I've been watching and betting a lot of Western Confernce games the last month. I've watched most of the Sonics games, and many of the Suns games, as well.
I don't like a total on this game, for a couple of reasons. First, Seattle relies way too much on parimeter shooting. This teams launching three-pointers like there is no tomorrow. A few days ago, these Sonics MADE 18 three pointers, which has to be close to the record. The Sonics almost always put up 20+ three point attempts. The problem with handicapping this, is that the VARIENCE is high -- as we have no idea if this team will shoot 25 percent from the arc or closer to 50 percent. 4-5 baskets from the three point range is enough to completely alter the side and total of a game. Seattle reminds of Boston a few years ago, a hapless underachieving team that can't break inside, so they have to rely on the outside to win. Trying to predict what the shooters will do is almost impossible.
THe Sonics also have a recent history of melting down in the fourth quarters. They have lost two significant leads ion the last week -- to GST and UTAH where the game was essentially won, but they failed to score enough pints in the closing minutes.
Phoenix is a complete mess. This team has absolutely NO INSIDE game, and if it weren't for Stoudmeier, this might well be the worst team in the West, if not all of the NBA. THe Suns played well against the phoney KNicks a few nights ago -- winning by 20+ but now against tougher comeptition in the West, this team will go back to its struggling ways.
The bottom line is -- neither team has a good inside game and both much shoot from the permiter. I fiond games like this very difficult to handicap when it comes to predicting totals.
THis is just my opinion. Good luck whatever you do.
Nolan Dalla
:bigun: