South African Airways Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Justin Rose to win 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Bet365 and Stan James
Born in Johannesburg, he loves playing in this country and competed fully on the Southern African Tour in 2002 when he finished 2nd on the Order of Merit, winning twice. He has finished 2nd in two starts in these co-sanctioned events and similarly had two top-10 finishes in them last year. Should be priced at no more than 14/1 IMO.

Hennie Otto to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Didn't make too much of an impact on the European Challenge Tour last year, but has a very good record in his home country, winning five times on this Tour. He finished 2nd in his last start, the co-sanctioned Hong Kong Open last month, so is in good enough form to contend on home soil once again.

David Howell to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
2003 saw something of a renaissance in Howell's game and he even qualified for his first WGC event last year as well. His previous form in South Africa is respectable with top-20 finishes in both the co-sanctioned events last year, including last year's Open on this course, and he has maintained his confidence over the winter, he could be a regular contender in these Southern Hemisphere events.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Bradley Dredge to beat Charl Schwartzel -110 @ Sirbet
Schwartzel shot to prominence with a 3rd place finish in this event last year, but he has struggled greatly on the European Tour and has been unable to recapture his form on home soil either. Since last year's event he has finished outside the top-10 in four Southern Africa Tour events and finished only 16th in the British Open qualifying event last week. Dredge is just very consistent, both in Europe and when in South Africa.
(also available at Pinnacle)

Paul McGinley to beat David Frost +105 @ Pinnacle [2 units]
McGinley has a very good record in events in South Africa, very rarely finishing outside the top-25 and while his form last year was disappointing, it was at least equal to that of Frost, who has played in South Africa only once in the last three years, missing the cut in the 2001 South African PGA Championship. Too attractive odds to ignore.
(also available at Sirbet)

Paul McGinley to beat Soren Hansen -118 @ Expekt [2 units]
It was an even more disappointing 2003 for Hansen, who won the Irish Open in 2002. Given that he has only made the weekend once in six starts in this country, this should be another difficult week for the Dane.

David Howell to beat Jarrod Moseley -111 @ Centrebet
Moseley is certainly in good form, but is opposed here because he has yet to play in South Africa. Experience is needed on the grasses on these courses and it is only Howell in this matchup who has that. Siding again with the outright selection who was a top-15 finisher on this course last year.

David Howell to beat Maarten Lafeber -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Lafeber has been very competitive when in Europe and currently stands 6th in both the European Tour's Ryder Cup Lists, but he has certainly struggled on South African courses. In seven starts, he has failed to reach the weekend on three occasions and has a best finish of 22nd. He will also be making his debut on this course and so is another who is opposed with an outright selection.

Justin Rose to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Similar story in opposing Jimenez. He finished the 2003 in great form, but has poor form in South Africa and has yet to play this course. His only starts on the Southern Africa Tour were two events in 1996 when he missed the cut and finished 35th. He has also played in the Sun City Challenge twice (1999 and 2000), but on both occasions finished outside the top-10 in a very small field. Have to side with an outright selection again.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (1 unit e.w.)

J. Kingston - 40/1 @ Victor Chandler
A. Roestoff - 100/1 @ Victor Chandler
J. Moseley - 40/1 @ Victor Chandler
J M Lara - 150/1 @ Victor Chandler
D. Frost - 66/1 @ Victor Chandler

There are several other players I like for this, including Otto, Forsyth and Terblanche, but I'll leave my official postings as above.

Good Luck!

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Rodiles 66 0.5u ew

 

[lostinamerica]

Carlos Rodiles(66/1) for 0.5* e.w. @ 5 dimes
That's where my speculative instincts directed my marker. I'm looking forward to some television coverage and a chance to get some real skinny on who's been doing what.

GL

 

[hoss]

2 matches for me this week:

3pts Kingston v R.Karlsson 9/10 B+W
2 pts Rose v Monty 9/10 B+W/VC

Outrights: 3x0.25pts e/w Kingston @ 50/1, Maritz @150/1, Otto@33/1

good luck
hoss

ps Stan - I think I understand your scoring now :tongue !

 

[british bulldog]

South African Open Selections


1 point EW Montgomerie 20/1

1 point EW Jimenez 28/1

1 point EW Rose 20/1

1 point EW Howell 40/1

0.5 point EW Rodiles 66/1

 

[sports student]

2nd round:

Rose +162 over Kingston/Jimenez (sportingbet)
Howell +100 over Fraser/McLardy (bet365)

good luck

 

[sports student]

3rd round at bet365:

Lile +138 over Rumford

much higher rated player according to Stan's ratings who has shot 2 consistent rounds vs. Rumford up and down.

 

[sports student]

3rd round at sportingbet:

Otto -120 over Botes

ties lose both this bet and one above



good luck

 

[lostinamerica]

3rd Round for 1* @ 5 dimes:

Van Rensburg(-112) over Wakefield
Jacquelin(-112) over Otto

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

4th Round plays that seem in order also seem worth a shot:

Immelman(-117) over Westwood for 1* @ 5 dimes

GL

 

[lal2000]

A total collapse by Hansen on the last few holes handed the Tournament to Immelman, who himself played exceptionally well. I was please with Forsyth's finish (unposted, but mentioned) which helped make up for some of my more sad selections. Overall a difficult outing.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -3.00 units

Rose 23rd
Otto 16th
Howell 38th

Not too close in the end. Otto had been 3rd after one round, but then struggled until Sunday and while Rose did get as high as 7th early in the last round, he was always going backwards thereafter. Ironic that the clear leader in the ratings won the event.

Matchups - Final update: 4-1-1; +6.94 units

Dredge/Schwartzel LOST by 2
McGinley/Frost WON by 5
McGinley/Hansen WON by 5
Howell/Moseley TIED (Dead-heat)
Howell/Lafeber WON by 1
Rose/Jimenez WON by 1

Good return on the matchups to more than offset the losses on the outrights. Was rather glad that there were no more than 18 holes in the last round. Howell almost surrendered both his wins when he dropped five shots over the last seven holes and Rose just hung on to beat Jimenez by a shot after dropping three shots over the same stretch.