Sony Open
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- Start date
Round 1 play (4pts):
Vijay Singh to beat Roberto Castro +100 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Castro who ended the 2013 season in good form, but that season ended in September and he has played in just one Tour event in the meantime, finishing 35th in the no-cut CIMB Classic in October. That is certainly not the case with the Fijian who is one of the hardest-working pros on Tour. It was understandable that he lost some form with the deer antler stray controversy and the filing of his lawsuit against the PGA Tour in May, but he finished the year busy on the golf course and in good form, finishing 2nd in the Frys.com Open and 3rd in the Talisker Masters in Australia. He should do well in an event in which he has made 15 cuts in 16 appearances, including a victory (2005); the same cannot be said for Castro who has finished mc-51st in his two previous appearances here.
Vijay Singh to beat Roberto Castro +100 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Castro who ended the 2013 season in good form, but that season ended in September and he has played in just one Tour event in the meantime, finishing 35th in the no-cut CIMB Classic in October. That is certainly not the case with the Fijian who is one of the hardest-working pros on Tour. It was understandable that he lost some form with the deer antler stray controversy and the filing of his lawsuit against the PGA Tour in May, but he finished the year busy on the golf course and in good form, finishing 2nd in the Frys.com Open and 3rd in the Talisker Masters in Australia. He should do well in an event in which he has made 15 cuts in 16 appearances, including a victory (2005); the same cannot be said for Castro who has finished mc-51st in his two previous appearances here.
Zach Johnson(10/1) e.w.
- - I loved everything about Zach's chances last week except the fact the tournament was at Kapalua. Winning on that venue confirms for the umpteenth time in recent months how far removed his game is from the start of last year. Now he gets a tailor-made venue, where accurate driving is much more important, and holing putts is more important and way easier . . . Not only do I see value in this price, but I went looking for value in the coming majors.
Jordan Spieth(16/1) e.w.
- - In watching the TV coverage at Kapalua, the first significant thing I heard about Spieth was that he's been working on a change to his grip. So then I go looking and read the following: "He (Spieth) has never played this much tournament golf in one year, and one of the challenges was keeping his swing consistent for weeks at a time. He worked his grip, the way he loaded his weight taking the club back so he could flatten his swing and hit his natural draw. "I still don't own my swing yet," said Spieth, who at least now owns his own house. "The good news is I'm able to make it work if things aren't going well."" Then next I hear it reported that Spieth says he shouldn't make many bogies this week (at Kapalua) as long as he's not missing the huge fairways. And in fact he led the field with only two bogies . . . So the guy is working on grip/swing changes, but he really doesn't expect to make any bogies. Some how I find that disconnect rather telling . . . IMO Zach definitely played the best golf last week, but Spieth definitely would have won if he had putted like Zach, and the guy is a very good putter. So on balance, I'll look for Spieth to flex his muscles again this week.
Brian Gay(40/1) e.w.
- - Seems an obvious pick.
Jerry Kelly(125/1) e.w.
- - Seems a good pick.
Carl Pettersson(80/1) e.w.
- - Might be a decent pick.
K.J. Choi(66/1) e.w.
- - Throwing darts with my eyes closed.
Also . . .
Zach Johnson(66/1) e.w. 143rd Open Championship
- - It would take a perfect storm of firm conditions and difficult weather for me to ever put Zach on the short list of favorites at Augusta, and then, probably not. Pinehurst also seems a stretch as being a good fit for Zach. On the other hand, Royal Liverpool, whether firm and fast, or thick from downpours, seems a decent fit (and easily offers the best odds), so I'm lumping on, and I believe there is a good chance Zach will also be flexing his Ryder Cup chops around the time of the John Deere Classic.
GL
- - I loved everything about Zach's chances last week except the fact the tournament was at Kapalua. Winning on that venue confirms for the umpteenth time in recent months how far removed his game is from the start of last year. Now he gets a tailor-made venue, where accurate driving is much more important, and holing putts is more important and way easier . . . Not only do I see value in this price, but I went looking for value in the coming majors.
