Something fishy about the NC State game

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Marra

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Aug 31, 2002
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EVERYONE is on N.C. State everywhere I look, but the line movement is showing up on Clemson, bringing it to a pick. Its back up to -1 now, however. I really like N.C. State, and would like them more if the line movement wasn't so weird.

Clemson was outgained by 243 yards last week against Wake Forest, but came out with an 8 point victory. They are 4-0 at home, and 0-3 on the road. They look like a totally different team in South Carolina. But, they haven't played any "bowl eligible" teams in my eyes at home. I am not impressed with Willie Simmons, and he really hasn't lived up to the hype. (Better than Dantzler, my arse.)

N.C. State averages 2.7 more yards per pass attempt (one of the most important stats in college football IMO) and .5 yards more per rush. Both teams give up basically the same amount of yards on defense and NC State averages 65 more yards on offense.
The Duke game last week kind of scares me, however. They were due for a big time let-down, and they definitely had it. They were actually OUTGAINED by 12 yards against Duke. Every team has a bump in the road, but that was more of a pot-hole. Hopefully, that is why their is a lot of money rolling in on Clemson b/c of that game. This is going to be a small play on NC State for me for 1 unit. If the line wasn't so fishy, and if there wasn't that big of a let-down against Duke, it would be a 2 unit play, but I dont like betting road favorites for any more than 1 unit.

PLAY NC State -1.
 

Marra

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Thursday, October 24th - 7:45 p.m. (et)
The Sports Network

By Scott Haynes, College Football Editor


GAME NOTES: After facing their first real scare from an unlikely source, the 12th-ranked and undefeated North Carolina State Wolfpack get right back to work, as they travel to Death Valley to take on Clemson in a Thursday night tilt in the 22nd-Annual Textile Bowl. Chuck Amato's Wolfpack are currently enjoying the best start in the school's 111-year history (actually tied with the 1967 squad) and reached the 8-0 mark with a hard-fought 24-22 win over upstart Duke last weekend. NC State (3-0 in the conference) is one of only two undefeated teams left in ACC play, trailing only 11th-ranked Florida State (4-0) in the league standings. Clemson on the other hand is fighting to get back in the race, as the Tigers are 2-2 in ACC action. Tommy Bowden's team brought an end to a two-game skid with a 31-23 win over Wake Forest last time out. This series took on the Textile Bowl title in 1981, the year NCSU won the national title. Since then, Clemson boasts a 15-6 advantage. Overall, this series dates back to 1899, with the Tigers leading, 44-25-1. Last season, Clemson posted a 45-37 win in Raleigh. Since 1989, Clemson has enjoyed the spoiler role against NC State, bringing an end to four perfect Wolfpack seasons over that time.

All-American candidate Philip Rivers threw for a season-high 364 yards and two TDs, but it wasn't enough to keep Duke at arm's length, as the Wolfpack had to fight tooth and nail to the finish in a close game against the Blue Devils. Rivers had a pair of 100-yard receivers in the game, as Jerricho Cotchery and Sterling Hicks made the most of their opportunities. Cotchery, the team's leading receiver to date, finished with six catches, for 174 yards and one TD. Now that NC State got its scare last week, the team hopes to get back to its dominating ways on Thursday. The offense has been superb for the Wolfpack this season, as Rivers has thrown his name in the Heisman race with his performance thus far. The nation's leading passer in terms of efficiency (170.82 rating), Rivers has completed almost 69 percent of his passes, for 2,015 yards and 16 TDs. Rivers benefits from a full arsenal in the receiving corps, as three receivers have 25 or more catches. Cotchery leads the way in receptions (29) and receiving yards (650), and has scored four TDs. Hicks is next in line (27 receptions, 380 yards, two TDs), but Bryan Peterson (25 receptions, 448 yards) has been the touchdown maker thus far, with a team-best six scoring catches. The passing attack has opened up a once-mediocre rushing attack. This year's ground game has erupted thanks to the running exploits of freshman sensation T.A. McLendon. The youngster currently leads the team in rushing (635 yards), and the conference in TDs (12). He is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and ranks fourth in the conference with an average of 81.3 ypg.

