Somebody please talk me out of this...

[Cortez]

KC -3 looks and smells like a massive trap, yet I just can't help myself.

Here's the thing... I've been looking for good spots to bet the Washington football team all year long, and there have been times where I thought I found just the spot... and every effing time they make me regret it. After 13 weeks I've come to the conclusion that they just plain blow. I may still bet them this year, but I don't see how this is the spot.

If there's one thing we know about KC it's that they beat up on bad teams (I realize "beat up on" might be a stretch). Their 3 straight losses have been against quality teams, and they have a couple of 1 point wins over Dallas and Houston. Other than that they've taken care of the Jacksonvilles / Oaklands / Buffalos of the league fairy handily. Let's face it, Washington is a bit of a Jacksonville / Oakland / Buffalo this year. I know they beat SD, who in turn beat KC, but I'm choosing to ignore that out of convenience.

Anyway, I'm not married to my play, and in fact feel somewhat uneasy about it, so I'm hoping someone can talk me out of it...

 

[bleedingpurple]

KC -3 looks and smells like a massive trap, yet I just can't help myself. Here's the thing... I've been looking for good spots to bet the Washington football team all year long, and there have been times where I thought I found just the spot... and every effing time they make me regret it. After 13 weeks I've come to the conclusion that they just plain blow. I may still bet them this year, but I don't see how this is the spot. If there's one thing we know about KC it's that they beat up on bad teams (I realize "beat up on" might be a stretch). Their 3 straight losses have been against quality teams, and they have a couple of 1 point wins over Dallas and Houston. Other than that they've taken care of the Jacksonvilles / Oaklands / Buffalos of the league fairy handily. Let's face it, Washington is a bit of a Jacksonville / Oakland / Buffalo this year. I know they beat SD, who in turn beat KC, but I'm choosing to ignore that out of convenience. Anyway, I'm not married to my play, and in fact feel somewhat uneasy about it, so I'm hoping someone can talk me out of it...

Well you said you felt uneasy, that's all I need to know. Must have confidence, I was totally confident with New Orleans early in week and then my confidence really deteriorated yesterday but I stuck with the pick.

Uneasy should mean pass

 

[Cortez]

Well you said you felt uneasy, that's all I need to know. Must have confidence, I was totally confident with New Orleans early in week and then my confidence really deteriorated yesterday but I stuck with the pick.

Uneasy should mean pass

I guess it's not so much a lack of confidence in the play as it is a feeling that I'm missing something. It just seems like a no brainer, which always make me uneasy. Just curious how others feel about the matchup.

 

[pug]

81% of bets on KC and the line has dropped from - 3 1/2 to -3. I smell a rat. Looks like a Washington upset to me.

 

[Scrapman]

IF KC had won vs Denver then yes fade them but your forgetting one thing here Andy reid knows the redskins current team very well KC's defense is shattered redskins have zero defense Andy reid can win at redskins hell the Jaguars can beat them right now ONLY team that would lose to redskins are the Browns Jets Vikings Packers i'll toss raiders in too

 

[pug]

Wash #1 run offense vs. KC #21 run defense. Wash won't even need to pass, but will just run all day long. KC's confidence has been crushed with 3 consecutive losses to division rivals. KC's defense is littered with injuries. If KC was going to cover, the line would be -6 or so. The fact that it is now only -3 tells me a lot. Even with the line drop, now only 18% of bets are on Wash. Not only will KC lose out right, they will lose next week at Oakland too.

 

[Skanoochies]

When two teams meet that have both lost their last three
games, the home dog has covered a high % of the time
supposedly. Any people with a database could verify this?:shrug:

 

[Scrapman]

Andy reid knows the redskins current team very well 13 years he played against them

I'll lay the 3 points here redskins have no qb or any deep threats at all


Wash is - 2 in to's KC is + 13

 

[Cortez]

Despite Washington's ability to run the ball (ranked #1), they're having a hard time finding the endzone (#19 in scoring).

Despite KC's below average rush AND pass defense (both #21), their opponents can't seem to score (#4 in points against).

If it was week 5 I would look at those numbers and think it was a fluke and expect the numbers to balance out in the long run. At week 14 though it's become clear that KC is simply much much better at looking after the ball than Washington. I don't care how many rush yards Washington gets, eventually they'll turn the ball over and it should result in some bonus points for KC.

I know it's a square play, but sometimes the square play is still the right play. I'm seeing 89% on the Chiefs which scares the hell out of me, but I've based too many losing plays over the years on just fading the public. You gotta trust your gut and your own analysis. My gut still says KC.

 

[Tabascocat]

Coming from a Cowboys fan perspective.......if you are looking for the perfect spot to bet Wash, do it against Dallas in week 16. They will be up for that game, more so than any other. Wash is done, finito but they will give their best effort against Dallas.

If you insist on this week, take KC. Reid knows the NFCE and there is little to no chance Wash beats KC, they have all but given up. I think KC wins this one by at least 10. There is one game left that is circled on the Redskins schedule and that is at home vs the Cowboys...that is your best bet IMO.