Jordan Spieth(16/1) e.w.
- - In watching the TV coverage at Kapalua, the first significant thing I heard about Spieth was that he's been working on a change to his grip. So then I go looking and read the following: "He (Spieth) has never played this much tournament golf in one year, and one of the challenges was keeping his swing consistent for weeks at a time. He worked his grip, the way he loaded his weight taking the club back so he could flatten his swing and hit his natural draw. "I still don't own my swing yet," said Spieth, who at least now owns his own house. "The good news is I'm able to make it work if things aren't going well."" Then next I hear it reported that Spieth says he shouldn't make many bogies this week (at Kapalua) as long as he's not missing the huge fairways. And in fact he led the field with only two bogies . . . So the guy is working on grip/swing changes, but he really doesn't expect to make any bogies. Some how I find that disconnect rather telling . . . IMO Zach definitely played the best golf last week, but Spieth definitely would have won if he had putted like Zach, and the guy is a very good putter. So on balance, I'll look for Spieth to flex his muscles again this week.
Brian Gay(40/1) e.w.
- - Seems an obvious pick.
Jerry Kelly(125/1) e.w.
- - Seems a good pick.
Carl Pettersson(80/1) e.w.
- - Might be a decent pick.
K.J. Choi(66/1) e.w.
- - Throwing darts with my eyes closed.
Also . . .
Zach Johnson(66/1) e.w. 143rd Open Championship
- - It would take a perfect storm of firm conditions and difficult weather for me to ever put Zach on the short list of favorites at Augusta, and then, probably not. Pinehurst also seems a stretch as being a good fit for Zach. On the other hand, Royal Liverpool, whether firm and fast, or thick from downpours, seems a decent fit (and easily offers the best odds), so I'm lumping on, and I believe there is a good chance Zach will also be flexing his Ryder Cup chops around the time of the John Deere Classic.
GL
TOURNAMENT
R. SABBATINI (+101) over M. LEISHMAN
J. PETERSON (-106) over D. HEARN
ROUND 1
R. SABBATINI (+124) over C. KIRK
R. SABBATINI (+101) over M. LEISHMAN
J. PETERSON (-106) over D. HEARN
ROUND 1
R. SABBATINI (+124) over C. KIRK
Round 2 plays (4pts):
Adam Scott to beat Matt Kuchar -125 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, Bet365 and Carib]
Scott hit his drive further than Kuchar yesterday, hit more fairways and greens than Kuchar yesterday, had fewer putts in total and per GIR than Kuchar yesterday, plus he ranked 1st in scrambling and sand saves. Given those stats, it is surprising that he only beat Kuchar by one shot yesterday. If these two continue to play anything like yesterday, this should be an easy win for the Australian.
Vijay Singh to beat Scott Brown -116 @ Bet365
Singh wasn't at his best on the greens yesterday, but he should again shoot a lower score than Brown who finished ahead of just five players last week and ahead of just three players in his sole previous visit to Waialae GC.
John Huh to beat D.A. Points -120 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]
Opposing another player who struggled last week - Points finished ahead of just one player - and he sits now in 65th position after playing in the much easier morning conditions in rd1. Given that no-one hit less greens in regulation yesterday than Points, it is a surprise that he is as high as 65th on the leaderboard so he is opposed with Huh who was very accurate from tee-to-green yesterday, but was let down on the greens.
Adam Scott to beat Matt Kuchar -125 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, Bet365 and Carib]
Scott hit his drive further than Kuchar yesterday, hit more fairways and greens than Kuchar yesterday, had fewer putts in total and per GIR than Kuchar yesterday, plus he ranked 1st in scrambling and sand saves. Given those stats, it is surprising that he only beat Kuchar by one shot yesterday. If these two continue to play anything like yesterday, this should be an easy win for the Australian.
Vijay Singh to beat Scott Brown -116 @ Bet365
Singh wasn't at his best on the greens yesterday, but he should again shoot a lower score than Brown who finished ahead of just five players last week and ahead of just three players in his sole previous visit to Waialae GC.
