Sony Hawaiian Open

[Tommyjay]

Here we go, the first real tournament in a long time.
This is a shot maker's deal, with narrow and hard to hit fairways. Around 50%.
Johnson Wagner won last year with mediocre stats and a great final round. He hit greens.

Wagner to repeat and win 70-1 5di
I like this guys game. Mature player, good nerves, all around good player, and seems to have a desire for big money. All while looking calm and disinterested. I assure myself that he's a tough competitor on the inside, he's have to be, growing up with a first name Johnson.

72 holes
Piercy over Moore -110
Piercy handled Moore last week, easily, at +115. Now they are even one tens. I still think Scott is better than a rusty Moore. I have Piercy as one of my go to guys this year. A player the bookmakers don't respect.

Wagner over Guthrie +120
Really? A guy that has 4 PGA starts and a virgin on this course is favored over last years champion? OK I'll take that bet. Wagner played well last week.

Note on Guthrie---He tore up the minor league last year on minimum starts. He has one top 10 in the PGA on 4 starts. I think this guy could be great, and if he beats Wagner (not Wagner loses), I'm going to be a big fan.

 

[Another Steve]

Let's hope this one goes better for the Players

Outrights
ODDS TO WIN THE SONY OPEN IN HAWAII CARL PETTERSSON +1800
ODDS TO WIN THE SONY OPEN IN HAWAII CHARLES HOWELL +2000
ODDS TO WIN THE SONY OPEN IN HAWAII SCOTT PIERCY +2800


1st Round Match Ups
C HOWELL III (RND 1) -130 (C HOWELL III (RND 1) vrs J SENDEN (RND 1))
B GAY (RND 1) -120 (B GAY (RND 1) vrs C CAMPBELL (RND 1))

4 Round Match Ups
C PETTERSSON -120 (C PETTERSSON vrs Z JOHNSON)
S PIERCY -115 (R MOORE vrs S PIERCY)

 

[Whalers Rule]

Outrights 1 unit ew

Leonard 250-1
English 66-1

 

[scrub]

Outrights

Petterson 100 units
Sabatini 100 units
DeJonge 100 units
Gay 50 units

Match ups

Howell over Johnson -110 660 units
Guthrie over Wagner -150 450 units

 

[Lestat]

Tournament:

Brian Gay +126 over Vijay.

 

[Let's Have Fun]

Carl Petterson 18-1 e.w.

 

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

Pat Perez to beat Chris Kirk -105 @ 5Dimes
Again being cautious because of the winds and the fact that this is the first start of the year for most of this field. PP has been a regular at Waialae since 2002 and in those eleven visits, he has secured five top-20 finishes so this is clearly a venue that suits his game. The other issue is his h2h record against Kirk - last year he shot the lower 1st round in 13 of 18 common events. He may not be as successful over the weekend, but he still has the ability to be competitive when the pressure is off.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Dustin Johnson(10/1) e.w.
- - After last year?s rough go in my golf wagering, there's no chance I?ll pick up a winning marker from the first week, even if the venue doesn?t suit, and even though I have a strong inclination to steer clear of player?s from Kapalua who all had their early season search for their game and tempo slammed by gale force winds for days and days.

Russell Knox(125/1) e.w.
- - He hit his stride at the end of last season, and has a tidy game that can fit nicely here, and with limited starts this year, he may be on task to take advantage of an early opportunity.

Steve Marino(125/1) e.w.
- - His name was on my radar, and he became a must play when my research found encouraging tidbits.
http://www.pgatour.com/tourreport/2013/01/09/marino-begins-comeback.html

Justin Leonard(250/1) e.w.
- - Like-minded thinking. :0008
http://www.golfchannel.com/news/jason-sobel/positive-attitude-helping-leonard-in-tough-time/

Vijay Singh(50/1) e.w.
- - I?ll wager he has at least been working harder than many in recent weeks.

Casey Wittenberg(125/1) e.w.
- - An early prediction is that I lose as many outright wagers on Wittenberg as I lose on maybe any golfer this season.

