South Africa v All Blacks, Cape Town
South Africa +4.5
The key aspect in this Tri-Series opener appears certain to be the weather and ground conditions. Cape Town is experiencing its wettest July in more than 40 years, with 182mm of rain to date (avg monthly - 92m) with winds up to 80 knots.
Even if the weather improves prior to game time, conditions at Newlands are bound to be soggy/heavy underfoot.
On a dry ground I'd back the All Blacks, but the wet will weaken the advantages they have over the more sluggish home team. The visitors expected South Africa to attack them up front and the weather has only strengthened that theory.
That's the key reason behind the selection of the halfback/first-five positions for the ABs, with Justin Marshall and Tony Brown preferred over Byron Kelleher and Andrew Mehrtens due to their ability to do plenty of stout tackling around the ruck and mauls to repel the big Bok loose forwards and first-five Butch James.
The ABs have been steady without being sensational in their first three tests of the season - warm-up thumpings of Manu Samoa and Argentina and a late-ish but comfortable win over a weakened French. The Boks have been decidedly dodgy; sharing the home test series v France 1-1 and not being too convincing over a poor Italian team until late.
Coach Harry Viljoen has been under fire over his selections for both political and form reasons and has made 10 changes for this game from the match v Italy. Most interestingly, he has bought in two players who didn't even feature in the Super 12 for the SA sides - centre Marius Joubert (injury) and hooker Lukas van Biljon (form) and it seems he is already looking ahead to the 2003 World Cup.
I believe the ABs have a distinct advantage in the backs but may not get the chance to utilise that. Their forward pack still has plenty of question marks over it at set-piece and maul time and the likes of Ron Cribb and Troy Flavell have much more appeal as dry-track performers.
But the Boks don't actually instill fear either with their line-up.
At this stage I'm tempted on a wager on the All Blacks. Keep an eye out for updates closer to game time.
South Africa +4.5
The key aspect in this Tri-Series opener appears certain to be the weather and ground conditions. Cape Town is experiencing its wettest July in more than 40 years, with 182mm of rain to date (avg monthly - 92m) with winds up to 80 knots.
Even if the weather improves prior to game time, conditions at Newlands are bound to be soggy/heavy underfoot.
On a dry ground I'd back the All Blacks, but the wet will weaken the advantages they have over the more sluggish home team. The visitors expected South Africa to attack them up front and the weather has only strengthened that theory.
That's the key reason behind the selection of the halfback/first-five positions for the ABs, with Justin Marshall and Tony Brown preferred over Byron Kelleher and Andrew Mehrtens due to their ability to do plenty of stout tackling around the ruck and mauls to repel the big Bok loose forwards and first-five Butch James.
The ABs have been steady without being sensational in their first three tests of the season - warm-up thumpings of Manu Samoa and Argentina and a late-ish but comfortable win over a weakened French. The Boks have been decidedly dodgy; sharing the home test series v France 1-1 and not being too convincing over a poor Italian team until late.
Coach Harry Viljoen has been under fire over his selections for both political and form reasons and has made 10 changes for this game from the match v Italy. Most interestingly, he has bought in two players who didn't even feature in the Super 12 for the SA sides - centre Marius Joubert (injury) and hooker Lukas van Biljon (form) and it seems he is already looking ahead to the 2003 World Cup.
I believe the ABs have a distinct advantage in the backs but may not get the chance to utilise that. Their forward pack still has plenty of question marks over it at set-piece and maul time and the likes of Ron Cribb and Troy Flavell have much more appeal as dry-track performers.
But the Boks don't actually instill fear either with their line-up.
At this stage I'm tempted on a wager on the All Blacks. Keep an eye out for updates closer to game time.
