Something to think about

[DBmeister]

To all the madjackers out there. This the time of year when everyone becomes a pundit, but some trends appear year after year. That being said in the 1st 2 rounds favs and overs usually produce a winning edge. Favs 16-15-1 and overs 23-9 for a combined 39-24-1 which is a nice 12.6 unit profit. In the next 2 rounds I usually bet underdogs and unders. Last night was 1-1-2 dogs and 3-1 unders. Let's see how the trend plays out tonight!!!


Good luck on whomever you take!!!!!!!!



:0008:0008:0008

 

[Old School]

Last night was 1-1-2 dogs and 3-1 unders. Let's see how the trend plays out tonight!!!

great to see someone keeping these numbers ..

I will assume[one never should] these are closing lines from the same house and the 2 are PUSHES AT THAT HOUSE.


w/Ore closing as a -1 Fav at that house being one

and Gonzaga -3 there as well

Kansas the Fav and Xav ruining the desert keg party


Ore. closed as a Fav/Pick /and as a Dog at various houses.

again thanks for the numbers keeping..

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[Handi Capper]

at half dog was 3-1 o/u 2-2

 

[DBmeister]

about last night

about last night

Keeping up with the trends, last night underdogs 2-1-1, if you got wisky at +1.5 or 2 as i've seen on some posts you would be 3-1. Unders were a juice night at 2-2. So far in the second weekend underdogs are 3-2-3 or 4-2-2 depending on what line you had for whisky. Unders are a respectable 5-3. regadless of the lines the worst you would be up would be 2.5 units. If you had whisky at 1.5 or more you would be up 3.5 units.



:0008:toast::0008


Good luck again tonight

 

[hawkeye]

basically a wash--gl,

 

[queazer]

Good stuff

Good stuff

Thanks for the information. + is always good!x34:

 

[DBmeister]

The trend continues

The trend continues

After the completion of round 2, we can finally see how the trends played out. On Saturday underdogs were 1-1 and unders were 2-0. On Sunday underdogs were 1-0-1 and unders were 1-1. If you got Kentucky early at +2.5, underdogs would have been 2-0. Since I base all plays on closing lines, that point is irrelevant. For the weekend underdogs 2-1-1 and unders were 3-1. For Sat & Sun that would be +2.8 units bringing the total for the full weekend to +5.3 units. In addition to the first weekend of action at +12.6 units we have a tidy winning total of 17.9 units so far. Only six more potential bets this year, so no matter what happens the worst you could do would be +11.3 units. No a bad outcome to be able to bet every game in the tourney. A degenerate gambler's dream.



:0074:mj07::0074

 

[DU46]

DB any idea how these trends have done in prior tourneys?

 

[DBmeister]

prior tournaments

prior tournaments

Don't know the exact numbers, but have been following the Big Dance since 1990 and trend still seems to be holding. Good luck on any team you pick. My goal is to be up at least 10 units after all is said and done. Plus you can play every game and get your degenerate gambler fix without fear of losing too much coin.



:0008:0corn:0008

 

[DU46]

Quick question, was re-reading your comments and after the first two rounds favs were 16-15-1...I assume that is just for the first Thursday and Friday? Do you play faves and overs again during the round of 32? Seems like the record for the round of 32 is missing.

 

[DBmeister]

round of 32

round of 32

DU46

In response to your question about the round of 32, i guess i had a brain fart and did not include those results. Yes I still play favs and overs the entire first 2 rounds. Saturday's games were 5-3 favs and 4-3-1 overs. Sunday games were 2-5-1 favs and 4-4 overs. The 2 day totals for both were 15-15-2. So the final tally was -1.5 units for the round of 32. Which leaves a profit of 11.5 units after the entire 1st weekend. Thus we have an adjusted winning total, going into the finals, of 16.4 units. My apologies for the omission and thank you for bringing that to my attention. Even if all 3 games left go over and the favorites all cover, you would still be up 9.8 units. Still a nice profit for the tourney.


:shrug::shrug::shrug:

PS: all results are based of closing lines on Thinkwin

 

[DU46]

No problem at all, I appreciate the clarification. I love the big dance and love to have action on all of the games, if even just small potatoes, and this is something I am interested in doing next year. Thanks again for sharing.

 

[DBmeister]

continuing the trend

continuing the trend

Well the final weekend of college basketball is upon us again, with only 3 more games left. As I have stated, I will wager on the unders and underdogs for the last 3 games to see how the trend plays out this year. Going into the finals we are +16.4 units for the tournament. Whoever you take, good luck with your wagers. Want to give a shoutout to Roqqin Riq for his unbelievable capping this past 2 weeks. Riq keep up the great work.


:0008:0008:0008

 

[DBmeister]

The final 3 games

The final 3 games

Well the semifinals are over with the dogs going 2-0 and the unders 0-2. After Saturday's action , we are down another .2 units and going into the final game with a 16.2 unit profit for the tournament. Even if both the dog and under lose tonight, you would still be up 14 units overall. Personally I am going to play a 1 unit parlay on Carolina and over. Whatever the outcome, I will be happy. The only reason I would do that is UNC is my team. Go Heels!!!!!!!!!!!!




I will post overall results tomorrow with the final dog/under totals. Good luck all and may it be a great game


:0074:0074:0074

 

[DBmeister]

Final games

Final games

The Big Dance is over and we have the final numbers. Going into the final game we were up a total of 16.4 units. The dog lost, but the under covered, juiced, so we have a net win for the tourney of 16.3 units after subtracting the .1 unit loss last night. Personally I lost my 1 unit parlay, but that was a small price to pay for the satisfaction of having UNC win the national championship. I hope everyone can learn something from the thread to use in next year's tournament. Been a great season and look forward to everyone's input next season in football.


:toast::toast::toast: