Sony Open in Hawaii

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 14/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Looked to be playing very well last week and will gladly take a price at just two points less in a field without Tiger. As outlined last week, Goosen habitually starts the year in good form and could very easily have won this title last year. He was the first round leader after 18 and 36 holes, but failed to break 70 over the weekend. In his current form, he should certainly make amends this year.

Davis Love to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
On the back of a solid top-10 finish, this should also be a good event for Love. Before his missed cut from one poor round last year (75-67), he had finished in the top-10 in his last four visits to Waialae, including 2nd place finishes in 1994 and 1999. Had expected much lower odds than this.

Charles Howell to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Had also expected much lower odds on Howell. His course form is very good - 4th and 15th in the last two years, plus he shot 62 in 2002 - and there are benefits to staying out of the trade winds in last week's event. Had vowed to be wary of backing Howell in the outright markets after he surrendered many promising weekend positions last year, but 40/1 is just too large.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Outright
to Place top 5 @ Skybet
Hoch 20/1

Appears wrist injury that hampered him last year is healed. Take away a quadruple on a par 3 last week and he'd had a sole 4th place finish. Considering he is extremely high ball hitter and with the given winds last week and his short hitting status it is an understatement to say he was razor sharp last week---I gotta look @ these odds to place.

Will have some changes this year.
Will not do many early plays this year to protect any potential 1st rd plays later on same.

Will continue with writeups on outrights like above but discontinue write ups on 72 hole matches and 18 hole matches for most part.

Primary reason is while we used to be small little group you will notice a significant increase in traffic on views. Social betters did not effect lines-books-and angles much but--- does not take long for the high rollers to dry up angles profitable in past and which books have been profitable especially U.S. books.

 

[LARGE222]

Tourney plays:
campbell over k perry -5 pinnacle 1 unit i have a great deal of respect for perry but price is short for a guy that i believe will become one of the elit players on tour. Solid all round game.

crane over micheel -10 1/2 unit carib inpressed with crane play at mercedes and had two solid round last year here. Micheel 4 missed cuts out of 6 starts here with another 66th finish.

Thats it . Really like goosen again this week but not interested in bucking Els or SIng.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Scott Hoch to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Baddeley did finish 2nd in this event last year thanks to a very hot putter, but since returning from injury seven months ago, he has finished in the top-20 just once. He should struggle against Hoch who has a good record in this event and was very much in contention last week apart from one quadruple bogey on his card.

Chris Riley to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ BetandWin [3 units]
If Hoch can beat Baddeley then so can Riley. He has a good record on this course with three top-15 finishes in the last five years and ended 2003 in very good form - top-5 finishes in three of his last eight events. A big contrast to Baddeley who will need another very hot putter to contend this week.

Vijay Singh to beat Ernie Els -120 @ Bet365, William Hill and Easybets [3 units]
Singh has beaten Els in each of their five common events across all Tours in the last three months and there was very little from last week's action to suggest any reversal of this domination. Singh missed countless putts from inside 10-feet and still only lost by a single shot, while Els was circumspect again.
(available generally)

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (1 unit e.w.)

S Hoch - 100/1 @ SkyBet
J Huston - 66/1 @ Blue Square
T Herron - 125/1 @ Sporting Odds
A Baddeley - 66/1 @ Victor Chandler

And being up for the longshot outsider as I am, I've put a few quid on Michelle at 5000/1 with Blue Square - not a chance in hell, but hey, stranger things have happened!

Good Luck!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding outright to place @ Skybet (5 places)

Sony Open Place
Love D @ 4/1

Little short but still under 2003 break even rate of return (2.55)

72 holes (all ties push)

Hoch over Byrd
Singh over Els
Petrovic over C Smith

MATCHUP 01/15 [6200] V. SINGH -120
MATCHUP 01/15 [6221] S. HOCH -110
MATCHUP 01/15 [6222] T. PETROVIC -115

 

[lal2000]

Apart from the Trebles I posted on The NZ Open thread, I have a few doubles as well covering just the SA & Sony - these are .5 unit e.w., all at Victor Chandler at todays odds.

