Soul searching: "How can I win at this?"

[yyz]

I never did wager on sports with the idea that I would "make a living" at it, or even put some extra spending cash in my pocket. I did it because it was fun.

You know what? Losing is starting to become "un-fun".

I have looked back on my mistakes of the past, and figured that the same ones always pop up over, and over again.

Thus, if I am to become serious about making my bankroll last, and perhaps turning a profit at some point in time, I need to adhere to some steadfast rules. Yes, sometimes when all else fails, I think going back to the basics is the tonic needed to get the mindset back.

The "Big 6" of errors I have found to be my downfall are as follows:

• The Chase
  
  I told you last week about this. It is one of the deadliest sins in wagering. I know all of you have great stories to tell about how you got pounded all weekend, and summoned up the courage to bet the farm on the Monday night game. BINGO! You won, and all the weekends worries vanished! Sure it happens, but when it doesn't, it smarts like a bitch. My ass was smarting last week.
  
• Wagering with limited, or no knowledge.
  
  I don't win doing this. The game becomes a dart game, not a smarts game. There is no way I would pick a stock out of the paper, and risk money on it "just because", but I do it every day on a sports wager or ten!
  
  "The game I like starts at 3:00, so I'll bet some of the early game sto get some 'seed'".
  
  This is so stupid....it has to stop.
  
• Making too many wagers.
  
  Again.....betting for the sake of betting. The juice will, and has killed me.
  
• Wagering on bets other than sides and totals.
  
  Props, quartes, half-times.....forget it! These teams only care about the score at the end of the game. If you have Old U -3' at the half, and they are down by 3, they aint looking for a td to cover! These bets have their place and time, but over all, I don't need to make them.....hard enough to predict the outcome, let alone what they will do all game!
  
• Not setting goals.
  
  I need to have standards. Win this much, lose that much, and move on.
  
• "Manage the Cabbage"
  
  I can't wager without a proper bet/bankroll ratio.

There is the starting point. Now for the plan:

------------------------------------

Starting with a $1000 bankroll, I will take you on an 8 week journey. I will document every single play I make over this period, and I will be looking for your feedback! Not on my plays, mind you, but rather my methodology, money management, and such.

My goal is simple: Be + units at the end of eight weeks. To help accomplish this, I will make a maximum of 10 wagers per week. The week will go Monday through Sunday. I am using 10, because that is a solid ammount of games to handicap. I can put my heart and soul into that few games. Solid homework leads to solid handicapping. Some weeks will see less than 10 wagers, as I will be up for the week, and willing to stop.

I am sure you will se plenty of Bucks and Packer games chosen, as they are my bread and butter. But, as I said before...."Go with what you know!"

"Less is more" will hopefuly work on this venture. If it does, I will be a better, and wiser handicapper for it.(Perhaps I will gain "cult status"!)

We are constantly learning at this. All of us! I hope this scaled down approach pans out for me, and again, I am looking forward to your feedback and ideas on this, so I can fine tune it.

This might be something most of us can use....who knows?

With that I will close, and you will see my posts as the weeks go by, with an up to date account of my progress. I will still give leans on games, but you will know if it is an official play.

 

[deportes]

Sounds very reasonable, hope we can all learn something.

 

[BahamaMama]

just lookin' for a *sneak preview* here, yyz, who ya gonna take in the GB/Chi game?

 

[phoenix566]

good luck yyz....if you have the disipline to stay the course, I am sure you will be successful.

a great mentor of mine taught me these rules many moons ago. seem easy to follow in principle, but o so hard sometimes in practice, especially if you are a degenerate like myself.

that being said, I'll give you my favorite quote by him:

"do as I say, not as I do"

wish I had the disipline to 'always' listen....but am getting better (only chased and got bit once this year - but o did it smart!)

and by the way, you forgot one bullet point which is my personal favorite:

* Try and stay clear of too much chalk!! Not a fun 'substance' to choke on

I'm eager to monitor your progress and will try and give feedback when I deem appropriate. I am another good example of do as I say........

 

[yyz]

Thank you guys!

