Very early start from Chandlers this week - the 40/1 Mark McNulty looks big; he is in form and unlike many 49 year olds, he doesn't look like he's saving himself for the Champions Tour just yet.
South African Airways
- Thread starter Clive
- Start date
Final selections for me
Schwartzel - 100/1 - just in case
McNulty - backed at 40/1 and then took the 60 at BF (oh and a little bit of 65) - just seems a big price for someone of his calibre even if he is 49
Park 100/1 - has played well fresh in SA before and showed signs of coming back to life at the end of last year.
Dunlap - the 100/1 was too big for his record in SA
Mouland - 200/1 - unusual choice I know but has made the frame 3x in the last 2 years and has played well in SA + he broke his 14 year drought when winning the Mauritius Open before Xmas
Schwartzel - 100/1 - just in case
McNulty - backed at 40/1 and then took the 60 at BF (oh and a little bit of 65) - just seems a big price for someone of his calibre even if he is 49
Park 100/1 - has played well fresh in SA before and showed signs of coming back to life at the end of last year.
Dunlap - the 100/1 was too big for his record in SA
Mouland - 200/1 - unusual choice I know but has made the frame 3x in the last 2 years and has played well in SA + he broke his 14 year drought when winning the Mauritius Open before Xmas
Outright plays (0.75 units):
Justin Rose to win 10/1 e.w. @ BlueSq and UKBetting
Siding with players who have a good record in Sunshine Tour events and co-sanctioned events in particular. Johannesburg-born Rose played in four events on this Tour last year, winning twice (one of them a co-sanctioned event) to finish 2nd on the Sunshine Tour Order of Merit, and played in both co-sanctioned events in 2001 and finished 2nd in both of them. I had opposed him consistently after the death of his father, but he closed the season in good style in Japan and the new year brings a new focus. Together with Immelman, they are the class players in this field.
Trevor Immelman to win 12/1 e.w. @ BlueSq and UKBetting
I had been reluctant to back the South African given that his only two Tour wins have been in Africa, but on his return to that continent he deserves attention. He had a good season in Europe, finishing in the top-15 in the Volvo Order of Merit, but he is especially noteworthy this week because of everyone else's lack of course experience and his abundance. This was his home course as a youngster and though the grass on the greens has changed and the rough has thickened to Open standards, there is nothing like home cooking and home field advantage.
Anthony Wall to win 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler, BetDirect and Heathorns (still waiting on price from Paddy Power)
With the course set up to Open standards, a straight hitter like McNulty would have been a sensible option (40/1 with Paddy Power), but Wall gets the final berth instead. The simple reason, apart from the price, is that he has played in five co-sanctioned events in the last three years and finished in the top-5 on three occasions, including a win at the 2000 South African PGA Championship. He played particularly poorly last season in Europe after some very high finishes in South Africa and Australia, but he did finish 3rd in the Italian Open, his final 2002 European Tour season event so his confidence may have returned.
Justin Rose to win 10/1 e.w. @ BlueSq and UKBetting
Siding with players who have a good record in Sunshine Tour events and co-sanctioned events in particular. Johannesburg-born Rose played in four events on this Tour last year, winning twice (one of them a co-sanctioned event) to finish 2nd on the Sunshine Tour Order of Merit, and played in both co-sanctioned events in 2001 and finished 2nd in both of them. I had opposed him consistently after the death of his father, but he closed the season in good style in Japan and the new year brings a new focus. Together with Immelman, they are the class players in this field.
Trevor Immelman to win 12/1 e.w. @ BlueSq and UKBetting
I had been reluctant to back the South African given that his only two Tour wins have been in Africa, but on his return to that continent he deserves attention. He had a good season in Europe, finishing in the top-15 in the Volvo Order of Merit, but he is especially noteworthy this week because of everyone else's lack of course experience and his abundance. This was his home course as a youngster and though the grass on the greens has changed and the rough has thickened to Open standards, there is nothing like home cooking and home field advantage.
Anthony Wall to win 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler, BetDirect and Heathorns (still waiting on price from Paddy Power)
With the course set up to Open standards, a straight hitter like McNulty would have been a sensible option (40/1 with Paddy Power), but Wall gets the final berth instead. The simple reason, apart from the price, is that he has played in five co-sanctioned events in the last three years and finished in the top-5 on three occasions, including a win at the 2000 South African PGA Championship. He played particularly poorly last season in Europe after some very high finishes in South Africa and Australia, but he did finish 3rd in the Italian Open, his final 2002 European Tour season event so his confidence may have returned.