Hoch/Howell
Goosen/Moseley
Love/Rose
Campbell/Rodiles

Good Luck!

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Campbell 33 0.5u ew
Goosen 14 0.5u ew

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Immelman & Singh .5 double to win 40.25u

 

[redsfan]

DTB

Where did you find the lines on the Petrovic and Hoch 72h matches - cannot find anywhere

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Redsfan
I usually list books but this year had to get off the beaten path as lines at fav books were getting beat to death. Use to have 4 or 5 wagers at pinnacle and 5 dimes and have had one collectively this year. However since you asked I feel obliged to tell you.
All 3 wagers are @ WWTS

 

[british bulldog]

Sony Open Selections


1.5 points EW Singh 7/1

1 point EW Goosen 12/1

1 point EW Love 14/1

1 point EW Howell 33/1

0.5 points EW Zach Johnson 125/1

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5 units unless stated):

Stephen Ames to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Opposing Baddeley again. This time with Ames who has a 3-0-0 h2h lead over the past 3 months and 10-5-0 over the past year. He can also claim good form on this course, having 14th and 7th in the last two years, so should be more than a match for Badds.

David Peoples to beat Joe Ogilvie -115 @ Five Dimes
Courtesy of two wins on the Nationwide Tour last year, Ogilvie is back on the main Tour, but this has been far from a happy season-opening event in previous years. He has played in this event three times and missed the cut every time. He was disappointing in Australia last month and Peoples is unlikely to need his third consecutive top-20 in this event to prevail in this match.

 

[redsfan]

DTB

I understnd your point entirely.

Stanley posted his 5 dimes plays at around 11 am UK time last night - at that point Ames was +100 outsider in mu with Baddeley - at 7 am on next morning - he's -140!!!

But surely if you make the wagers before posting you don't get burned by stating the book involved?

Thanks for heads up on WSEX

 

[warner]

sony
fuyrk o appleby -130
howell o riley -130
singh o love -160

made at tradewinds & sportingbet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Redsfan It is not so much of getting wager down but having opportunity of wagers in future. Books that have unique match ups (those off the cloned board) or betting angles that have been profitable in past are major concern. One thing we can count on is books won't operate at a loss.
You can beat books continuously at modest wagers on situations and angles and never alert them but if they are hammered they will find out why in short order and adapt.
I personally think the days of golf being an "under the radar sport" are coming to an end. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[lostinamerica]

Charles Howell (33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5 dimes

Tim Herron(100/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365

Howell should be looking to set the right tone out of the box after a disappointing season by his standards, which seems quite likely to have included plenty of productive time away, working from a technically sound and mentally strong foundation, to add a layer of noticeable refinements and seasoning, in an ascending career. Waialae seems to be a decent if not a perfect fit. Thurston is likely to carry a good bit of my cash on the West Coast swing unless he surprises me with a funk and there is no discernible reason behind it . . . I'm likely well off the mark by choosing to take a play on Herron instead of taking a shot with Hoch(66/1), or shooting from the hip with Tanaka(100/1), or leaving a winning marker on the table with Goosen(11/1) when he is holing putts.

GL

 

[sports student]

redsfan you probably already know this but this board has a big influence on the lines- I don't know if these places adjust immediately after Stan or some of the others here post, or if there are enough watchers here that bet enough money to move the line that much. I got Ames +108 vs. Badderly at 5 dimes before Stan made it a recommended play at +100, see now Ames is -160 !

 

[hoss]

2pts Baird v Scott Evs
2pts Kelly v Howell Evs

1/2pt e/w Goosen 12/1
1/4pts e/w Baird 50/1, Crane 100/1

hoss

 

[sports student]

2nd round at sportingbet:

Kaye +162 over Kelly/Roberts