South African Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

Hennie Otto to beat George Coetzee -110 @ 5Dimes
Otto won this event in 2011 at Serengeti GC, but he also has a very good record on this course, finishing 2nd on each of his last two visits - in the last South African Open and in the 2013 BMG Classic. This contrasts sharply with Coetzee who is making his course debut, so, together with much stronger form in December, Otto should be the clear favourite in this matchup.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

George Coetzee(20/1) e.w.
- -

Jaco Ehlers(125/1) e.w.
- -

Espen Kofstad(150/1) e.w.
- -

Hennie Otto(18/1) e.w.
- -

David Drysdale(50/1) e.w.
- - Sad price for me to get sucked in, but he's been trending and has a long history in South Africa. Hold me back.

Niclas Fasth(400/1) e.w.
- - I can't quite fathom how he ranks #22 on the tour-tips site. In any event, this week some of his ghastly shots may not be punished much more than shots of some others which barely stray.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Matthew Fitzpatrick to beat Merrick Bremner -140 @ 5Dimes
A leap of faith, I suppose, with Fitzpatrick. He has shown great talent in Major Championships as an amateur in the last 18 months, but he hasn't really looked like winning a Tour event as a pro and now he is 54th after rd1. He did, however, close with two birdies in his final few holes to rescue his round, wheras Bremner closed with three fives. The South African does have a very good record in the BMG Classic on this course, but has struggled in these co-sanctioned events - his best finish in 29 in his home country is 9th with missed cuts in 17 of the 29 events.

Hennie Otto to beat Morten Orum Madsen -140 @ 5Dimes
Four-under-par after six holes, it looked as though Otto would win both this event as well as the first round matchup, but it wasn't so good from that point onwards in rd1. I do think that he will bounce back tomorrow, though, for all the reasons given in the rd1 play. Madsen struggled to finish on one-over-par today, but given his press interview, it was not surprising: 'When I tee it up tomorrow I'll be gunning for the best score I can shoot, but I don't really have expectations'. Those are the words of a player who has struggled since winning his maiden Tour event here last year and is not expecting to fare any better with the heightened pressure as defending champion this week.


[unofficial rd2 system plays: Otto tb Molinari -125; Madsen tb Bremner -116]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (6pts):

Richard Sterne to beat Andy Sullivan +100 @ Paddy Power
Easy to oppose Sullivan at plus-odds. He has never previously led a European Tour event at the end of a round and the only time that he did so on the Challenge Tour - 2012 Telenet Trophy - he then shot 76 in the next round. Sterne is a former winner of this event and should be able to take advantage of the enormous pressure on Sullivan tomorrow.

Branden Grace to beat Charl Schwartzel to beat +100 @ Paddy Power
Two birdies and an eagle in his last three holes was enough to propel Schwartzel into 2nd place and prime position to put pressure on playing partner, Sullivan, tomorrow. However, Grace has been in much better form than Schwartzel recently - he won the last European Tour evnet, Alfred Dunhill Championship - and in 13 common events in 2013, he never shot a higher rd3 score than Schwartzel. He's only six shots off the pace and could put some early pressure on the later pairings.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Del Moral tb Roos -105; Tadini tb Parry -125; Fasth tb Maddy +105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (6pts):

Pablo Martin Benavides to beat Colin Nel +110 @ ToteSport
Good odds to oppose a player who has never played an event outside the Southern Africa Tour and who starts the final round of a co-sanctioned event in 5th place. Both players struggled for form prior to Christmas, but Martin Benavides has far more experience of a top-5 position in this type of event - he won the 2010 Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa - so I doubt that he will struggle as much tomorrow.