Matchup plays (0.75 units):
Simon Hurd to beat Matthew Blackey -110 @ SkyBet
Blackey should struggle on his first visit to Southern Africa. He missed the cut on his first visit to South-East Asia and acclimatization to the Tour and the conditions will be too much this week. Hurd is a regular on the Sunshine Tour and finished in the top-10 in both Tour events at the end of last year.
Simon Hurd to beat Michiel Bothma -111 @ BetandWin
Bothma was a surprise winner of the weak Telkom PGA Championship last year - he had had only two top-10 finishes in the previous three years on Tour - but this is a different matter. He has played in only one co-sanctioned event - last year's Dunhill Championship where he missed the cut - so could find the field somewhat daunting this week. Siding with the experienced Hurd again.
Tim Clark to beat Paul Casey -111 @ Ladbrokes
Opposing Casey because this is his first event in Southern Africa and siding with last year's Sunshine Tour Order of Merit winner who was very impressive in the EMC World Cup last month. Would rather he didn't have the pressure of being defending champion, but home advantage should be sufficient here.
Brian Davis to beat Paul Casey +100 @ Paddy Power
Good odds for a player who has four top-20 finishes in five co-sanctioned events in the last three years against a Southern Africa rookie. There is a worry with Davis that he doesn't grind out events and misses too many cuts, but he finished last season in good form and could get off to a quick start this year.
Roger Wessels to beat Graeme McDowell -125 @ Paddy Power
Disappointing season in Europe, but at his best at home. Wessels secured six top-15 finishes in seven starts on this Tour last year, including the two co-sanctioned events. Should win against McDowell who struggled badly after his win in the Scandinavian Masters and has yet to play in Southern Africa.
Des Terblanche to beat Charl Scwartzel -111 @ BetandWin
Again pitting experience against novice. Terblanche had a disappointing Davidoff Tour season, but did record six top-20 finishes in eight starts on the Sunshine Tour last year, including two top-3 finishes and 15th in this event last year. Schwartzel tied with him last year, but in his only other start on this Tour he finished 63rd in the Vodacom Players Championship last month. He won the English amateur strokeplay last year, so obviously has potential, but he missed the cut in the Hong Kong Open. He may repeat last year's performance, but not yet.
Simon Hurd to beat Matthew Blackey -110 @ SkyBet
Blackey should struggle on his first visit to Southern Africa. He missed the cut on his first visit to South-East Asia and acclimatization to the Tour and the conditions will be too much this week. Hurd is a regular on the Sunshine Tour and finished in the top-10 in both Tour events at the end of last year.
Simon Hurd to beat Michiel Bothma -111 @ BetandWin
Bothma was a surprise winner of the weak Telkom PGA Championship last year - he had had only two top-10 finishes in the previous three years on Tour - but this is a different matter. He has played in only one co-sanctioned event - last year's Dunhill Championship where he missed the cut - so could find the field somewhat daunting this week. Siding with the experienced Hurd again.
Tim Clark to beat Paul Casey -111 @ Ladbrokes
Opposing Casey because this is his first event in Southern Africa and siding with last year's Sunshine Tour Order of Merit winner who was very impressive in the EMC World Cup last month. Would rather he didn't have the pressure of being defending champion, but home advantage should be sufficient here.
Brian Davis to beat Paul Casey +100 @ Paddy Power
Good odds for a player who has four top-20 finishes in five co-sanctioned events in the last three years against a Southern Africa rookie. There is a worry with Davis that he doesn't grind out events and misses too many cuts, but he finished last season in good form and could get off to a quick start this year.
Roger Wessels to beat Graeme McDowell -125 @ Paddy Power
Disappointing season in Europe, but at his best at home. Wessels secured six top-15 finishes in seven starts on this Tour last year, including the two co-sanctioned events. Should win against McDowell who struggled badly after his win in the Scandinavian Masters and has yet to play in Southern Africa.
Des Terblanche to beat Charl Scwartzel -111 @ BetandWin
Again pitting experience against novice. Terblanche had a disappointing Davidoff Tour season, but did record six top-20 finishes in eight starts on the Sunshine Tour last year, including two top-3 finishes and 15th in this event last year. Schwartzel tied with him last year, but in his only other start on this Tour he finished 63rd in the Vodacom Players Championship last month. He won the English amateur strokeplay last year, so obviously has potential, but he missed the cut in the Hong Kong Open. He may repeat last year's performance, but not yet.
ew A Hansen 28/1
ew Wessels 66/1
ew McLardy 100/1
Ladbrokes this time...as I said, last time I will say unless I really hit a good one, then I will start to hint.
