South African Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (4pts):

David Drysdale to beat Espen Kofstad -120 @ BetVictor
Kofstad won his last event on the Challenge Tour, but this is still a big step-up to the main Tour and against a player who ranks 55th in the Race to Dubai standings. Kofstad's record in South Africa reads two missed cuts from two starts; Drysdale has had nine top-25 finishes in South Africa in just the last four years.

Peter Whiteford to beat Roope Kakko -120 @ 5Dimes
Another main Tour vs Challenge Tour matchup. Whiteford may be under some pressure this week - he ranks 113th in the Race to Dubai with the top-115 keeing their Tour Cards for 2013 - but Kakko is a player who hasn't earned a Tour Card via the Challenge Tour like Kofstad - Kakko finished 38th on the Challenge Tour Rankings. With finishes of 3rd and 20th (on this course) in his last two visits to South Africa, Whiteford has reason to be confident of playing well enough this week to keep his Card.

David Drysdale to beat Tommy Fleetwood -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power]
This season has been a huge disappointment for Fleetwood who tops the Challenge Tour Ranking last year - he lies 124th in the Race to Dubai and outside the cut line to keep his Tour Card for 2013. Drysdale has a 16-4-3 rd1 h2h lead against Fleetwood in 2012 and given that the Englishman is making his debut on this course, I doubt that he will reverse this imbalance h2h record this week.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fichardt tb Kofstad -120; Horne tb Justin Walters -120]

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Chris Swanepool(125/1) e.w.
James Kingston(80/1) e.w.
Allan Versfeld(100/1) e.w.
Merrick Bremner(125/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Henrik Stenson to beat Magnus A. Carlsson -140 @ 5Dimes
Another matchup between a main Tour player and a Challenge Tour player. Carlsson may have earned his European Tour Card for 2013 after finishing 6th on the Challenge Tour Rankings, but there is still a big gap between that level and that of Stenson who lies 2nd after the 1st round and led the field in greens in regulation.

Lloyd Saltman to beat Jaco Ahlers +105 @ 5Dimes
Two players who finished in the top-10 on this course last year, so home advantage should not be a major issue in this matchup. Opposing Ahlers though on the basis of his past performances when in contention - he is currently five shots off the pace. In the 13 previous times that he has been within five shots of the lead after 18 holes, he has finished the day closer to the lead just once.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

David Drysdale to beat Roope Kakko -110 @ 5Dimes
Drysdale has finished ahead of Kakko in 16 of their last 17 common events and it has been over four years since Kakko shot a lower 4th round score than Drysdale, so I don't see any reason to oppose Drysdale in this matchup.

Hennie Otto to beat Jaco Ahlers -130 @ 5Dimes
Ahlers' 79 in today's round saw him fall 44 places to 58th, so it is difficult to see him rebounding from such a fall from contention. Otto has the greater incentive for a good final performance being the defending South African Open champion. The other issue is the mismatch in this matchup: Otto holds a 35-6-1 h2h record against Ahlers.

Maarten Lafeber to beat Justin Harding -125 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Harding who has missed the cut in this last two Southern Africa Tour events and he only made this cut by a single shot. Lafeber is the better player and should remain ahead of Harding after the next round.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Saltman tb Bekker -125; Norris tb Bothma -105]