATS since ?93, including loss at Penn State), on which the timing of their option offense is a bit different. Nebraska also has not been able to throw the ball with success with new quarterback Jammal Lord (5.0 yards per pass play) and the offense in general is just mediocre at best (5.1 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl on defense). Iowa State is not particularly good at defending good running teams as they allowed an average of 240 rushing yards at 6.1 yards per rushing play in games against Florida State and Iowa, so I do expect the Huskers? offense to generate some points without a good pass attack. Iowa State?s offense, meanwhile, is averaging 441 yards at 6.2 yppl (against teams that allow 5.5 yppl), but most of their yardage is from the arm of quarterback Seneca Wallace and the Huskers do defend the pass well (4.9 yppp allowed to teams that average 5.3 yppp on offense). The teams that Nebraska will have trouble with this year are the teams that defend the run very well and run the ball well on offense. Iowa State does neither of those things, so I?ll lean with Nebraska.

LSU (-13.0) 24 Mississippi St. 17
09:30 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Mississippi State is not as bad as their scores indicate and there is some considerable line value in their favor in this game because of it. The Bulldogs started the season at Oregon in a game in which they lost their starting quarterback the day before the game. That gave backup quarterback Kyle York no time to prepare with the first team offense and Ducks took advantage of York?s lack of preparation while limiting the Bulldogs? off to just 223 yards while forcing 4 turnovers in a 36-13 win. What has been overlooked is the great effort the Miss State defense gave in that game despite horrible field position. Oregon, a team that averages 5.3 yards per play, managed just 4.6 yards per play against the Bulldogs? stop unit. Mississippi State blew out Jacksonville State 51-13 in Fant?s return, racking up 547 total yards in the process while allowing just 248 yards. However, Jackie Sherrill?s club got smoked on national television last Thursday night, losing at home 14-42 to a very good Auburn team. However, 4 lost fumbles and a ?6 in turnovers were the cause of the big margin of defeat in a game that was actually pretty close from the line of scrimmage. Miss State averaged 5.0 yards per play against an Auburn defense that has allowed 5.0 yppl this season, and the Bulldogs? defense allowed 5.6 yards per play to a Tigers? offense that has averaged 5.6 yards per play this season. While Auburn clearly was the better team, a 5.6 to 5.0 yppl differential is not that much and would normally lead to a 3 to 7 point win if the turnovers were even. LSU, meanwhile, has struggled on offense this season and has averaged just 4.8 yards per play in their two Division 1A games to Virginia Tech and Miami-Ohio, who combine to allow an average of 5.1 yppl on defense. Mississippi State?s defense is better than average and should limit the Tigers? points in this game. The Tigers do have a ferocious defense that has allowed just 3.9 yppl in their two lined games to offensive units that combine to average 4.9 yppl for the season. However, Mississippi State has a pretty good offense with Kevin Fant at quarterback. Fant averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt last season while splitting duty with Wayne Madkin and he?s averaging 9.7 yards per attempt this season. LSU is coming off a nice win over Miami-Ohio, but the inconsistent Tigers are just 3-23 ATS in regular season games after a pointspread win or tie in their last game, including 1-17 ATS more recently. LSU is also just 30-56-1 ATS as a home favorite since 1983 and 0-13 ATS in that role if they are coming off a spread win or tie.

TEXAS A&M (-13.0) 28 Louisiana Tech 17
04:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
Texas A&M may not have enough offense to pull away from a solid Louisiana Tech team that plays well on both sides of the ball. The Aggies have averaged just 3.9 yards per play against a schedule of foes that combine to allow an average of just 4.4 yppl on defense, and A&M could muster only 4.5 yards per play against a poor Louisiana Lafayette team. Louisiana Tech gave up a ton of yards and points at Penn State last week, but they?ve allowed just 5.0 yards per play in their four games against teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense, so last week may have been an aberration. While Texas A&M may not score more than 30 points, they still may cover the number thanks to a defense that has allowed just 3.5 yppl to a schedule of teams that combines to average 4.5 yppl on offense (and they held Virginia Tech to just 4.2 yppl last week). Louisiana Tech has a pretty good offense, averaging 5.7 yppl against teams that allow 5.4 yppl, but they?ll have a tough time reaching 20 points in this game. Texas A&M is 13-6 ATS at home since ?99, but only 1-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and my mathematical model favors the Aggies by just 10 points.

Colorado St. (-11.5) 34 NEVADA 28
01:05 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Sep-28
The Wolfpack won for me in a 3-Star Best Bet a few weeks ago on this field, beating BYU 31-28 as a 14 point underdog and I considered playing them again this week. Nevada played a ton of young players the last few years and those players have matured into a pretty good group of veterans. The Wolfpack are still not a good defensive team (6.1 yards per play against teams that combine to average 5.4 yppl on offense), but quarterback Zac Threadgill has emerged into a star (8.3 yards per pass play!!) while trying to compensate for the loss of star back Chance Kretschmer (hurt on the first play of the BYU game). Colorado State is just average offensively, so they may not take full advantage of Nevada?s defense. The Rams? defense, meanwhile, has allowed 6.3 yppp to teams that combine to average 6.1 yppp, so expect Threadgill to have another good game today. Colorado State qualifies in a negative 27-60-2 ATS road favorite situation and Nevada is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 as a home underdog. The line also is a bit high as my mathematical model favors the Rams by just 10 points. However, Colorado State is coming off a bye and the Rams are 15-3 ATS in games after a week off. That?s enough to get me to pass on the Wolfpack as a Best Bet, but I?ll certainly still lean their way.
 

TIME TO MAKE $$$

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buddy said:
I was never able to understand Chinese Physics.

I was never able to figure out Rubik's Cube.

And I cannot understand nor am I able to figure out how Rutgers could possibly score 17 points against TENNESSEE.

(Although I can understand how it may be possible for 17 Rutgers players to leave the playing field via stretchers attended by medical personnel.)


Maybe this guy has figured out the Rubik's cube?

I also never thought they would score a point

:shrug:
 
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