Southern Farm Bureau cCassic
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
Not posted here for a while - but Chris Smith at 50/1 is a big price with William Hill - course form excellent and coming back to form in last few starts and with the wd of Roberts this price will not last.
Also have to give a mention to Shigeki - a standout at 66/1 Blue Square - hopefully getting back to his best after injury.
Also have to give a mention to Shigeki - a standout at 66/1 Blue Square - hopefully getting back to his best after injury.
Outright plays (1 unit):
Hidemichi Tanaka to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Siding with three in-form players rather than three with good histories on this course. Tanaka has not yet played Annandale, but having secured three top-6 finishes in his last five events, there are few in this field who can compete with that. Most of them share his missed cuts in the other two starts, but I suppose this 'boom or bust' approach is ideal for outright plays. Either way, his confidence should be high and Maruyama has led the way in helping Japanese players believe that they can win on this Tour.
Tim Clark to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
Siding with another President's Cup player who is in good form, but has yet to play on this course. Clark has followed up his 3rd place finish in the PGA Championship with finishes of 11th in Deutsche Bank Championship and 24th in the Texas Open last week, though he had been much better placed in-running. In that form and against a field missing the Tour leading players, he looks decent value at this price.
Tim Petrovic to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Petrovic has struggled to get any consistency this year, but he certainly seems to have achieved some form in the last two weeks. He has finished 2nd and 24th in that time, averaging 67.13 per round. Like the other selections, he does not have to worry about Q-School, which will concern many of this week's field, though he could get into the Tour Championship with a good week this week. And unlike the other selections, he does have course form as he finished in the top-25 last year. This price will fall, as will the others once the adjustments have been made for Loren Roberts' withdrawal.
Hidemichi Tanaka to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Siding with three in-form players rather than three with good histories on this course. Tanaka has not yet played Annandale, but having secured three top-6 finishes in his last five events, there are few in this field who can compete with that. Most of them share his missed cuts in the other two starts, but I suppose this 'boom or bust' approach is ideal for outright plays. Either way, his confidence should be high and Maruyama has led the way in helping Japanese players believe that they can win on this Tour.
Tim Clark to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
Siding with another President's Cup player who is in good form, but has yet to play on this course. Clark has followed up his 3rd place finish in the PGA Championship with finishes of 11th in Deutsche Bank Championship and 24th in the Texas Open last week, though he had been much better placed in-running. In that form and against a field missing the Tour leading players, he looks decent value at this price.
Tim Petrovic to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Petrovic has struggled to get any consistency this year, but he certainly seems to have achieved some form in the last two weeks. He has finished 2nd and 24th in that time, averaging 67.13 per round. Like the other selections, he does not have to worry about Q-School, which will concern many of this week's field, though he could get into the Tour Championship with a good week this week. And unlike the other selections, he does have course form as he finished in the top-25 last year. This price will fall, as will the others once the adjustments have been made for Loren Roberts' withdrawal.
will play an outright here
Lowery 1/2 unit to win 40/1 @ Pinnacle and 1/2 unit to place 8/1 @ 5dimes.
A winner here his last visit but does have some questionable current form,but apon reviewing past couple of years he has had several 2 place finishes that followed poor form and when he rolls can play with the best and I don't deem this crew the best. Appears to me his confidence level goes up against weak fields as with his win here a couple back and 2nds at the BC open-Air Canada and GMO past 2 years.
Lowery 1/2 unit to win 40/1 @ Pinnacle and 1/2 unit to place 8/1 @ 5dimes.
A winner here his last visit but does have some questionable current form,but apon reviewing past couple of years he has had several 2 place finishes that followed poor form and when he rolls can play with the best and I don't deem this crew the best. Appears to me his confidence level goes up against weak fields as with his win here a couple back and 2nds at the BC open-Air Canada and GMO past 2 years.
an invitation for disaster but-----
Quigley +103 over Damron
Baird -118 over Damron
Both Quiq and Baird have much better cut ratio-both have top 20 in past 2 years,Damron hasn't played-both have superior edge on ratings---and Damron pulled out of last weeks event prior to start.