Mama.....early line

Green Bay -3' o/u 36

I think the bears will go undefeated between now and then, and the Packers will lose 2.

 

[hello there]

Ab-so-fuggin'-lootly!!!

 

[Code Red]

yyz good luck to you man. That post hit too close to home. A couple more items you could have included.....

Parlays and teasers...stay away from them they are death.

 

[yyz]

95% of my bets are straights

 

[Code Red]

I hear ya. From now on, 100% of mine will be. I got destroyed on teasers yesterday

 

[Gatorbait]

This is sumthing we should all probably do. Good luck.

 

[goofy]

i think the biggest thing for me is number of games. when i bet 2 games, i usually go 2-0. the problem is I can never get it down to two games. "well this one looks almost as good as that one, I think it's a solid play too, I'll play it".

as a result, i limit myself to no more than 5 plays on a busy weeknight (usually only 3)and no more than 7 on a busy weekend day.

I broke down for the first time in months this past sat (college football, basketball, nba, man too much). What happened? I went 4-2-1 on my first 7 rated selections, 2-4 on the last 6. proves a point.

nolan wrote a good article where he talked about playing alot of games, then realized the amount of money he was paying in the juice along, regardless of winning pct.

good luck.

 

[Skinar]

yyz, that was a great post and I wish you the best of luck. I'm looking forward to see your results. Having said that, here's something I learned from a long-time handicapper:

HOW MANY GAMES SHOULD YOU PLAY?

I've seen every answer in the book for this one but only one that has made sense. First, you hit the nail on the head yyz when you said you should never bet a game on a hunch, it's just a guess then and you'll get killed. On the other hand, IF you had the time to research every game, and your methods yielded, on average, 55% winners, how many of your final selections should you play? Answer - all of them. Why? Let's assume there is a sack with 100 golf balls in it, 55 are white and 45 are black. Every time you pull out a white one you get $100 then you put it back in the sack. Every time you pull out a black one you pay $110 and put it back in the sack. Get it? No matter what happens, you want to pull as many of those golf balls as possible because in the long run you will end up making money. The key to this philosophy, though, is to only include those games which are properly handicapped as possibilities. IF you stop your handicapping after you have reached 10 selections for a week AND you have time to do more handicapping, you MAY be hurting yourself more than helping. Which is better, 55% or 60%? Depends upon the number of selections. If you hit 60% of 10 selections per week (which would be really hard to do on a consistent basis), you would yield 1.6 units profit. If I hit 55% of 30 plays per week, I will yield 1.65 units.

Now, having said all that, I think it is a good idea to stick with you 10 play limitation, but track any other play you felt might have been worthwhile. Why? You'll find out if your handicapping methods are succesful or not. If you can't pick at least 52.4% winners against an 11/10 line it doesn't matter what methods you use, it doesn't matter how you manage your money, you're going to end up losing.

Sorry for being a windbag.

 

[Nick Douglas]

yyz,

Good idea and I am very curious to see how you do. Only suggestion i would make is to try it over an even longer period of time than eight weeks. All it takes is one hot or cold streak in that time to throw the results off.

 

[yyz]

Skinner,

Great popint about handicapping more if you can. I know my time restraints, though, and will stick with a 10 game max. ( I may never do 10 games!) You are correct though....if you have the time, you might as well do the capping!

Nick,

You have a good point, too, but this is a "one step at a time" method. I guess from the day you place your 1st wager, til the day you place your last, is the only true scorecard.

I just plan to aim for a small vicory, and let them add up, with any luck.

The 10 game a week/ 8 week max, also limits my liability.

To all of the rest of you, thank you for you support, and I hope this proves beneficial to us all!

By the way....the week did satrt yesterday, but I had no plays.

 

[Sports Junkie]

Good luck with your approach. I won't go into all the detail, but I adopted something very similar after learning the hard way and losing an entire bankroll during College Bowl season. I did not do it as an experiment, but rather as my full time approach. Never more than 1 unit per play and limiting the number of wagers. It is a marathon not a sprint. Good luck, yyz.

 

[Anders]

I'll follow u with interest yyz.

I did the same thing starting six weeks ago.