GL

 

[sharky17]

TOURNAMENT

CHARLES HOWELL III (+100) over ZACH JOHNSON

ROUND 1

MATT EVERY (-121) over JOSH TEATER

:toast:

 

[GolfGuruAU]

18 hole matches: YDD 6-1 +6.6 Units (posted elsewhere)

DeJonge over English -145 1.5 U
Peterson over Piercy -135 1.5 U
ZJ over DJ +110 1 U
Leishman over Na -110 1 U
KB over Kuch -115 1 U

Adding Every over Teater 2U -130

 

[IE]

105 Matt Kuchar (Tourn) +100
106 Keegan Bradley (Tourn) -120

play:
106 Keegan Bradley (Tourn) -120

 

[IE]

7123 Ryan Moore (1st Rnd) -135
7124 Chris Kirk (1st Rnd) +115

play:
7123 Ryan Moore (1st Rnd) -135

 

[BOBBYW]

Leonard-525/1 @ 5Dimes.....I've notice that when they first put the lines out late mon the odds change gradually leading up to wed...

 

[BOBBYW]

100/1 for a T-5...

 

[Heatspix]

Robert Streb only play for me...Long, great Putter, known for being a great wind player. Should play well this week (Top 30 or so I sus[pect, but I'll take a chance on a win in his first PGA Start)

at 500/1, why not!

Didn't play any head to head this week.

 

[Lestat]

Round 2:

Marc Leishman -105 over Kevin Na

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 2

MATT EVERY (-112) over JOSH TEATER

KJ CHOI (+173) over WEBB SIMPSON

:toast:

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (2pts unless stated):

Ryan Palmer to beat John Senden +100 @ BetVictor [also available @ Stan James] [4pts]
A former winner here in 2010, Palmer closed with two birdies yesterday and I expect him to carry that over to the third round. It is something that he did well last year, converting 10 of his 16 cuts made last year in top-25 finishes. The key to that was his 3rd round scoring in which he ranked 4th on the PGA Tour last year. He should beat Senden who has a best finish of 20th in nine previous visits to Waialae, largely because of his difficulties on these greens - in his previous visits, he has never ranked inside the top-50 for putts per GIR or putts per round, and nor is he doing so this week.

Ryan Palmer to beat Tommy Gainey +100 @ Boyle Sports
Gainey has a best finish of 55th in four previous visits, so it is a little surprising that he is as high as 22nd after the first two rounds. He did play well to finish 6th on Tuesday, but that was on a very different course. Waialae is not the type of course on which he should prosper and, given that he ranks 107th (of 144) in greens in regulation this week, it is hard to see how he will improve his position over the weekend.

Pat Perez to beat Chris Kirk -110 @ 5Dimes and WSEX [available generally]
A repeat of the first round matchup. Both played well in the second round, but it is always difficult to follow up the low round of the day - Kirk shot 62 yesterday and finished the day inside the top-5 after 36 holes. This was something that he managed on two occasions last year: in the Humana Challenge he shot 74-72 over the weekend and finished 42nd; in the Deutsche Bank Championship he shot 75-72 over the weekend and finished 35th. That doesn't augur well for today's round for Kirk who despite his 62 yesterday, only hit 11 of 18 greens in regulation; Perez has been much more solid this week, ranking 4th in greens in regulation which verifies his 8th place position on the leaderboard.

David Hearn to beat Morgan Hoffmann +100 @ 5Dimes
Surprised to see Hoffman as the clear favourite in this matchup. He may have played well in the last two months of the 2012 Web.com season, but he has been struggling this week - he ranks 117th in greens in regulation and even when he hit the greens his average distance to the hole was over 44 feet in rd2. Hearn was inside the top-10 after all four rounds last year and is repeating that form this week; he should beat the PGA Tour rookie in this event, at least.

Russell Henley to beat Scott Langley -110 @ Stan James [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek, Carib and WSEX]
A matchup between the two rookies who have dominated the leaderboard so far this week. But whereas Langley has a best finish of 24th in eleven PGA and Web.com Tour events, Henley already has a top-20 finish in a Major (2010 U.S. Open) and finished the 2012 Web.com Tour season with finishes of 1st, 3rd, 1st and 6th to finish the season 3rd on the Money list. Add in the fact that in the first of those victories, he was leading after 36 holes (as this week) and then shot 65-70 to win wire-to-wire, and it is clear that he has the temperament to lead from the front. Given their histories, I'd expect Henley to have the much better season, as well as the better weekend this week.

 

[Blackman]

Round 3:

V. Singh -115 over J. Overton

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 4

CHRIS KIRK (+102) over PAT PEREZ