something i will follow and any help on this is appreciated

[bean counter]

last year i looked at what a team did off a night of shooting less than 35% and if a team shot more than 55%. going with the less than 35% teams and against the more than 55% teams the next time they played had a pretty good result. well i have moved a few times last year and lost my records but i thought it hit around 54%. i only looked at it last year so it might have been a 1 year deal but i will follow it this year. so far it is 3-3 but had not posted it so will start the record from today. if anyone has any input on this being a good or bad idea overall through the years please put it out there. from what i saw last year i think it could be used in the capping process.

plays for 11-8-01
seattle +4- (seattle shot 31.9% last time)
atlanta +11 (phoenix shot 55.7% last time)
la clipp +7-(portland shot 55.7% last time)

thats it and good luck.

 

[NJO]

I think the logic you are using is sound, but I don't know if I would necessarily trust this blindly (as much as anything, I don't know if I would trust playing against a short number like 4.5 with a team who may be cold from the field).

Is there a way to tweak things somehow to refine your approach?

My $0.02 worth was to maybe consider playing ON the hot-shooting teams either laying a short number (say less than 5) or catching points,

OR

play against a cold-shooting team who is favored or only catching a few

In this instance, I would actually consider NJ -4.5, as opposed to playing a small dog not shooting well (Seattle).

Obviously, my approach wouldn't generate the same number of plays, and the results? I don't know.

I'll be interested to see how this shakes out.