I'd had a break from it, thought hard about if it was what I wanted to do and decided not only did I wanted to do it, I wanted to do it expertly and eventually do it fulltime.

So in chosing that path, I had to make sure I got all the basics right - many of them are as you mentioned in your initial post, concerning things like money management and discipline.

Six weeks down the track, things are fruitful. I have made a fraction over 35 units betting $500 per wager, so that has resulted in a very tidy sum of cash. Some weeks I've made over a dozen units, some weeks I've lost a couple - I haven't struck a very bad week yet but I know it will arrive and is probably only just lurking close around the corner.

I have done some things differetnly however. I needed to look closely ar ROI - if I am going to make it my livelihood, I need to ensure there is a sufficient turnover of income.

Therefore, my weekly wagers usually average out to around 50 plays. Some days there are only two or three, some days there may be 15, and I have at least one full day off a week where I give everything a miss altogether.

That means that maybe I don't have every single piece of info I should before making a play. I can live with that if I'm hitting 55/56% as a sacrifice of 60% let's say.

I am also playing other people's picks. Many would consider that professional suicide in this game. I don't. If you can use the skills and wisdom of people like Stan in the golf forum and he and 1837 in the motor racing forum, Turtle on NBA totals etc, I think it can be an excellent source of revenue - as long as you keep the mindset that these people do not owe you a cent.

I wish you luck in your endeavours - it has certainly sharpened my perspective on things. The hardest thing to control, of course, is your emotions. Master them and you're nearly there.

And please, most of all, all of us here at Madjacks would be devastated if this effected your sense of humour

GL mate

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 11-21-2001).]

 

[goofy]

hey, yyz,

why don't you start a thread somewhere, maybe here, where all the documentation of your test goes. That way we can all follow and root you on.

For my part, if i get a play I really like i'll post a thread with something like "yyz's run or whatever".

Must tell you up front, i'm an average capper but do have some small success and want to try and help. Many's the time I'm sitting around and wonder "if i only had one play today, which would it be and if so and so had one play today only one wonder who he'd play".

i know we have pod's but it seems like some days they fall by the way side or whatever and alot of times people can't just single it down to one play like myself.

good luck

g

[This message has been edited by goofy (edited 11-21-2001).]

 

[kcwolf]

yyz,

Wish you the best on your endeaver!

You bring up very solid points and just want to say a few words about comments from Skinar and Anders.

I agree with Skinar all the way. I'm sure their are several of you out that say "look at kcwolf, he plays way to many games"! Well, if you know what your doing - winning at a decent percentage, one should do it. Skinar's point, reiterated.

I think about it all the time though, as we all should. A part of me says play 3-5 games on a busy CBB/NBA night - 8 units to 14 units a play. I normally play 2-6 units per game, sometimes 8 units, and have played a 15-20 unit play on very rare occasions.

I should add, I maintain a minimum bankroll of 200 units.

Playing 2-3 percent per play is very reasonable, speaking again of your entire bankroll. Every one should strive for that number. I prefer 1-2% per play. It allows me to sleep every night, and play more games I've studied.

I, personally, spend a decent amount of time studing (handicapping) every game I play. That should be the golden rule, as you say yyz.

Yes, I always consider plays from a limited few, solid cappers here, only after I put my own "sweat" into the play.

Do your homework first.

I'll end this thread with a little controversy.

Point 1: Been doing this too long to respect people that bitch or whine about their losses.

Emailed Nick Douglas about a month ago on this subject, mabe longer.

Most important thing you can do is bet within your means and have NO emotion win or lose. Mastering that skill will go a LONG way!

Point 2: You have to rate your plays! Rating plays only comes through experience.

Nothing wrong with varying amount per play if your reasnons are solid.

My mentor was and still is one of the best.

That last comment only pertains to someone who wants to do this for a living. Anders wrote - that was his desire.

A 4-2 night, net loss is not fun. A 2-4 night, net win happens also.

Just need to know what your doing and put tons of work into it. Guess that's all I'm saying.

Happy TDay and love your families. Say thanks for our brave women and men on tops, ships, & in the air.