John Huh to beat D.A. Points -120 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]
Opposing another player who struggled last week - Points finished ahead of just one player - and he sits now in 65th position after playing in the much easier morning conditions in rd1. Given that no-one hit less greens in regulation yesterday than Points, it is a surprise that he is as high as 65th on the leaderboard so he is opposed with Huh who was very accurate from tee-to-green yesterday, but was let down on the greens.
Third Round Match-Ups
R. Allenby beat SY. Noh +105
B. Martin beat B. Todd +110
J. Leonard beat R. Palmer +120
M. Every beat Z. Johnson +140
B. Stuard beat M. Leishman +100
R. Barnes beat J. Peterson +130
J. Overton beat M. Kuchar +140
R. Allenby beat SY. Noh +105
B. Martin beat B. Todd +110
J. Leonard beat R. Palmer +120
M. Every beat Z. Johnson +140
B. Stuard beat M. Leishman +100
R. Barnes beat J. Peterson +130
J. Overton beat M. Kuchar +140
$100.00 $600.00 Pending 1/11/14 1:50pm Golf PGA Sony Open - Harris English +600
$111.00 $1,037.85 Pending 1/11/14 1:50pm Golf PGA Sony Open - Brian Stuard +935
$111.00 $1,037.85 Pending 1/11/14 1:50pm Golf PGA Sony Open - Brian Stuard +935
Round 3 plays (4pts):
Matt Kuchar to beat Jeff Overton -165 @ Carib [also available @ 5Dimes]
Overton hasn't finished ahead of Kuchar in any event since May 2013 and, given that Kuch has finished 7th or better in his last four events and in his last two visits to Waialae, I don't see that run ending this week.
Adam Scott to beat Chris Kirk -138 @ Stan James
There is a similar dominance in this matchup with Scott finishing ahead of Kirk in nine of their last eleven common events. Both are in 5th place at the cut, but I'll back Scott to stay there today. Last week's 6th place finish was the first time in five events that he hadn't finished in the top-3.
Adam Scott to beat Harris English -140 @ 5Dimes [also available @ William Hill and Carib]
English also sits inside the top-5, but given that he ranked 73rd in driving distance, 103rd in driving accuracy and 60th in greens in regulation over the first two days, it is clearly not because of his ball-striking that he is in this position. He'll need to play far better to stay in the top-5 and provide a match for the World #2.
Matt Kuchar to beat Jason Dufner -116 @ Bet365
Dufner doesn't have a particularly good record on this course and his accuracy stats have been far worse than even those of English, so I'll gladly oppose him in this round.
Matt Every to beat Jerry Kelly -125 @ Stan James
No doubting Kelly's form in this event, but that was a decade ago. Every played much better yesterday and look far more likely to move into the top-10 on the leaderboard from this position.
Matt Kuchar to beat Jeff Overton -165 @ Carib [also available @ 5Dimes]
Overton hasn't finished ahead of Kuchar in any event since May 2013 and, given that Kuch has finished 7th or better in his last four events and in his last two visits to Waialae, I don't see that run ending this week.
Adam Scott to beat Chris Kirk -138 @ Stan James
There is a similar dominance in this matchup with Scott finishing ahead of Kirk in nine of their last eleven common events. Both are in 5th place at the cut, but I'll back Scott to stay there today. Last week's 6th place finish was the first time in five events that he hadn't finished in the top-3.
Adam Scott to beat Harris English -140 @ 5Dimes [also available @ William Hill and Carib]
English also sits inside the top-5, but given that he ranked 73rd in driving distance, 103rd in driving accuracy and 60th in greens in regulation over the first two days, it is clearly not because of his ball-striking that he is in this position. He'll need to play far better to stay in the top-5 and provide a match for the World #2.
Matt Kuchar to beat Jason Dufner -116 @ Bet365
Dufner doesn't have a particularly good record on this course and his accuracy stats have been far worse than even those of English, so I'll gladly oppose him in this round.