Quigley +103 over Damron
Baird -118 over Damron
Both Quiq and Baird have much better cut ratio-both have top 20 in past 2 years,Damron hasn't played-both have superior edge on ratings---and Damron pulled out of last weeks event prior to start.
adding 72 holes @ Pinnacle
Crane -115 over Begay
Taking another shot at Begay this week who has made just 54% of cuts---Crane on the other hand making 70%
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
For you highrollers Pretty signifacant scalp on K Sutherland and Willis match as Sportingbet continues to hold @ -110 and Pinnacle has Willis @ +131---that is if Murph does not throw in a tie ---but enough room to bet the tie at SB and still have room to spare.
Crane -115 over Begay
Taking another shot at Begay this week who has made just 54% of cuts---Crane on the other hand making 70%
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
For you highrollers Pretty signifacant scalp on K Sutherland and Willis match as Sportingbet continues to hold @ -110 and Pinnacle has Willis @ +131---that is if Murph does not throw in a tie ---but enough room to bet the tie at SB and still have room to spare.
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Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):
Carl Paulson to beat Paul Azinger -135 @ Five Dimes
Paulson's form has improved recently with top-20 finishes in the last two weeks and with five years of course form that includes a 6th place finish in 2001, he should have a decent advantage over Zinger who has yet to play this course.
Kevin Sutherland to beat Robert Damron -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA [2 units]
Same in this matchup. Damron has yet to play this course and while he finished 8th on his last outing, he has missed four of his last eight cuts. Sutherland looks too consistent and can also boast a very high finish on his last outing.
(also available at Intertops and Ladbrokes)
Joe Durant to beat Heath Slocum -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Some signs of a renaissance from Durant who has made his last five cuts including a top-10 finish in the Greater Hartford Open and in terms of driving and greens in regulation, he is playing well, but not scoring quite at the same level. He should, though, beat Slocum who has missed three of his last six cuts.
Joe Durant to beat Garrett Willis -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
He should also beat Willis who has surprisingly made his last seven cuts. Quite an improvement on his previous form, but he is still a long way short of the playing ability of his opponent.
John Huston to beat Chris Smith -110 @ Bet365
Faced with current form or course form, I'd pick current form. In that department, Huston wins easily. He leads Smith 10-2-0 h2h over the past year, while Smith has missed three of his last six cuts. On course form, Smith three top-10 finishes in five visits is impressive, but he also missed the cut on the other two occasions and Huston did finish in the top-20 in his only previous visit in the last five years. He was also very impressive in the early stages of last week's event.
Carl Paulson to beat Paul Azinger -135 @ Five Dimes
Paulson's form has improved recently with top-20 finishes in the last two weeks and with five years of course form that includes a 6th place finish in 2001, he should have a decent advantage over Zinger who has yet to play this course.
Kevin Sutherland to beat Robert Damron -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA [2 units]
Same in this matchup. Damron has yet to play this course and while he finished 8th on his last outing, he has missed four of his last eight cuts. Sutherland looks too consistent and can also boast a very high finish on his last outing.
(also available at Intertops and Ladbrokes)
Joe Durant to beat Heath Slocum -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Some signs of a renaissance from Durant who has made his last five cuts including a top-10 finish in the Greater Hartford Open and in terms of driving and greens in regulation, he is playing well, but not scoring quite at the same level. He should, though, beat Slocum who has missed three of his last six cuts.
Joe Durant to beat Garrett Willis -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
He should also beat Willis who has surprisingly made his last seven cuts. Quite an improvement on his previous form, but he is still a long way short of the playing ability of his opponent.