The NC State defense has been equally impressive thus far, as the unit leads the ACC in total defense (310.5 ypg) and ranks third in average points allowed (19.6 ppg). The pass defense has been stifling, ranking second in the ACC at just 182.2 ypg. Throwing the ball against the unit is almost impossible, as the unit leads the conference in sacks with 36, while forcing 19 turnovers. Linebacker Dantonio Burnette is the heart-and-soul of the defense right in the middle. He has been all over the field this season, amassing a team-high 62 tackles. Despite missing a game with a thumb injury, Burnette still leads the conference in TFLs (15) and sacks (eight). Sophomore safety Andre Maddox is next in line in terms of tackles (60) and is aided in the secondary by All- American candidate Terrence Holt at the other safety position. Holt has 55 tackles on the season, with one sack and two interceptions. Sophomore cornerback Marcus Hudson (22 tackles) has recorded a team-high three INTs. Burnette is the leader amongst the linebackers, but he is not alone in making plays. Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay, Pat Thomas and Oliver Hoyte provide plenty of big plays as well, with 58, 53 and 40 tackles, respectively. The pair have combined for 13 TFLs and four sacks. Defensive ends Shawn Price (19 tackles and seven TFLs) and George Anderson (35 tackles and seven TFLs) create the most pressure along the line, as they are tied for second on the team with five sacks each.

The days of Woody Dantzler moving the ball up and down the field for Tommy Bowden are certainly over, as a once-prolific offense has taken a couple of steps back this season. The Tigers rank dead-last in the conference in total offense (355.0 ypg), while ranking sixth in the league in scoring (27.7 ppg). The ground game is a bit of a concern in Death Valley this season, as the team is generating just 3.6 yards per carry and 131.6 ypg (seventh in the league). Numerous injuries have plagued the rushing attack this season, as Yusef Kelly has been forced into action with both Bernard Rambert and Chad Jasmin missing significant time with injuries. Kelly has been solid for the most part, netting 4.1 yards per carry, but Clemson has not stuck with the run this season, as Kelly has just 96 carries on the year. Quarterback Willie Simmons had the unenviable task of replacing an All-American (Dantzler) under center. To his credit, Simmons has been solid, completing nearly 60 percent of his passes (.588), for 1,404 yards and six TDs. However, Simmons has an identical number of interceptions. Big targets downfield are plentiful in this offense, with Kevin Youngblood (35 receptions, for 285 yards and one TD), J.J. McKelvey (29 receptions, for 409 yards and two TDs) and Derrick Hamilton (29 receptions, for 278 yards and one TD) all are 6-4 or taller.

After underachieving with some serious talent on defense the last few years, it has been refreshing that Clemson has actually overachieved in 2002. The Tigers rank second in the conference in total defense (316.6 ypg). The team has been susceptible to the run (seventh in the league at 152.4 ypg), but is extremely solid against the pass (leads the league at 164.1 ypg). Opponents are averaging just 23.3 points per game against Clemson and keeping this contest in the low 20s could be the key to a Tiger victory. It all starts in the linebacking corps, with John Leake and Rodney Thomas leading the way. Leake and Thomas are two of the most productive LBs in the nation, and currently rank second and third in the ACC in tackles, with 86 and 84 stops, respectively. Playmakers up front include tackles Donnell Washington (42 tackles, three TFLs), Bryant McNeal 40 tackles, team-high seven TFLs, team- high five sacks) and Nick Eason (38 tackles, five TFLs, four sacks), while safety Eric Meekins (58 tackles) and cornerbacks Brian Mance (40 tackles, team-high four INTs) and Justin Miller (29 tackles, three INTs) highlight the secondary play.

The Wolfpack had their wake-up call last week and almost blew an opportunity at a showdown with Florida State in the season-finale -- a game that could decide the ACC title. Clemson has looked solid in every game this season, but the three big ones (Georgia, Florida State and Virginia) have all been losses. This game can only be categorized as a "big one" for both teams. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the trend has been set.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: North Carolina State 31, Clemson 22
 
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CrazyHorse

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I know it's a concern when so many are on one side yet little line movement. That seemed to be the case last week as most were on Maryland yet the line didn't move too much until closer to kickoff. Early this week when it was NCSt -2 I saw a few people on Clemson but now that it's down to basically a pick em I think most are on NC St. To be honest at 1st I thought Clemson sounded good as a slight home dog but after looking into it more I just have to back the overall better team, especially on offense. GL to us!
 

gardenweasel

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no strong feelings on this game

no strong feelings on this game

nc st seems to have the wherewithal this year to pull games out(seem to have that indefinable winning knack)......but,that schedule is abysmal(n mex,e tn st,navy,umass,n carolina,duke-absolutely no decent defenses)....whew....clemson has seen stiff competition(georgia,fla st,renewed virginia,g tech WITH tony hollings-thanks bookie)......and this line is weird...this line seemed set from the very beginning to draw nc st action(clemson-1.5)......which is exactly what it`s doing(almost 70% at wagerline)....this seems as weird as texas a+m drawing almost 80% consensus and then dropping from 6 to 4.5....what up?anybody have any insight on these lines and line movements?....
 

loophole

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Jul 14, 1999
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on my way out the door to the blue ridge mtns for the rest of the week, so i'll miss the game tonight and the weekend games. just thought i'd stop in and opine that the pack wins and covers tonight. if the wolfpack derails it will probably be against uva or md. good luck this weekend on your plays.
 
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