Matt Every to beat Jerry Kelly -125 @ Stan James
No doubting Kelly's form in this event, but that was a decade ago. Every played much better yesterday and look far more likely to move into the top-10 on the leaderboard from this position.
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$100.00 $1,000.00 Pending 1/12/14 12:50pm Golf PGA Sony Open - Jimmy Walker +1000
$15.00 $570.00 Pending 1/12/14 12:50pm Golf PGA Sony Open - Hideto Tanihara +3800
$15.00 $825.00 Pending 1/12/14 12:50pm Golf PGA Sony Open - Robert Allenby +5500
$15.00 $570.00 Pending 1/12/14 12:50pm Golf PGA Sony Open - Hideto Tanihara +3800
$15.00 $825.00 Pending 1/12/14 12:50pm Golf PGA Sony Open - Robert Allenby +5500
Round 4 plays (4pts):
Jason Kokrak to beat John Daly -160 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib]
Standard to oppose the player who shot the low score in the previous round; it's been a long time since I've had the opportunity to oppose Daly in the final round of a tournament.
Zach Johnson to beat Jason Dufner -133 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James and Carib]
Dufner didn't make very much progress yesterday whereas Johnson got to within three shots of the lead and is now in with a realistic chance of winning his third event in a row. In this form, and as a former winner on this course (2009), I expect him to be a strong challenger today.
Jeff Overton to beat John Peterson -125 @ Bet365
Overton has hit his drives further and hit more fairways and greens that Peterson so far this week so is clearly playing better than his opponent who is making his debut on this course; Overton finished in the top-10 last year.
Marc Leishman to beat Ryan Palmer -120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James and Carib]
Palmer is a former winner here (2010), but he has just one top-50 finish in his other seven appearances on this course. That contrasts sharply with Leishman who has finished 12th, 20th, 27th and 9th in his four visits. Together with a 6-2-2 h2h record in rd4 last year, the value should be with the Australian in this matchup.
Tim Wilkinson to beat Y.E. Yang -125 @ 5Dimes
Two players further down the leaderboard, but Yang is the player more opposable. He is in the last year of his Tour exemption as the 2009 PGA Champion, but he has been very short of form for some time: since finishing 66th in the Canadian Open in July, he has failed to even match that position in any PGA Tour event.
Jason Kokrak to beat John Daly -160 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib]
Standard to oppose the player who shot the low score in the previous round; it's been a long time since I've had the opportunity to oppose Daly in the final round of a tournament.
Zach Johnson to beat Jason Dufner -133 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James and Carib]
Dufner didn't make very much progress yesterday whereas Johnson got to within three shots of the lead and is now in with a realistic chance of winning his third event in a row. In this form, and as a former winner on this course (2009), I expect him to be a strong challenger today.
Jeff Overton to beat John Peterson -125 @ Bet365
Overton has hit his drives further and hit more fairways and greens that Peterson so far this week so is clearly playing better than his opponent who is making his debut on this course; Overton finished in the top-10 last year.
Marc Leishman to beat Ryan Palmer -120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James and Carib]
Palmer is a former winner here (2010), but he has just one top-50 finish in his other seven appearances on this course. That contrasts sharply with Leishman who has finished 12th, 20th, 27th and 9th in his four visits. Together with a 6-2-2 h2h record in rd4 last year, the value should be with the Australian in this matchup.
Tim Wilkinson to beat Y.E. Yang -125 @ 5Dimes
Two players further down the leaderboard, but Yang is the player more opposable. He is in the last year of his Tour exemption as the 2009 PGA Champion, but he has been very short of form for some time: since finishing 66th in the Canadian Open in July, he has failed to even match that position in any PGA Tour event.
Well Crap..Close again. I was able to get JJ at +840, put 20 bucks on that but was unable to post. I covered my other stuff. Off to work, I hate 3rd shift but at 8 I love it. Next Week Boys