If I stop altogether, I have done my dough!
ew Wessels 66/1
ew McLardy 100/1
Ladbrokes this time...as I said, last time I will say unless I really hit a good one, then I will start to hint.
If I stop altogether, I have done my dough!
Bit a spare time so I thought I'd chip in!
2pts Davis v Westwood 9/10 Ladbrokes
2pts Coltart v Westwood 1/1 UK Betting
Read the following quote from Westwood + decided that he still wants opposing! He goes to David Leadbetter for a while after the next 2 tournaments to try and sort out his swing + it doesn't look like he's too concerned until then.
``I'm just playing these two weeks and then I don't know when I'll play again,'' Westwood told the Press Association.
``I'm going to see David at the end of January in Florida and then I've not got any tournaments scheduled until Dubai (March 6-9) maybe. We'll see how it goes.
``It's a bit earlier than I normally play so hopefully it will get me into the swing of things a bit earlier this year and maybe build up a bit of confidence. I played a few holes last week but that's been about it.''
also backed Terblanche / Robertson 11/10 Sporting Odds
good luck
hoss
2pts Davis v Westwood 9/10 Ladbrokes
2pts Coltart v Westwood 1/1 UK Betting
Read the following quote from Westwood + decided that he still wants opposing! He goes to David Leadbetter for a while after the next 2 tournaments to try and sort out his swing + it doesn't look like he's too concerned until then.
``I'm just playing these two weeks and then I don't know when I'll play again,'' Westwood told the Press Association.
``I'm going to see David at the end of January in Florida and then I've not got any tournaments scheduled until Dubai (March 6-9) maybe. We'll see how it goes.
``It's a bit earlier than I normally play so hopefully it will get me into the swing of things a bit earlier this year and maybe build up a bit of confidence. I played a few holes last week but that's been about it.''
also backed Terblanche / Robertson 11/10 Sporting Odds
good luck
hoss
matchups:
1 unit
Des Terblanche - Charl Schwartzel 1 1.90 bet&win
Gavin Levenson - Craig Lile 2 1.90 bet&win
Dougherty Nick - Webster Steve 2 1.85 expekt
0-0
1 unit
Des Terblanche - Charl Schwartzel 1 1.90 bet&win
Gavin Levenson - Craig Lile 2 1.90 bet&win
Dougherty Nick - Webster Steve 2 1.85 expekt
0-0
OUTRIGHTS:
Justin Rose (9/1) for 0.25* e.w. @ 5dimes
I didn't detect any theme last year that repeated itself more often than connections to home cooking. As near as I can tell, Justin spent the holidays reconnecting in the South Africa of his birth and likely reflecting on quite an eventful year. His character has been forged to my liking and his charisma on and off the course tell me something special may be in his destiny. I think Justin's talent is still in its raw stages and some time soon a period of refinement like Woods and Faldo and others needed will be recognized as a necessity to take his game to its highest levels. But for now, it's all to play for and a spirited finish to last year shouldn't hurt his chances in getting this season underway. While his driving accuracy can come and go, he also seems to play some of his best golf on some of the most modern courses.
Trevor Immelman(11/1) for 0.25 e.w. @ Bet365
I can't pass up one more play after the heads up from Stanley on all the intimate local connections. Maybe Trevor will take out some of the frustrations I was also feeling (and I think one or two others on this forum more than me) as his consistently good form in Europe last summer earned my cash on a number of occasions but failed to net either of us any titles.
GL
Justin Rose (9/1) for 0.25* e.w. @ 5dimes
I didn't detect any theme last year that repeated itself more often than connections to home cooking. As near as I can tell, Justin spent the holidays reconnecting in the South Africa of his birth and likely reflecting on quite an eventful year. His character has been forged to my liking and his charisma on and off the course tell me something special may be in his destiny. I think Justin's talent is still in its raw stages and some time soon a period of refinement like Woods and Faldo and others needed will be recognized as a necessity to take his game to its highest levels. But for now, it's all to play for and a spirited finish to last year shouldn't hurt his chances in getting this season underway. While his driving accuracy can come and go, he also seems to play some of his best golf on some of the most modern courses.
Trevor Immelman(11/1) for 0.25 e.w. @ Bet365
I can't pass up one more play after the heads up from Stanley on all the intimate local connections. Maybe Trevor will take out some of the frustrations I was also feeling (and I think one or two others on this forum more than me) as his consistently good form in Europe last summer earned my cash on a number of occasions but failed to net either of us any titles.