John Huston to beat Chris Smith -110 @ Bet365
Faced with current form or course form, I'd pick current form. In that department, Huston wins easily. He leads Smith 10-2-0 h2h over the past year, while Smith has missed three of his last six cuts. On course form, Smith three top-10 finishes in five visits is impressive, but he also missed the cut on the other two occasions and Huston did finish in the top-20 in his only previous visit in the last five years. He was also very impressive in the early stages of last week's event.
I quiute fancy Carl Paulson each way for this event. Intersting he gets a positive mention from Stan in match betting. He has previously looked afraid to win but this could be time. It certainly is not a strong tourney. I also think that Garrett Willis has an each way chance. Garrett gets a negative mention from Stan but I prefer to think that his recent improvement is a positive.
Paulson at the prices is the better bet though and deserves full stake each way and Willis half stake each way.
Good Luck!
Paulson at the prices is the better bet though and deserves full stake each way and Willis half stake each way.
Good Luck!
at the cut 3-0-1
K Sutherland/Willis win
Crane/Begay win
Quig/Damron win
Baird/Damron push
Pending
Huston/Langer 10 up
Outright Lowery-cut
Only a bogie on the final hole by Baird (an easy par 5) marred a fortunate result.
Off to take a look whats out there today but will prob leave well enough alone.
K Sutherland/Willis win
Crane/Begay win
Quig/Damron win
Baird/Damron push
Pending
Huston/Langer 10 up
Outright Lowery-cut
Only a bogie on the final hole by Baird (an easy par 5) marred a fortunate result.
Off to take a look whats out there today but will prob leave well enough alone.
Finals
remaining 72 hole
Huston/Langer win
Matches week 4-0-1 + 4 units
Outrights -1 unit
Lowery-cut
Totals for week in Amex thread
remaining 72 hole
Huston/Langer win
Matches week 4-0-1 + 4 units
Outrights -1 unit
Lowery-cut
Totals for week in Amex thread
Final update:
Matchups: 4-1-0; +1.78 units
Paulson/Azinger WON by 2
Sutherland/Damron TIED (Lost)
Durant/Slocum WON by 7
Durant/Willis 6
Huston/Smith WON by 13
Outrights: 1-2; -0.33 units
Tanaka 4th
Clark 7th
Petrovic mc
Profitable event, but left to rue adding Petrovic at 40/1 who was 6th in my rankings at the expense of Huston who was also 40/1 but was 1st in my rankings. The reason: the had never won on Bentgrass greens ... until this week. Tanaka and Clark had been 2nd and 3rd at the cut, so still would have hoped for more than just a share of one place win and also disappointed that the only loss on the matchups was in the sole double-play and courtesy of the 'ties lose' rule. It could ve been a really good event!
PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 139-84; +42.47 units
18-holes: 107-115; -43.67 units
Outrights: 32-94; +63.91 units
All Tours ytd
Matchups: 360-258; +139.92 units
18-holes: 287-264; -25.55 units
Outrights: 85-320; +10.90 units
Matchups: 4-1-0; +1.78 units
Paulson/Azinger WON by 2
Sutherland/Damron TIED (Lost)
Durant/Slocum WON by 7
Durant/Willis 6
Huston/Smith WON by 13
Outrights: 1-2; -0.33 units
Tanaka 4th
Clark 7th
Petrovic mc
Profitable event, but left to rue adding Petrovic at 40/1 who was 6th in my rankings at the expense of Huston who was also 40/1 but was 1st in my rankings. The reason: the had never won on Bentgrass greens ... until this week. Tanaka and Clark had been 2nd and 3rd at the cut, so still would have hoped for more than just a share of one place win and also disappointed that the only loss on the matchups was in the sole double-play and courtesy of the 'ties lose' rule. It could ve been a really good event!
PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 139-84; +42.47 units
18-holes: 107-115; -43.67 units
Outrights: 32-94; +63.91 units
All Tours ytd
Matchups: 360-258; +139.92 units
18-holes: 287-264; -25.55 units
Outrights: 85-320; +10.90 units
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