GL
Mid-point update:
Hurd/Blackey Leads by 6
Hurd/Bothma WON by 15
Clark/Casey WON by 15
Davis/Casey WON by 9
Wessels/McDowell All Square
Terblanche/Schwartzel Leads by 2
Rose 15th
Immelman 15th
Wall mc
Pleasing first update of the new season. Three wins in the bag and good positions in the other three matchups. Rose and Immelman are 7 shots behind Tim Clark (3rd in the rankings behind Rose & Immelman, but overlooked for being defending champion), but only 3 shots out of a place finish. One of them should manage that. If not Clark, should have stuck to the "sensible option" McNulty ... he is ahead of Rose and Immelman, while Wall missed the cut with 6 shots to spare!
Hurd/Blackey Leads by 6
Hurd/Bothma WON by 15
Clark/Casey WON by 15
Davis/Casey WON by 9
Wessels/McDowell All Square
Terblanche/Schwartzel Leads by 2
Rose 15th
Immelman 15th
Wall mc
Pleasing first update of the new season. Three wins in the bag and good positions in the other three matchups. Rose and Immelman are 7 shots behind Tim Clark (3rd in the rankings behind Rose & Immelman, but overlooked for being defending champion), but only 3 shots out of a place finish. One of them should manage that. If not Clark, should have stuck to the "sensible option" McNulty ... he is ahead of Rose and Immelman, while Wall missed the cut with 6 shots to spare!
Stan Don't know if track records with books or not but you have had an unbelievable run on matches @ Bet and Win. It has not been pretty for them boys over there:grins:
Cheers DTB :brows:
Final update:
Matchups: 4-2-0; +1.23 units
Hurd/Blackey WON by 3
Wessels/McDowell LOST by 3
Terblanche/Schwartzel LOST by 10
Outrights: 1-2; +4.13 units
Rose 8th
Immelman 1st
What a great finish by Immelman! Some great golf after an early double-bogey and a flawless play-off. Still very lucky that Clark gave up control of the event after 4 fluffs by the side of the 16th green yesterday. Rose had an early triple-bogey to take him out of contention, but was still only one shot out of finishing in a tie for 3rd place. The matchups took a nose-dive over the weekend, but the local boy made amends! Nice start to the new year
Nice call on Schwartzel Ian
Final update:
Matchups: 4-2-0; +1.23 units
Hurd/Blackey WON by 3
Wessels/McDowell LOST by 3
Terblanche/Schwartzel LOST by 10
Outrights: 1-2; +4.13 units
Rose 8th
Immelman 1st
What a great finish by Immelman! Some great golf after an early double-bogey and a flawless play-off. Still very lucky that Clark gave up control of the event after 4 fluffs by the side of the 16th green yesterday. Rose had an early triple-bogey to take him out of contention, but was still only one shot out of finishing in a tie for 3rd place. The matchups took a nose-dive over the weekend, but the local boy made amends! Nice start to the new year
Nice call on Schwartzel Ian
Final:
Des Terblanche - Charl Schwartzel 1 1.90 -lost
Gavin Levenson - Craig Lile 2 1.90 - won
Dougherty Nick - Webster Steve 2 1.85 - won
3/3.75 +0.75
Des Terblanche - Charl Schwartzel 1 1.90 -lost
Gavin Levenson - Craig Lile 2 1.90 - won
Dougherty Nick - Webster Steve 2 1.85 - won
3/3.75 +0.75
:clap:
You gents had all the bases covered as I believe Steve had the other playoff contender tipped.
Appreciate ya letting ole dogs ride along.--and Stan the E/W sure topped the place only wagers on this one
Ian scores on 1st 100/1 shot of 2003:toast:
You gents had all the bases covered as I believe Steve had the other playoff contender tipped.
Appreciate ya letting ole dogs ride along.--and Stan the E/W sure topped the place only wagers on this one
Ian scores on 1st 100/1 shot of 2003:toast:
DTB,
Yes I did have Clark as my only selection.
I had such a bad run in the latter half of last season that I decided not to post any more tips and just put them on the site for people daft enough to search them out. I don't like to think my ramblings may influence anyone and cost them money.
I was hoping my luck would turn in the New Year but that Clark 9 couple with Immelman's finish has got me wondering
But I was first to spot the early 8/1 Ernie and did put that up in another forum which may have profited some.... so there's always hope
Yes I did have Clark as my only selection.
I had such a bad run in the latter half of last season that I decided not to post any more tips and just put them on the site for people daft enough to search them out. I don't like to think my ramblings may influence anyone and cost them money.
I was hoping my luck would turn in the New Year but that Clark 9 couple with Immelman's finish has got me wondering
But I was first to spot the early 8/1 Ernie and did put that up in another forum which may have profited some.... so there's always hope
